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Vorschläge zur Modifikation der Potenzialschätzung der Bundesregierung im Vergleich

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Hoffmann, Timo

Abstract

Damit vorübergehende konjunkturelle Schwankungen nicht auf die Planung und den Vollzug des Haushalts durchschlagen, wird im Rahmen der Schuldenbremse ein Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren durchgeführt, das in schwächeren Zeiten zusätzliche Verschuldung erlaubt und in stärkeren Phasen entsprechende Überschüsse verlangt. Im Koalitionsvertrag wurde vereinbart, die Konjunkturbereinigung der Bundesregierung zu evaluieren und gegebenenfalls zu modifizieren. Zu diesem Zweck hatte das Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz einen Beteiligungsprozess ins Leben gerufen, bei dem Verbesserungsvorschläge eingereicht werden konnten. Die Autoren stellen im Rahmen ihres Beitrags die Evaluation der Einreichungen anhand eines Echtzeitdatensatzes der Projektionen der Bundesregierung aus den vergangenen zehn Jahren dar. Neben diesen Einreichungen werden zudem weitere Modifikationen und statistische Filterverfahren ausgewertet. Die Autoren kommen zu dem wesentlichen Ergebnis, dass sich keines der untersuchten Verfahren entlang aller zugrunde gelegten Kriterien als überlegen erweist.

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Hoffmann, Timo, 2023. "Vorschläge zur Modifikation der Potenzialschätzung der Bundesregierung im Vergleich," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkbw:45
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