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Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach

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  • HacıoÄŸlu Hoke, Sinem
  • Aikman, David
  • Bridges, Jonathan
  • O'Neill, Cian
  • Raja, Akash

Abstract

Using quantile regressions applied to a panel dataset of 16 advanced economies, we examine how downside risk to growth over the medium term is affected by a set of macroprudential indicators. We find that credit and property price booms, and wide current account deficits increase downside risks 3 to 5 years ahead. However, such downside risks can be partially mitigated by increasing the capital ratio of the banking system. We show that GDP-at-Risk, defined as the the 5th quantile of the projected GDP growth distribution three years ahead, deteriorated in the US in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis, driven by rapid growth in credit and house prices alongside a widening current account deficit. Our results suggest such indicators could provide useful information for the stance of macroprudential policy.

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  • HacıoÄŸlu Hoke, Sinem & Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & O'Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2021. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 15864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15864
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    Keywords

    Financial stability; Gdp-at-risk; Macroprudential policy; Quantile regressions; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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