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Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time

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  • Valle e Azevedo, João
  • Pereira, Ana

Abstract

We incorporate factors extracted from a large panel of macroeconomic time series in the predictions of two signals related to real economic activity: business cycle fluctuations and the medium- to long-run component of output growth. The latter is simply output growth short of fluctuations with a period below one year. For forecasting purposes, we show that targeting this object rather than the original (noisy) time series can result in gains in forecast accuracy. With conventional projections, high-frequency fluctuations are always fitted, despite being (mostly) unpredictable or idiosyncratic. We illustrate the methodology and provide forecast comparisons for the U.S. and Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:3:p:479-492
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.12.005
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    Cited by:

    1. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
    4. João Veríssimo LISBOA & Mário Gomes AUGUSTO & Juan PIÑEIRO-CHOUSA, 2015. "A Combined Approach To Access Short Term Changes In Economic Activity Of Portugal And Spain," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 24(2), pages 99-110.

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