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Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Sánchez-Fung, José R.

Abstract

The paper estimates McCallum and Taylor monetary policy reaction functions, hybrids mixing instruments and targets from the two frameworks, and nominal feedback mechanisms for 20 emerging market economies. The choice of framework employed in analysing each country is informed by the corresponding institutional setting. McCallum-Taylor specifications with an interest rate instrument and a nominal income gap target perform better than benchmark Taylor reaction functions in describing monetary policy in inflation targeting economies. Estimating reaction functions for economies operating monetary and exchange rate targeting regimes produces mixed results, while the nominal feedback rules reveal a lean-with-the-wind behaviour in two out of three economies.

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:21:y:2011:i:2:p:207-228
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    7. René Cabral & Francisco G. Carneiro & André Varella Mollick, 2020. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 605-626, February.
    8. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    9. William Miles & Sam Schreyer, 2012. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand? A quantile regression analysis," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 155-166, November.
    10. Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2015. "Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
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    14. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Leonardo Villar & Cesar Pabon, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-473, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    16. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    17. Riikka Nuutilainen, 2015. "Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 461-486, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    McCallum and Taylor rules Nominal feedback rule Monetary policy Inflation targeting Emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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