IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/hal-02988080.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robert J. Gordon and the Introduction of the Natural Rate Hypothesis in the Keynesian Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Goutsmedt

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Goulven Rubin

    (PHARE - Philosophie, Histoire et Analyse des Représentations Économiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

This article studies the dissemination of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Hypothesis (nrh) in macroeconomics during the 1970s, by studying the reaction of Robert J. Gordon to the argument of Friedman (1968). In the early 1970s, Gordon opposed the nrh, arguing that the estimated parameter on expected inflation was below one. Confronting to new data and to rising inflation, Gordon adopted the nrh after 1973. Nevertheless, the adoption anticipated any clear empirical proof. We explain that this conversion was due to Friedman's influence on Gordon, but also to the fact it did not prevent Gordon to support active stabilization policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the Introduction of the Natural Rate Hypothesis in the Keynesian Framework," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02988080, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-02988080
    DOI: 10.19272/201806103008
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02988080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02988080/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.19272/201806103008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cukierman, Alex, 1974. "A Test of the "No Trade Off in the Long Run" Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1080, November.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Gordon, Robert J., 1976. "Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 185-219, April.
    4. Robert J. Gordon & Arthur M. Okun & Herbert Stein, 1980. "Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 101-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gordon, Robert J, 1978. "What Can Stabilization Policy Achieve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 335-341, May.
    6. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzón-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2017. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Pragmatic Replies," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01625169, HAL.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 1972. "Wage-Price Controls and the Shifting Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(2), pages 385-421.
    8. Franco Modigliani, 1977. "The monetarist controversy; or, should we forsake stabilization policies?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr suppl, pages 27-46.
    9. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Pinzón-Fuchs, Erich & Sergi, Francesco & Renault, Matthieu, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," OSF Preprints qxh46, Center for Open Science.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    12. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    13. Taylor, John B., 1997. "A Core of Practical Macroeconomics," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1-3.
    14. Robert J. Gordon, 1970. "Prices in 1970: The Horizontal Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 449-458.
    15. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    16. Gordon, Robert J, 1975. "The Demand for and Supply of Inflation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 807-836, December.
    17. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2013. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 255-288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Robert J. Gordon, 1977. "Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 253-279.
    19. Robert J. Gordon, 1977. "World Inflation and Monetary Accommodation in Eight Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 409-478.
    20. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-1171, September.
    21. Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "The Impact of Aggregate Demand on Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 613-670.
    22. Robert J. Gordon, 1973. "The Responses of Wages and Prices to the First Two Years of Controls," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 765-780.
    23. Gordon, Robert J, 1982. "Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1087-1117, December.
    24. George L. Perry, 1970. "Changing Labor Markets and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 411-448.
    25. Gordon, Robert J, 1975. "The Demand for and Supply of Inflation: Reply to Brunner's Comments," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 871-874, December.
    26. George Akerlof & William Dickens & George Perry, 1996. "Low Inflation or No Inflation: Should the Federal Reserve Pursue Complete Price Stability?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 11-17, September.
    27. William Fellner, 1979. "The Credibility Effect and Rational Expectations: Implications of the Gramlich Study," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 167-190.
    28. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Thomas Sargent face à Robert Lucas : une autre ambition pour la Nouvelle Economie Classique," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    29. Robert J. Gordon, 1971. "Inflation in Recession and Recovery," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 2(1), pages 105-166.
    30. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    31. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    32. Perry, George L, 1973. "The Success of Anti-Inflation Policies in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 569-593, Part II F.
    33. Forder, James, 2014. "Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199683659.
    34. Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 183-206.
    35. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    36. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    37. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    38. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May.
    39. Gordon, Robert J, 1977. "The Theory of Domestic Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 128-134, February.
    40. Robert J. Gordon, 1973. "The Welfare Cost of Higher Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 133-206.
    41. Robert J. Gordon, 1971. "Steady Anticipated Inflation: Mirage or Oasis?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 2(2), pages 499-510.
    42. Robert J. Gordon, 1970. "The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(1), pages 8-47.
    43. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
    44. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    45. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    46. Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-243, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rancan, Antonella, 2021. "The “Place Of The Phillips Curve” in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the First Federal Reserve Board’s Model (1966-1980s)," OSF Preprints t5jrx, Center for Open Science.
    2. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2022. "How the Phillips Curve Shaped Full Employment Policy in the 1970s: The Debates on the Humphrey-Hawkins Act," Post-Print hal-03878346, HAL.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzón-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," Post-Print hal-03878386, HAL.
    4. Matthieu Renault, 2018. "Edmond Malinvaud´s Criticisms of the New Classical Economics: Restoring the Nature and the Rationale of the Old Keynesians´ Opposition," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    4. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The Post-War U.S. Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Econometric History," Working Papers 1994-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    6. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    7. Backhouse, Roger E. & Forder, James & Laskaridis, Christina, 2023. "The natural rate of unemployment and the NAIRU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    10. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    11. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    12. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    13. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    14. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    15. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Post-Print halshs-01625188, HAL.
    16. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2012. "Taylor rules and the Great Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 903-918.
    19. Sunil Paul & Sartaj Rasool Rather & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Money and Inflation: Evidence from P-Star Model," Working Papers 2015-115, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    20. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-02988080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.