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The reliability of output gap estimates in real time

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
  2. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
  3. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 867-901.
  4. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
  5. Mateusz Machaj, 2016. "Can the Taylor Rule be a Good Guidance for Policy? The Case of 2001-2008 Real Estate Bubble," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 381-395.
  6. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
  7. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 353-370.
  8. Planas, C. & Roeger, W. & Rossi, A., 2013. "The information content of capacity utilization for detrending total factor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 577-590.
  9. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
  10. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  11. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
  12. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  13. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  14. Alessandro Cianci, 2016. "Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio," a/ Working Papers Series 1601, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  15. Lucian Croitoru, 2016. "Are We Systematically Wrong when Estimating Potential Output and the Natural Rate of Interest?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 128-151, June.
  16. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
  17. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
  18. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
  19. Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
  20. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
  21. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, August.
  22. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 2000. "The expectations trap hypothesis," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q II), pages 21-39.
  24. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  25. Fabian Gunzinger & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "It's Politics, Stupid! Political Constraints Determined Governments' Reactions to the Great Recession," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 584-603, November.
  26. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
  27. Elisa Rubbo, 2023. "Networks, Phillips Curves, and Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1417-1455, July.
  28. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
  29. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Sven Langedijk & Martin Larch, 2011. "Testing EU fiscal surveillance: how sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 39-60.
  31. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the Euro Area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Working Papers hal-00972840, HAL.
  32. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Beck, Guenter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Central bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest-rate rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 1-17, October.
  34. Chiu, Adrian & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  35. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  36. Athanasios Orphanides, 2011. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  37. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 181-209, June.
  38. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819, September.
  39. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  40. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2009. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 4, pages 115-144, Central Bank of Chile.
  41. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2016. "The Positive Effect of Public Investment on Potential Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1347, OECD Publishing.
  42. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  43. Simon van Norden, 2015. "Estimates of Québec’s Growth Uncertainty," CIRANO Project Reports 2015rp-01, CIRANO.
  44. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
  45. Miguel de Carvalho & Gabriel Martos, 2022. "Modeling interval trendlines: Symbolic singular spectrum analysis for interval time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 167-180, January.
  46. Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2016. "Zu Produktionspotenzial und Produktionslücke in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2016.2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  47. Flamini Alessandro & Milas Costas, 2011. "Real-Time Optimal Monetary Policy with Undistinguishable Model Parameters and Shock Processes Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-43, March.
  48. Perry, Guillermo & Serven, Luis, 2003. "The anatomy of a multiple crisis : why was Argentina special and what can we learn from it?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3081, The World Bank.
  49. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Athanasios Orphanides, 2000. "Activist stabilization policy and inflation: the Taylor rule in the 1970s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
  52. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  53. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.
  54. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2022. "Financial Crises, Macroprudential Policy and the Reliability of Credit-to-GDP Gaps," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 625-667, December.
  55. Dunbar, Kwamie, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 event on U.S. banks’ financial soundness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  56. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
  57. Willman, Alpo, 2002. "Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach," Working Paper Series 153, European Central Bank.
  58. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
  59. Nadine Leiner-Killinger & Víctor López Pérez & Roger Stiegert & Giovanni Vitale, 2007. "Structural reforms in EMU and the role of monetary policy – a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 66, European Central Bank.
  60. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  61. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
  62. Arina Wischnewsky & David‐Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Financial stability and the Fed: Evidence from congressional hearings," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1192-1214, July.
  63. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
  64. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Papers 200923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  65. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  66. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  67. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
  68. Camila Figueroa & Jorge Fornero & Pablo García, 2019. "Hindsight vs. Real time measurement of the output gap: Implications for the Phillips curve in the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 854, Central Bank of Chile.
  69. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2011. "Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models," Working Papers 678, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  70. Maja Ivanovic & Marijana Mitrovic-Mijatovic & Milena Vucinic, 2017. "The Towards identification of gaps in data availability for maintaining financial stability – the case of Montenegro," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
  71. Simon van Norden, 2002. "Filtering for Current Analysis," Staff Working Papers 02-28, Bank of Canada.
  72. Marco Buti & Martin Larch & Fabio Balboni, 2009. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the EMU when cyclical conditions are uncertain," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 21-44, February.
