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Keith Sill

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2010. "Expectations and economic fluctuations: an analysis using survey data," Working Papers 10-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Expectation-driven business cycles
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-05-03 19:49:00

Working papers

  1. Dean Croushore & Keith Sill, 2014. "Analyzing data revisions with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Working Papers 14-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    2. Gregory E. Givens, 2017. "Do Data Revisions Matter for DSGE Estimation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1385-1407, September.
    3. Steven P. Cassou & C. Patrick Scott & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy revisited: does considering US real-time data change things?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6203-6219, December.
    4. Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2016. "Data Revisions and DSGE Models," EMF Research Papers 11, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    5. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Data revisions and DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 215-232.
    6. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2020. "The Information Content and Statistical Properties of Diffusion Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 47-99, September.

  2. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2010. "Expectations and economic fluctuations: an analysis using survey data," Working Papers 10-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Kauko, Karlo & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," FinMaP-Working Papers 41, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    2. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2020. "Economic uncertainty in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 113-131.
    3. Girardi, Alessandro, 2014. "Expectations and macroeconomic fluctuations in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 315-318.
    4. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. caterina mendicino & Antonello DÁgostino, 2016. "Expectation-driven cycles: Time-Varying Effects," EcoMod2016 9350, EcoMod.
    7. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2017. "Households' inflation expectations in India: Role of economic policy uncertainty and global financial uncertainty spill-over," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-007, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    8. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2018. "What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks?," Post-Print hal-02334586, HAL.
    9. Mr. Philip Barrett & Jonathan J. Adams, 2022. "Shocks to Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2022/072, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    11. Bruno Albuquerque, 2019. "One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1309-1353, August.
    12. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    13. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming”," AQR Working Papers 201706, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2017.
    15. Antonio M. Conti & Concetta Rondinelli, 2015. "Easier said than done: the divergence between soft and hard data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 258, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucía Rosich, 2019. "Common trends in producers’ expectations, the nonlinear linkage with Uruguayan GDP and its implications in economic growth forecasting," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-28, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    17. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
    18. Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
    19. Dajčman Silvo, 2020. "Economic policy and confidence of economic agents – a causal relationship?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(4), pages 471-484, December.
    20. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aime Nono, 2016. "Using Confidence Data to Forecast the Canadian Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 1606, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    21. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2021. "How Do People Interpret Macroeconomic Shocks? Evidence from U.S. Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 813-843, June.
    22. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    23. Fabio Milani, 2014. "Sentiment and the U.S. Business Cycle," 2014 Meeting Papers 883, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Yingying XU & Zhixin LIU & Jaime ORTIZ, 2018. "Actual and Expected Inflation in the U.S.: A Time-Frequency View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 42-62, December.
    25. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    26. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    27. Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Working Paper Series 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    28. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data," CAMA Working Papers 2012-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    29. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2019. "Can Workers' Increased Pessimism about the Labor Market Conditions Raise Unemployment?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_38, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    30. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    31. Caterina Mendicino, 2014. "House prices and expectations," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 12-15.
    32. Antonello D'Agostino & Caterina Mendicino & Federico Puglisi, 2022. "Expectation‐Driven Cycles and the Changing Dynamics of Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2173-2191, October.
    33. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2012. "A gains from trade perspective on macroeconomic fluctuations," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-002, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    34. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    35. Domenico Depalo, 2024. "Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 97-109, July.
    36. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Working Papers 10, European Stability Mechanism.
    37. Paloma Lopez-Garcia & Filippo di Mauro, 2014. "Assessing competitiveness: initial results from the new compnet micro-based database," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 2-7.
    38. Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot Müller, 2013. "Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4548, CESifo.
    39. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2009. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 09-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    40. Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2021. "Measuring credit crunch in Italy: evidence from a survey-based indicator," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 567-592, April.
    41. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    42. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
    43. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2019. "Measuring the Effects of Expectations Shocks," EMF Research Papers 31, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    44. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2018. "An Indicator of Credit Crunch using Italian Business Surveys," MPRA Paper 88839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," IREA Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2018.
    46. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    47. Shalini Sarin Jain & Shailendra Pratap Jain & Yexin Jessica Li, 2023. "Sustaining Livelihoods or Saving Lives? Economic System Justification in the Time of COVID-19," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 183(1), pages 71-104, February.
    48. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2020. "The expectational effects of news in business cycles: Evidence from forecast data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 184-200.
    49. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
