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The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe: Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?

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Listed:
  • Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
  • Mr. Dustin Smith
  • Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorptionreducing effect, as a tighter fiscal stance acts as a brake on capital flows; and (ii) an unconventional absorption-boosting effect, as a tighter fiscal stance increases investor confidence in the country. The empirical results suggest that push factors (low returns in flow-originating countries), rather than pull factors (high returns in flow-destination countries), drove most of the private capital flows to emerging Europe. And active countercyclical fiscal policy once the fiscal stance is adjusted for the automatic effects on the fiscal position of both internal and external imbalances acted as a brake on capital inflows. However, the empirical results also suggest that, even abstracting from political feasibility and fiscal policy lag considerations, countercyclical fiscal policy alone is unlikely to be an effective policy tool to put an effective brake on sudden capital flow surges.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Mr. Dustin Smith & Mr. Albert Jaeger, 2012. "The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe: Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?," IMF Working Papers 2012/222, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra & Randjelovic, Sasa, 2017. "Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 367-378.
    3. Servaas Storm & C.W.M. Naastepad, 2015. "NAIRU economics and the Eurozone crisis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 843-877, November.
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paulo José Regis, 2015. "The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 445-468, August.
    5. Islam, Roumeen, 2013. "Macroeconomic context and fiscal policy : Europe and Central Asia during 2000-2012," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6621, The World Bank.
    6. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    7. Servaas Storm & C.W.M. Naastepad, 2016. "Myths, Mix-ups, and Mishandlings: Understanding the Eurozone Crisis," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 46-71, January.
    8. Harkmann, Kersti & Staehr, Karsten, 2021. "Current account drivers and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Milena Lipovina-Božoviæ & Maja Ivanoviæ, 2018. "Capital flows in Montenegro: SVAR model," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 647-675.
    10. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2024. "Inflation targeting and capital flows: A tale of two cycles in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Kersti Harkmann & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Current account dynamics and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
    12. Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Mr. Jonathan F Manning & Jesmin Rahman, 2013. "Rebalancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2013/074, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Kluge, Jan & Lappoehn, Sarah & Plank, Kerstin, 2020. "The Determinants of Economic Competitiveness," IHS Working Paper Series 24, Institute for Advanced Studies.

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