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Financial Stability and the Fed: Evidence fromCongressional Hearings

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  • Arina Wischnewsky
  • David-Jan Jansen
  • Matthias Neuenkirch

Abstract

This paper retraces how financial stability considerations interacted with U.S.monetary policy before and during the Great Recession. Using text-miningtechniques, we construct indicators for financial stability sentiment expressedduring testimonies of four Federal Reserve Chairs at Congressional hearings.Including these text-based measures adds explanatory power to Taylor-rulemodels. In particular, negative financial stability sentiment coincided with amore accommodative monetary policy stance than implied by standard Taylor-rule factors, even in the decades before the Great Recession. These findings areconsistent with a preference for monetary policy reacting to financial instabil-ity rather than acting pre-emptively to a perceived build-up of risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Arina Wischnewsky & David-Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2019. "Financial Stability and the Fed: Evidence fromCongressional Hearings," Working Paper Series 2019-05, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:qfrawp:201905
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Han, Xinfen & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "More than words: Fed Chairs’ communication during congressional testimonies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
    3. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Johannes Zahner, 2020. "Above, but close to two percent. Evidence on the ECB’s inflation target using text mining," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202046, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Kazinnik, Sophia & Papell, David H., 2021. "Monetary policy rules in practice: The case of Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 308-320.
    6. Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria & Karminsky, Alexander, 2022. "When central bank research meets Google search: A sentiment index of global financial stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Ahmad S. Al Humssi & Vladimir Z. Chapliuk & Larisa N. Sorokina & Liliya G. Akhmetshina, 2024. "Modelling the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Country’s Financial Stability: Evidence from the Russian Federation," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 62-81.
    9. Wang, Hao & Xu, Ning & Yin, Haiyan & Ji, Hao, 2022. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on financial stability in China after crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Baumgärtner, Martin & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker: Embedding their words using neural networks," IMFS Working Paper Series 194, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    11. Andres Algaba & David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Samuel Borms & Kris Boudt, 2020. "Econometrics Meets Sentiment: An Overview Of Methodology And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 512-547, July.
    12. Ruman, Asif M., 2023. "A Comparative Textual Study of FOMC Transcripts Through Inflation Peaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Hayo, Bernd & Henseler, Kai & Steffen Rapp, Marc & Zahner, Johannes, 2022. "Complexity of ECB communication and financial market trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Curi, Claudia & Murgia, Lucia Milena, 2023. "Forecast Targeting and Financial Stability: Evidence from the European Central Bank and Bank of England," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; financial stability; Taylor rule; text mining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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