IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bxr/bxrceb/y2006v49i1p59-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, estimation of a multivariate structural time series model

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Moës

Abstract

A multivariate structural time series model is applied to the factor inputs of a production function to estimate the Belgian output gap. The number of independent cycles and the frequencies are not restricted a priori. Phase shifts are introduced to allow for leads and lags. Over 1983-2004, a 3.5 years periodicity is found in the cycles. The cycles in the participation and unemployment rates are negligible. Two independent cycles hide behind the cycles of the other variables: hours, TFP and capacity utilization. Phase shifts are significant, with hours leading by as much as 3 quarters and capacity utilization lagging.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, estimation of a multivariate structural time series model," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(1), pages 59-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2006:v:49:i:1:p:59-89
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/13214/1/ber-1100.pdf
    File Function: ber-1100
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "La croissance européenne perturbée par un cycle de courte période," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 83-100.
    3. Cécile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 247, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    5. Gerhard Runstler, 2004. "Modelling phase shifts among stochastic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 232-248, June.
    6. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    7. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
    8. Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, May.
    9. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
    10. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    11. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Valle e Azevedo, Joao & Koopman, Siem Jan & Rua, Antonio, 2006. "Tracking the Business Cycle of the Euro Area: A Multivariate Model-Based Bandpass Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 278-290, July.
    13. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2002. "The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 182, European Central Bank.
    14. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "A multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "The Euro area business cycle: stylized facts and measurement issues," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10173, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Moës, 2012. "Multivariate models with dual cycles: implications for output gap and potential growth measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 791-818, June.
    2. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Working Paper Research 136, National Bank of Belgium.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027422, HAL.
    4. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
    5. Tatiana Cesaroni & Carmine Pappalardo, 2008. "Long run and short run dynamics in italian manufacturing labour productivity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(15), pages 1-11.
    6. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
    7. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    8. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 9, pages 385-433, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Matthieu Lemoine, 2005. "A model of the stochastic convergence between business cycles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations: Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 2005/228, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
    14. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
    16. Gabriel RODRIGUEZ, 2010. "Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, And The Nairu For Peru, 1979-2007," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    17. João Valle e Azevedo, 2007. "A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter," Working Papers w200717, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
    19. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
    20. Tommaso Proietti & Marco Fioramanti & Cecilia Frale & Libero Monteforte, 2020. "A Systemic Approach to Estimating the Output Gap for the Italian Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 465-493, September.
    21. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano, 2016. "The trend–cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve: Bayesian estimates for Italy and the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1565-1587, June.
    22. Matteo M. Pelagatti, 2005. "Business cycle and sector cycles," Econometrics 0503006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Němec, Daniel, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    24. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU for Peru," Working Papers 2009-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; output gap; phase shifts; structural time series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2006:v:49:i:1:p:59-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dulbebe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.