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On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve

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  • Maral Kichian

Abstract

This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor. A decrease in the value of the coefficient on the first difference of the output gap also seems to have influenced the observed pattern of inflation. Finally, pass-through of relative price shocks into domestic prices is shown to have been low since 1983.

Suggested Citation

  • Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:01-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    4. Maral Kichian, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Staff Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
    5. Doyle, Matthew & Beaudry, Paul, 2000. "What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10286, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Chantal Dupasquier & Nicholas Ricketts, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada.
    7. Pierre Fortin, 1996. "The Great Canadian Slump," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 761-787, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    3. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2005. "Monetary neglect and the Canadian Phillips Curve," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. David R. Johnson & Sebastian Gerlich, 2002. "How Has Inflation Changed in Canada? A Comparison of 1989­2001 to 1964­1988," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(4), pages 563-579, December.
    5. Akhter Faroque & Ryan Minor, 2009. "Inflation regimes and the stability of the pass-through of wages to consumer prices in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(8), pages 1003-1017.
    6. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rebei, Nooman, 2008. "Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 249-267, July.
    7. Nicholas Rowe & David Tulk, 2003. "A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?," Staff Working Papers 03-31, Bank of Canada.
    8. Philippe Burger, 2014. "Inflation and Market Uncertainty in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 583-602, December.
    9. Maral Kichian, 2012. "Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada," Staff Working Papers 12-33, Bank of Canada.
    10. P. Siklos, D. Waymark, 2006. "Measuring the Impact of Intervention on Exchange Market Pressure," Working Papers eg0048, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
    11. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi, Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.
    12. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2006. "Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 06-2, Bank of Canada.
    13. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2003. "Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods," Staff Working Papers 03-7, Bank of Canada.
    14. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2005. "Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada?," Staff Working Papers 05-29, Bank of Canada.
    15. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.
    16. Pierre Fortin & George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2002. "Inflation and Unemployment in the U.S. and Canada: A Common Framework," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-16, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
    17. Eva Ortega & Nooman Rebei, 2006. "The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 06-12, Bank of Canada.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Johanna Amberger & Ralf Fendel, 2017. "The Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve: Always and Everywhere the Same?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 77-88, May.
    20. Kevin Clinton, 2006. "Core Inflation At The Bank Of Canada: A Critique," Working Paper 1077, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    21. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi, Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? : Evidence from the euro area and USA," Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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