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Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?

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  • Nataliia Ostapenko

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

Abstract

The paper compares different output gap measures regarding their real-time reliability and usefulness for predicting inflation in Slovakia. The results indicate that estimated cycles from the Modified Hamilton filter, a Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Vector Autoregression and a Dynamic Factor Model are economically reasonable, similar in magnitudes to the official central bank estimate and, more importantly, stable over time. Furthermore, among all compared output gap estimates, the gap from the Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression can predict Slovak inflation better than other estimates of the cyclical position until the recent period of high inflation in 2021–2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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