IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v239y2024ics0165176524002222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Ginn, William

Abstract

Supply chain disruptions have emerged as a critical factor influencing global economic conditions. This research examines the implications of global supply chain disruptions via Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model as it relates to equity returns. The analysis reveals that supply chain shocks can be destabilizing via lower output, higher inflation and lower equity returns. These novel findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ginn, William, 2024. "Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:239:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524002222
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111739?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Baghersad, Milad & Zobel, Christopher W., 2021. "Assessing the extended impacts of supply chain disruptions on firms: An empirical study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Rene M. Stulz, 1999. "Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 7021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. William Ginn, 2024. "Does ENSO Impact Equity Returns? Evidence via Country and Panel Regression," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 345-364, April.
    5. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    7. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2007. "Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1081-1137, June.
    8. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, supply chain disruptions and U.S. inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    9. William Ginn, 2023. "World Output and Commodity Price Cycles," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 530-554, October.
    10. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    11. Ginn, William, 2023. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    12. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
    13. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Staff Reports 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Kevin B. Hendricks & Vinod R. Singhal, 2005. "Association Between Supply Chain Glitches and Operating Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 695-711, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2024. "Climate pattern effects on global economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. repec:hal:journl:hal-04828849 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Elie Bouri & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Ruipeng Liu, 2024. "Supply Chain Constraints and the Predictability of the Conditional Distribution of International Stock Market Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 202440, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Do Shortages Forecast Aggregate and Sectoral U.S. Stock Market Realized Variance? Evidence from a Century of Data," Working Papers 202450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Do Shortages Forecast Aggregate and Sectoral U.S. Stock Market Realized Variance? Evidence from a Century of Data," Working Papers 202450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:hal:journl:hal-04828849 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dufrénot, Gilles & Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2024. "Climate pattern effects on global economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Elie Bouri & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Ruipeng Liu, 2024. "Supply Chain Constraints and the Predictability of the Conditional Distribution of International Stock Market Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 202440, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. William Ginn, 2024. "Agricultural fluctuations and global economic conditions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1037-1056, August.
    6. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
    7. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.
    8. Ginn, William, 2023. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    9. Schmidt, Christoph G. & Wuttke, David A. & Heese, H. Sebastian & Wagner, Stephan M., 2023. "Antecedents of public reactions to supply chain glitches," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    10. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 937-959, October.
    11. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
    12. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2024. "Foreign exchange developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 123014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "How Large Is the Stress from the Common Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100341, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.
    15. Woldt, Jason J. & Prasad, Sameer, 2022. "Crises in global supply chains: The role of impression management communications," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    16. Viral V. Acharya & Jean Imbs & Jason Sturgess, 2011. "Finance and Efficiency: Do Bank Branching Regulations Matter?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 135-172.
    17. De la Torre, Augusto & Schmukler, Sergio, 2007. "Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 349, December.
    18. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    19. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 869-889, August.
    20. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2024. "Monetary policy developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 123004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply chain disruptions; Output; Inflation; Equity returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:239:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.