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La croissance européenne perturbée par un cycle de courte période

Author

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  • Guilhem Bentoglio
  • Jacky Fayolle
  • Matthieu Lemoine

Abstract

[fre] La croissance européenne perturbée par un cycle de courte période . . Comment réagir quand les indicateurs conjoncturels donnent des signaux divergents, signes d’une situation économique en apparence troublée et hésitante, comme par exemple en 1998? Comment interpréter les écarts de conjoncture entre les pays européens? Ces questions, cruciales pour le conjoncturiste comme pour les instances de politique économique, peuvent être éclairées par l’analyse cyclique des PIB des pays européens. Si l’on observe la zone euro au niveau agrégé sur longue période, le cycle conjoncturel européen se décompose en fait en deux cycles de périodes distinctes: aux fluctuations généralement étudiées, d’ordre décennal et liées aux mouvements de l’investissement, s’ajoute un cycle court, d’environ trois ans, lié aux variations de stocks. La combinaison de ces deux cycles distincts permet d’interpréter plus aisément des épisodes apparemment hésitants de la conjoncture et d’apprécier l’opportunité d’une décision de politique économique, étant donnés les délais de diffusion à l’économie réelle. Un cycle de courte période se retrouve dans la plupart des pays de la zone euro. Ces cycles courts nationaux présentent des profils analogues à celui de la zone agrégée. Cependant, les fluctuations cycliques de court terme ne peuvent se réduire à une unique composante européenne: des groupes de pays apparaissent, conduits par l’Allemagne, la France et l’Italie, dont la synchronisation varie au cours du temps. Ainsi, un pays de la zone peut s’écarter de la conjoncture européenne, ce qui pose la question de la répartition des rôles en termes de politique économique européenne et du niveau d’action pertinent. [spa] El crecimiento europeo perturbado por un ciclo de corto periodo . . ¿ Cómo reacccionar cuando los indicadores coyunturales dan señales divergentes, signos de una situación económica aparentemente perturbada e indecisa, como por ejemplo en 1998? ¿ Cómo interpretar las diferencias de coyuntura entre los países europeos? Estas preguntas, importantísimas para el coyunturista y para los organismos de política económica, pueden encontrar una respuesta en el análisis cíclico de los PIB de los países europeos. Si se observa la zona euro a nivel agregado en un largo periodo, el ciclo coyuntural europeo se descompone de hecho en dos ciclos de periodos distintos: a las fluctuaciones generalmente estudiadas de tipo decenal y relacionadas con los movimientos de las inversiones, hay que añadir un ciclo corto, de unos tres años, relacionado con las variaciones de las existencias. La combinación de estos dos ciclos distintos permite interpretar con mayor comodidad unos episodios aparentemente indecisos de la coyuntura y apreciar la oportunidad de una decisión de política económica, teniendo en cuenta los plazos de difusión a la economía real. Un ciclo de corto periodo se da también en la mayor parte de los países de la zona euro. Estos ciclos cortos nacionales tienen unos perfiles análogos al de la zona agregada. Sin embargo, las fluctuaciones cíclicas de corto plazo no pueden limitarse a un solo componente europeo: unos grupos de países aparecen, encabezados por Alemania, Francia e Italia, cuya sincronización varía en el tiempo. De este modo, un país de la zona puede apartarse de la coyuntura europea, lo que plantea la cuestión del reparto de los roles en cuanto a política económica europea y al nivel de acción conveniente. [ger] Beeinträchtigung des europäischen Wachstums durch einen Zyklus von kurzer Dauer . . Wie soll reagiert werden, wenn die Konjunkturindikatoren unterschiedliche Signale aussenden, Signale einer offenbar gestörten und zögerlichen Wirtschaftslage wie im Jahre 1998? Wie lassen sich die Konjunkturabweichungen zwischen den europäischen Ländern interpretieren? Diese für die Konjunkturforscher wie auch für die wirtschaftspolitischen Instanzen wesentlichen Fragen können durch die zyklische Analyse der BIP der europäischen Länder erhellt werden. Wenn man die Euro-Zone auf aggregierter Ebene in einem langen Zeitraum beobachtet, stellt man fest, dass der Konjunkturzyklus in Europa zwei Zyklen unterschiedlicher Dauer umfasst: zu den allgemein untersuchten Schwankungen, die sich über ein Jahrzehnt erstrecken und auf die Investitionsentwicklungen zurückzuführen sind, kommt ein kurzer Zyklus von ca. drei Monaten, der durch die Vorratsveränderungen bedingt ist, hinzu. Die Kombination dieser beiden unterschiedlichen Zyklen erleichtert die Interpretation der konjunkturellen Zeiträume, die offensichtlich von einer zögerlichen Haltung geprägt sind, und ermöglicht eine Bewertung der Zweckmäßigkeit einer wirtschaftspolitischen Entscheidung aufgrund der zeitlichen Auswirkungen auf die Realwirtschaft. Ein Zyklus von kurzer Dauer ist in den meisten Ländern der Euro-Zone festzustellen. Diese kurzen nationalen Zyklen weisen Profile auf, die demjenigen der aggregierten Zone entsprechen. Die kurzfristigen zyklischen Schwankungen lassen sich aber nicht auf eine einzige europäische Komponente reduzieren: zu beobachten sind Gruppen von Ländern, die von Deutschland, Frankreich und Italien angeführt werden, deren Synchronisation im Laufe der Zeit variiert. So kann ein Land der Euro-Zone aus der europäischen Konjunktur ausscheren, was die Frage nach der wirtschaftspolitischen Rollenverteilung in Europa und dem relevanten Aktionsniveau aufwirft. [eng] European Growth Disrupted by a Short Cycle . . How should we react when economic indicators convey conflicting signals, signs of an apparently troubled and hesitant economic situation, as in 1998? How should we interpret economic deviations between European countries? A cyclical analysis of the European countries’ GDPs can shed light on these questions, which are central to both cyclical economists and economic policy bodies. An observation of the euro zone at an aggregate level over a long period shows that the European business cycle actually breaks down into two cycles of distinct periods. In addition to the generally studied fluctuations, which are decennial and related to investment movements, there is a short cycle of approximately three years linked to stock variations. These two distinct cycles can be combined for an easier interpretation of the apparently hesitant episodes in the business cycle and for an assessment of the advisability of an economic policy decision, given the time taken for it to reach the real economy. A short cycle can be found in most of the euro zone countries. These national short cycles bear similar curves to the aggregate zone cycle. However, the shortrun cyclical fluctuations cannot come down to a single European component. Groups of countries appear •headed by Germany, France and Italy •whose synchronisation varies over time. Hence a country in the zone may deviate from the European business cycle. This raises the question of the distribution of European economic policy roles and the pertinent level of action.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "La croissance européenne perturbée par un cycle de courte période," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 83-100.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2002_num_359_1_7362
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2002.7362
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2002.7362
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    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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    3. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2001. "Unité et pluralité du cycle européen," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 78(3), pages 9-73.
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    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    1. Verne, Jean-François, 2011. "Les principales caractéristiques du cycle économique et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(2), pages 117-136, juin.
    2. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, estimation of a multivariate structural time series model," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(1), pages 59-91.
    3. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Working papers 157, Banque de France.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Ibourk, Aomar, 2005. "Le Cycle des affaires dans les pays MENA Une Application du Filtre Hodrick-Prescott [The Business Cycle in MENA Application of a Hodrick-Prescott Filter]," MPRA Paper 46115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Parnaudeau, Miia, 2008. "European Business Fluctuations in the Austrian Framework," MPRA Paper 25046, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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