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GDP Data Revisions in Macedonia – Is There Any Systematic Pattern?

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  • Bogoev, Jane
  • Ramadani, Gani

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of any systematic relationship between preliminary estimates and subsequent revisions of GDP growth rates in Macedonia. Accordingly, we use various statistical tools for testing the 'news' and 'noise' hypotheses and empirically assess if GDP data revisions are unbiased and efficient and vice versa. The results based on different empirical approaches in general provide mixed results about the predictability of GDP revisions, although the empirical evidence tends to incline that the long-term and final GDP revisions are efficient and contain new information that is in line with the 'news' hypothesis. We conclude that each subsequent revision is unpredictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogoev, Jane & Ramadani, Gani, 2012. "GDP Data Revisions in Macedonia – Is There Any Systematic Pattern?," MPRA Paper 70170, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70170
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
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    4. S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
    5. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Olivier Roodenburg, 2004. "On the predictability of GDP data revisions in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 004, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    preliminary data; final data; revision; GDP; Macedonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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