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ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Lewis, John

Abstract

We study ECB?s interest rate setting in 1999-2010 using a reaction function in which forecasts of future economic growth and inflation enter as regressors. Allowing for a gradual switch between two reaction functions, we detect a shift after Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008 when the pre-crisis reaction function first indicates that interest rates may become constrained by the zero lower bound. Furthermore, the interest rate cuts in late 2008 were more aggressive than forecast by the pre-crisis reaction function. These findings are compatible with the literature on optimal monetary policy in the presence of a zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2011. "ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 8472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8472
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    Cited by:

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    2. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    3. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.
    4. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    5. Maritta Paloviita & Markus Haavio & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Juha Kilponen, 2021. "What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 125-169, June.
    6. Henry W. Chappell & Rob Roy McGregor, 2017. "The lower bound and the causes of monetary policy inertia: evidence from Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1132-1146, March.
    7. Dirk Bleich & Ralf Fendel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Volatility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1669-1680.
    8. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2020. "Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2443, European Central Bank.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_029 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2016. "Monetary policy shocks and Cholesky VARs: an assessment for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 383-414, March.
    11. Tatar, Balint, 2023. "Has the reaction function of the European Central Bank changed over time?," IMFS Working Paper Series 183, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    12. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    13. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    14. Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2018. "Uncertainty and the real effects of monetary policy shocks in the Euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 177-181.
    15. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data," Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
    16. Maddalena Galardo & Cinzia Guerrieri, 2017. "The effects of central bank’s verbal guidance: evidence from the ECB," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1129, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    18. utku altunöz, 2022. "Describing of central banks’ monetary policy in the context to linear and nonlinear taylor rule: the case of Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4641-4662, December.
    19. Linas Jurkšas & Francisco Gomes Pereira, 2023. "Do the projected fiscal deficits play a role in ECB monetary policymaking?," Working Papers REM 2023/0258, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ecb; Reaction functions; Smooth transition; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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