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An Econometric Study of Forecasting French Foreign Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Augustine C. Arize
  • Ioannis N. Kallianiotis
  • John Malindretos
  • Alexis Panayides
  • Cheickna Sylla

Abstract

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to study possible diversity of exchange rate models, by applying both parametric and nonparametric techniques, and examines said models’ collective predictive performance. Design/Methodology/Approach: We shall choose the forecasting predictor with the smallest Root Mean Square Forecast Error (RMSE). The better type of exchange rate model is in the Autoregressive model’s equation, according to the empirical evidence, although none of this data yields an optimal forecast. Findings: In our conclusion, the error correction versions of these exchange rate models will be adjusted so that credible long-run elasticities can be imposed on each model’s fundamental variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustine C. Arize & Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & John Malindretos & Alexis Panayides & Cheickna Sylla, 2021. "An Econometric Study of Forecasting French Foreign Exchange Rates," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 11(1), pages 3-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:ijfirm:v:11:y:2021:i:1:p:3-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficiency; exchange rate determination; exchange rate policy; forecasting; foreign exchange policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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