IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/18604.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik
[Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy]

Author

Listed:
  • Erler, Alexander
  • Krizanac, Damir

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the U.S. monetary policy on the Subprime mortgage crisis using a modified taylor rule. The main finding is that during the pre-crisis period the short term rate deviated significantly from the estimated taylor rate. This deviation may have been a cause of the ongoing financial crisis. However, the evidence also suggests that other factors were certainly at play.

Suggested Citation

  • Erler, Alexander & Krizanac, Damir, 2009. "Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik [Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy]," MPRA Paper 18604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18604/1/MPRA_paper_18604.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19045/3/MPRA_paper_19045.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Runkle, 1998. "Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 22(Fall), pages 3-12.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    5. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2006. "Euroland: konjunkturelle Expansion erreicht Höhepunkt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3892, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Deutschland am Rande einer Rezession: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2008," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 14(2. Sonder), pages 1-87.
    7. Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    10. Tao Wu, 2008. "Accounting for the bond-yield conundrum," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(feb).
    11. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
    12. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    14. Jens Richard Clausen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2005. "Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(II), pages 213-246, June.
    15. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2006. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2006," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(08), pages 03-60, April.
    16. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
    17. William Poole, 2007. "Understanding the Fed," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jan), pages 3-14.
    18. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    19. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    20. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2003. "Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area," Working Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    22. Corporate author, 2006. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2006," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(18), pages 225-286.
    23. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    24. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2006. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2006," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 12(2. Sonder), pages 1-67.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tobias Rühl, 2015. "Taylor rules revisited: ECB and Bundesbank in comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 951-967, May.
    2. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    3. Par Osterholm, 2005. "The Taylor rule and real-time data - a critical appraisal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 679-685.
    4. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    5. Carlo Rosa, 2009. "Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 39-66, February.
    6. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Masazumi Hattori & Tomohide Mineyama & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021. "Taylor Rule Yield Curve," Working Papers e156, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    8. Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting," Economics Working Paper Archive 457, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    9. Wolters, Maik H., 2012. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-361.
    10. Alexander Erler & Christian Drescher & Damir Križanac, 2013. "The Fed’s TRAP," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 136-149, January.
    11. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.
    13. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley & Luis F. Cabrera Castellanos, 2004. "Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo: el caso de Nicaragua," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 407-418, octubre-d.
    14. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    15. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    16. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    17. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2012. "An overhaul of Federal Reserve doctrine: Nominal income and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-317.
    19. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    20. Giammarioli, Nicola & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2006. "Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime," Working Paper Series 661, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geldpolitik; Taylor-Regel; Subprime-Krise; Fed;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.