IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2018-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of the Current Expected Credit Loss Standard (CECL) on the Timing and Comparability of Reserves

Author

Abstract

The new forward-looking credit loss provisioning standard, CECL, is intended to promote proactive provisioning as loan loss reserves can be conditioned on expectations of the economic cycle. We study the degree to which one modeling decision?expectations about the path of future house prices ? affects the size and timing of provisions for first-lien residential mortgage portfolios. While we find that provisions are generally less pro-cyclical compared to the current incurred loss standard, CECL may complicate the comparability of provisions across banks and time. Market participants will need to disentangle the degree to which variation in provisions across firms is driven by underlying risk versus differences in modeling assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Chae & Robert F. Sarama & Cindy M. Vojtech & James Z. Wang, 2018. "The Impact of the Current Expected Credit Loss Standard (CECL) on the Timing and Comparability of Reserves," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-20
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2018020pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2018.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Lee J. Cohen & Marcia Millon Cornett & Alan J. Marcus & Hassan Tehranian, 2014. "Bank Earnings Management and Tail Risk during the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 171-197, February.
    3. Epouhe, Onesime & Hall, Arden, 2016. "Payment shock in HELOCs at the end of the draw period," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 131-147.
    4. Suarez, Javier & ,, 2018. "The Procyclicality of Expected Credit Loss Provisions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    6. Jose M. Berrospide & Rochelle M. Edge, 2010. "The effects of bank capital on lending: What do we know, and what does it mean?," CAMA Working Papers 2010-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    9. Carlson, Mark & Shan, Hui & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "Capital ratios and bank lending: A matched bank approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 663-687.
    10. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-141, February.
    11. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    12. Batchelor, Roy A. & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Product differentiation in the economic forecasting industry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 311-316, October.
    13. Cornett, Marcia Millon & McNutt, Jamie John & Strahan, Philip E. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 297-312, August.
    14. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    15. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2014. "Financial accounting in the banking industry: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 339-383.
    16. John M. Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2006. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 243-273, June.
    17. Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart, 2006. "Risk-Based Pricing and the Enhancement of Mortgage Credit Availability among Underserved and Higher Credit-Risk Populations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1431-1460, September.
    18. Benjamin H Cohen & Gerald A. Edwards, Jr., 2017. "The new era of expected credit loss provisioning," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    19. Krüger, Steffen & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "The impact of loan loss provisioning on bank capital requirements," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 114-129.
    20. Jose M. Berrospide & Rochelle M. Edge, 2010. "The Effects of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does It Mean?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 1-50, December.
    21. Jose M. Berrospide & Rochelle M. Edge, 2010. "The effects of bank capital on lending: what do we know, and what does it mean?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Beaver, W & Eger, C & Ryan, S & Wolfson, M, 1989. "Financial-Reporting, Supplemental Disclosures, And Bank Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 157-178.
    23. John M. Clapp & Gerson M. Goldberg & John P. Harding & Michael LaCour‐Little, 2001. "Movers and Shuckers: Interdependent Prepayment Decisions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-450, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatouh, Mahmoud & Giansante, Simone, 2023. "The cyclicality of bank credit losses and capital ratios under expected loss model," Bank of England working papers 1013, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Yi, 2020. "Does bank opacity affect lending?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Michael Jacobs, 2020. "A Holistic Model Validation Framework for Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) Model Development and Implementation," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-36, May.
    3. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2016. "The Impact Of Capital Ratio On Lending Of Eu Banks – The Role Of Bank Specialization And Capitalization," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 43-59, March.
    4. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    5. Michael Jacobs, 2019. "An Analysis of the Impact of Modeling Assumptions in the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) Framework on the Provisioning for Credit Loss," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 65-112.
    6. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Sylwia Roszkowska & Iwona Kowalska, 2014. "The effects of capital on bank lending in large EU banks – the role of procyclicality, income smoothing, regulations and supervision," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 52014, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    7. Hessou, Helyoth & Lai, Van Son, 2018. "Basel III capital buffers and Canadian credit unions lending: Impact of the credit cycle and the business cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 23-39.
    8. Olszak, Małgorzata & Roszkowska, Sylwia & Kowalska, Iwona, 2018. "Macroprudential policy instruments and procyclicality of loan-loss provisions – Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 228-257.
    9. Małgorzata Olszak & Iwona Kowalska & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Filip Świtała, 2020. "Do cyclicality of loan-loss provisions and income smoothing matter for the capital crunch – the case of commercial banks in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 383-436.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    11. Hsieh, Meng-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lin, Yi-Ching, 2022. "New evidence on liquidity creation and bank capital: The roles of liquidity and political risk," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 778-794.
    12. Malgorzata Olszak & Iwona Kowalska & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2016. "Do Macroprudential Policy Instruments Affect The Link Between Lending And Capital Ratio? – Cross-Country Evidence," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22016, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    13. Ben Naceur, S. & Marton, Katherin & Roulet, Caroline, 2018. "Basel III and bank-lending: Evidence from the United States and Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-27.
    14. Roulet, Caroline, 2018. "Basel III: Effects of capital and liquidity regulations on European bank lending," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 26-46.
    15. Kim, Dohan & Sohn, Wook, 2017. "The effect of bank capital on lending: Does liquidity matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-107.
    16. Simona Malovaná & Dominika Ehrenbergerová, 2022. "The effect of higher capital requirements on bank lending: the capital surplus matters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 793-832, August.
    17. Budnik, Katarzyna & Bochmann, Paul, 2017. "Capital and liquidity buffers and the resilience of the banking system in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2120, European Central Bank.
    18. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2012. "Bank Leverage Shocks and the Macroeconomy: a New Look in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-23, CIRANO.
    19. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of bank regulation on bank lending: a review of international literature," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 405-418, December.
    20. Carlson, Mark & Shan, Hui & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "Capital ratios and bank lending: A matched bank approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 663-687.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Accounting rule change; CECL; Mortgage loans; Model risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.