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The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate

Author

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  • Rudan Wang

    (Department of Economics, University of Bath, UK)

  • Bruce Morley

    (Department of Economics, University of Bath, UK)

  • Javier Ordóñez

    (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop models of the Taylor rule and a Taylor rule based exchange rate model incorporating wealth effects, as represented by both asset prices and asset wealth. In addition these wealth effects are further divided into stock market and housing wealth. Using data for Australia, Sweden, UK and the US, the Taylor model is estimated and then used to forecast out-of-sample. The results suggest that the effects of the asset prices and wealth on the Taylor rule are mixed and depend on the country and the form the wealth takes. The outof-sample forecast performance of both the wealth augmented Taylor rule model and Taylor rule exchange rate model are then compared with the conventional Taylor Rule model and a random walk and overall the wealth augmented models outperform the conventional model and random walk in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2015. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2015/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2015/08
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Rudan & Morley, Bruce & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Forecasting the exchange rate using nonlinear Taylor rule based models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 429-442.
    3. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2017. "Wealth Effects and Macroeconomic Dynamics – Evidence from Indian Economy," MPRA Paper 76836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Md Harun Or Rosid & Zhao Xuefeng & Sujan Chandra Paul & Md Reza Sultanuzzaman, 2020. "The macroeconomic determinants of cross-country efficiency in wealth maximization: A joint analysis through the SFA and GMM models," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(6), pages 91-107, October.
    5. Md Harun Or Rosid & Zhao Xuefeng & Sk Alamgir Hossain & Mohammad Raihanul Hasan & Md Reza Sultanuzzaman, 2021. "The Impact of GDP on Cross-Country Efficiency in Wealth Maximization: a Joint Analysis Through the Stochastic Frontier and Generalized Method of Moments," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-6.
    6. Chen, Chuanglian & Yao, Shujie & Ou, Jinghua, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics in a Taylor rule framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-173.

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    Keywords

    exchange rate; wealth effect; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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