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Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions

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  • Ginn, William

Abstract

Supply chain disruptions have emerged as a critical factor influencing global economic conditions. This research examines the implications of global supply chain disruptions via Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model as it relates to equity returns. The analysis reveals that supply chain shocks can be destabilizing via lower output, higher inflation and lower equity returns. These novel findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ginn, William, 2024. "Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:239:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111739
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    2. Elie Bouri & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Ruipeng Liu, 2024. "Supply Chain Constraints and the Predictability of the Conditional Distribution of International Stock Market Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 202440, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Do Shortages Forecast Aggregate and Sectoral U.S. Stock Market Realized Variance? Evidence from a Century of Data," Working Papers 202450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply chain disruptions; Output; Inflation; Equity returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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