IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v59y2020i1d10.1007_s00181-019-01631-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real-time US GDP gap properties using Hamilton’s regression-based filter

Author

Listed:
  • Kristian Jönsson

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

It has been previously documented that the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter exhibits real-time instability such that the estimates of trend and cycle components from an aggregate time series are revised both as more data become available and previously available data are revised. An alternative to the HP filter has recently been suggested by Hamilton (Rev Econ Stat 100(5):831–843, 2018). The current article investigates and compares the HP and the Hamilton filters with respect to real-time stability in US GDP gap estimation. The results reveal that the Hamilton filter outperforms the HP filter when it comes to real-time revisions. The source of the inferior performance of the HP filter is found to be the fact that component estimates close to the end of the sample are revised to a large extent for the HP filter even when only a few more data points are added to the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Real-time US GDP gap properties using Hamilton’s regression-based filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 307-314, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01631-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01631-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-019-01631-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-019-01631-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
    4. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    5. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    6. Adriana Cornea-Madeira, 2017. "The Explicit Formula for the Hodrick-Prescott Filter in a Finite Sample," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 314-318, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yahya, Farzan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Disentangling the asymmetric effect of financialization on the green output gap," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Karanfil, Fatih, 2023. "Fiscal policy in oil and gas-exporting economies: Good times, bad times and ugly times," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Yoosoon Chang & Yong-gun Kim & Boreum Kwak & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Using Density Forecast for Growth-at-Risk to Improve Mean Forecast of GDP Growth in Korea," CAEPR Working Papers 2024-005 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    3. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Cyclical Dynamics and Trend/Cycle Definitions: Comparing the HP and Hamilton Filters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 151-162, November.
    5. Ince, Onur & Papell, David H., 2013. "The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 713-721.
    6. Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 8911, CESifo.
    7. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2023. "The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1101-1111, November.
    8. Duarte, Cláudia & Maria, José R. & Sazedj, Sharmin, 2020. "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 126-146.
    9. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
    11. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
    12. Wolf, Elias & Mokinski, Frieder & Schüler, Yves, 2020. "On adjusting the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter," Discussion Papers 11/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    14. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
    15. Xueting Yu & Yuhan Zhu & Guangming Lv, 2020. "Analysis of the Impact of China’s GDP Data Revision on Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Uncertainty," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1251-1274, May.
    16. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1167-1188, September.
    17. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Lucyna Gornicka, 2020. "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?," IMF Working Papers 2020/024, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    19. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; HP filter; Recursive estimation; Real-time revisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01631-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.