  73. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  74. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
  75. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
  76. Dean Croushore, 2009. "Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 371-382.
  77. Paweł Baranowski & Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1910-1921, August.
  78. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
  79. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
  80. Brave, Scott A. & Gascon, Charles & Kluender, William & Walstrum, Thomas, 2021. "Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1261-1275.
  81. Pedro Elosegui & Mirta González & María Cecilia Pérez & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2022. "A Diffusion Index Analysis of the Argentinean Business Economic Cycle During the COVID-19 Pandemic," BCRA Working Paper Series 2022105, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  82. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Key Unobservables: Evidence from Large Industrial and Selected Inflation-Targeting Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 9, pages 285-370, Central Bank of Chile.
  83. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 81-93.
  84. Gries, Thomas & Fritz, Marlon & Wiechers, Lukas, 2023. "Growth with Mismatch - Theory and Evidence from TFP Estimates," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277660, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  85. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
  86. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  87. Guisinger Amy Y. & Jackson Laura E. & Owyang Michael T., 2024. "Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(4), pages 567-581.
  88. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0618, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  89. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2018. "Forecasting through the Rearview Mirror: Data Revisions and Bond Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 678-714.
  90. Vincenzo Cassino & Michael Joyce, 2003. "Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators," Bank of England working papers 195, Bank of England.
  91. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  92. Nelson, Charles R., 2008. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in retrospect and prospect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 202-206, October.
  93. Lavan Mahadeva & Alex Muscatelli, 2005. "National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 14, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  94. Dan Armeanu & Georgiana Camelia Crețan & Leonard Lache & Mihaela Mitroi, 2015. "Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy and Assessing the Sustainability of Economic Growth: A Multivariate Filter Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, March.
  95. Berger, Tino & Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Nowcasting the output gap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 18-34.
    • Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  96. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
  97. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
  98. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de La Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle," Post-Print hal-03389354, HAL.
  99. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
  100. Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
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  102. Duarte, Cláudia & Maria, José R. & Sazedj, Sharmin, 2020. "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 126-146.
  103. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
  104. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
  105. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule?: Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 917, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  106. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
  107. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy Rules and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 449-483, February.
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  109. Koichiro Kamada & Ichiro Muto, 2000. "Forward-looking Models and Monetary Policy in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
  110. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
  111. Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
  112. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
  113. Val鲩e Chouard & Daniel Fuentes Castro & Delphine Irac & Matthieu Lemoine, 2014. "Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(23), pages 2711-2720, August.
  114. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
  115. Bauer, Christian & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2017. "Forecast uncertainty and the Taylor rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 99-116.
  116. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
  117. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
  118. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
  119. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  120. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Post-Print halshs-01821825, HAL.
  121. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "A century of gaps: Untangling business cycles from secular trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  122. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
  123. Tommaso Proietti & Marco Fioramanti & Cecilia Frale & Libero Monteforte, 2020. "A Systemic Approach to Estimating the Output Gap for the Italian Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 465-493, September.
  124. Carstensen, Kai, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  125. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
  126. Calista Cheung & Luke Frymire & Lise Pichette, 2020. "Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?," Discussion Papers 2020-14, Bank of Canada.
  127. Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Cyclical Dynamics and Trend/Cycle Definitions: Comparing the HP and Hamilton Filters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 151-162, November.
  128. Jens Klose, 2018. "Determinants of the Eurosystem's Central Banks Provisions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 328-349, September.
  129. Troy Davig & Michael Redmond, 2014. "Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, December.
  130. Stefan Leist & Klaus Neusser, 2010. "Measuring the Natural Output Level by DSGE Models: An Empirical Investigation for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 275-300, March.
  131. Peter D. Williams & Mr. Yasser Abdih & Emanuel Kopp, 2020. "Reading the Stars," IMF Working Papers 2020/136, International Monetary Fund.
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