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Estimated monetary policy rules for the ECB with granular variations of forecast horizons for inflation and output

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  • Klose, Jens

Abstract

How does the European Central Bank (ECB) respond to inflation and output? To answer this question, we build a granular real-time database for inflation and output linked directly on the decision dates of the ECB. We develop daily forecasts for those two variables for a forecast horizon of up to fourteen months. We apply three different monetary policy rules, four different forecast data sources, three different ways of data computation and with respect to three different interest rates. The results indicate that the various data sources and computation approaches do not substantially change the findings. Those can be different for the monetary policy rule applied or the interest rate used. The results tend to be time-varying. In general, the forecast horizon for inflation is rather long-term, while the picture for output is less clear. Financial market participants can use the findings as it makes ECB monetary policy more predictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Klose, Jens, 2023. "Estimated monetary policy rules for the ECB with granular variations of forecast horizons for inflation and output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:127:y:2023:i:c:s026499932300278x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106466
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rules; ECB; Forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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