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Real‐Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996–2003

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  • ROBERT J. TETLOW
  • BRIAN IRONSIDE

Abstract

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro‐model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. We document the surprisingly large and consequential changes in model properties that occurred during the period from July 1996 to November 2003 and compute optimal Taylor‐type rules for each vintage. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the efficacy of purportedly optimal policy rules should not be taken on faith. We also find that previous findings that simple rules are robust to model uncertainty may be an overly sanguine conclusion.

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  • Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2007. "Real‐Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996–2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1561, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:7:p:1533-1561
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00078.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Robert J. Tetlow, 2015. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: "Robust" Policies Put to the Test," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 113-155, March.
    3. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
    4. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    5. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    6. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2008. "Inflation-Output Tradeoff As Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 6(1), pages 109-134.
    7. Gregory E. Givens, 2017. "Do Data Revisions Matter for DSGE Estimation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1385-1407, September.
    8. Assaf Razin, 2019. "The Struggle Toward Macroeconomic Stability: An Analytical Essay," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 17(1), pages 1-38.
    9. Razin, Assaf & Rosefielde, Steven, 2016. "Israel and the 1990-2015 Global Developments: Riding with the Global Flows and Weathering the Storms," CEPR Discussion Papers 11445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Bernoth, Kerstin & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Andrew Levin, 2007. "Comment on "Monetary Policy in Europe versus the United States: What Explains the Difference?"," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 533-545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    13. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy as an Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," Working Papers 232007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "How Large is the Output Cost of Disinflation?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-079, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2013. "An evaluation of the Federal Reserve estimates of the natural rate of unemployment in real time," Working Papers 13-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Robert J. Tetlow, 2009. "Commentary on The challenges of estimating potential output in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 291-296.

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