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In-sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models

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  • Rossi, Barbara
  • Carrasco, Marine

Abstract

This paper considers in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting in regressions with many exogenous predictors. We consider four dimension reduction devices: principal compo- nents, Ridge, Landweber Fridman, and Partial Least Squares. We derive rates of convergence for two representative models: an ill-posed model and an approximate factor model. The theory is developed for a large cross-section and a large time-series. As all these methods depend on a tuning parameter to be selected, we also propose data-driven selection methods based on cross- validation and establish their optimality. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to forecasting ináation and output growth in the U.S. show that data-reduction methods out- perform conventional methods in several relevant settings, and might e§ectively guard against instabilities in predictorsíforecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Barbara & Carrasco, Marine, 2016. "In-sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11388
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Regularization methods; Factor models; Ridge; Partial least squares; Principal components; Sparsity; Large datasets; Variable selection; Gdp forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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