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Can dual-currency sovereign CDS predict exchange rate returns?

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  • Pu, Xiaoling
  • Zhang, Jianing

Abstract

This paper examines both the time-series and cross-sectional variation in the difference between US dollar and Euro denominated sovereign CDS spreads for a group of Eurozone countries. We find that the spread difference between dual-currency sovereign CDS significantly affects the bilateral exchange rate returns. In addition, the difference could predict the cumulative exchange rate returns up to 10days. The results strongly suggest that the difference contains important information for the exchange rate dynamics at various phases of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Pu, Xiaoling & Zhang, Jianing, 2012. "Can dual-currency sovereign CDS predict exchange rate returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 157-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:9:y:2012:i:3:p:157-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2012.01.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    3. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Arreola-Hernandez, Jose & Bekiros, Stelios & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2018. "Risk transmitters and receivers in global currency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Sadaba, Barbara, 2018. "Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-264.
    5. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Xiao-Fen Zheng & Tom Fong, 2018. "Probabilistic approach to measuring early-warning signals of systemic contagion risk," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-25, June.
    6. Samuel Brazys & Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "From Tiger to PIIGS: Ireland and the use of heuristics in comparative political economy," Working Papers 201316, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign credit default swap; Exchange rate return;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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