    50. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2017. "Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(2), pages 637-653, October.
    51. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    52. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    53. Antonecchia, Gianluca, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecast accuracy and firms’ credit demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    54. Marco Rubilar-González & Gabriel Pino, 2018. "Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161, June.
    55. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2018. "A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP," Discussion Papers 10/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    56. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
    57. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.
    58. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    59. Bovi, Maurizio, 2019. "A Time-Varying Expectations Formation Mechanism," MPRA Paper 97624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Masayuki Morikawa, 2016. "What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 527-540, December.
    61. Gründler, Daniel, 2023. "Expectations, structural breaks and the recent surge in inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    62. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    63. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2021. "Measuring the effects of expectations shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    64. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2021. "Inflation expectations of households in India: Role of oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and spillover of global financial uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 230-251, April.
    65. Ambrocio, Gene, 2021. "Euro area business confidence and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2021, Bank of Finland.
    66. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "European household and business expectations during COVID-19: Towards a v-shaped recovery in confidence?," BoF Economics Review 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    67. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    68. Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "How do Macroeconomic Shocks affect Expectations? Lessons from Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145747, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    69. Marcelo E. A. Silva & Rafael Vasconcelos & Paulo Vaz, 2022. "Expectations and firm dynamics: Aggregate versus idiosyncratic shocks in emerging economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1370-1380.
    70. Sebastian Schmidt, 2014. "Dealing with a liquidity trap when government debt matters," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 8-11.
    71. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2020. "The Information Content and Statistical Properties of Diffusion Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 47-99, September.
    72. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  3. Maxym Kryshko & Frank Schorfheide & Keith Sill, 2008. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," Working Papers 08-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    2. Andrés González Gómez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009. "Monetary Policy Forecasting In A Dsge Model With Data That Is Uncertain, Unbalanced And About The Future," Borradores de Economia 5480, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    4. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Open Access publications 10197/7351, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    8. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    9. Dr. Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2014. "A compact open economy DSGE model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2014-08, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Martin Fukaè & Vladimír Havlena, 2011. "A Note on the Role of the Natural Condition of Control in the Estimation of DSGE Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(5), pages 453-466, November.
    11. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Open Access publications 10197/7329, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    12. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.
    13. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2019. "Forecasting with instabilities: an application to DSGE models with financial frictions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1234, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Juan Guerra-Salas & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2020. "Online Appendix to "Search Frictions and the Business Cycle in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model"," Online Appendices 18-407, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    17. Dean Croushore & Keith Sill, 2014. "Analyzing data revisions with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Working Papers 14-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Herbst, Edward & Schorfheide, Frank, 2012. "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 152-166.
    19. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140, Elsevier.
    21. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
    22. Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2016. "Data Revisions and DSGE Models," EMF Research Papers 11, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    23. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Data revisions and DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 215-232.
    24. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mampho Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 259, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    25. McDonald, Christopher & Thamotheram, Craig & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2015. "Assessing the Economic Value of Probabilistic Forecasts in the Presence of an Inflation Target," EMF Research Papers 09, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    26. Shaun de Jager & Michael Johnston & Rudi Steinbach, 2015. "A Revised Quarterly Projection Model for South Africa," Working Papers 6839, South African Reserve Bank.
    27. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Banking Intermediation: Evidence from the US," Working Papers 292, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    28. Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2016. "Calvo Wages Vs. Search Frictions: a Horse Race in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 778, Central Bank of Chile.
    29. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipińska, 2014. "Practical Tools For Policy Analysis In Dsge Models With Missing Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1145-1163, November.
    30. Ruey Yau & C. James Hueng, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth for Small Open Economies with a Mixed-Frequency Structural Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 177-198, June.

  4. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2007. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
    2. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    3. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2008. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Rizwan Khalid & Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad & Bushra Naqvi, 2023. "Impact of capital account liberalization on stock market crashes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3700-3726, October.
    5. Ma, Rui & Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2022. "Climate events and return comovement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in micro volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    7. Hasan Engin Duran, 2019. "Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.

  5. Keith Sill, 2006. "Macroeconomic volatility and the equity premium," Working Papers 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Addessi, William & Busato, Francesco, 2009. "Fair wages, labor relations and asset returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 410-430, December.

  6. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2005. "On the stability of employment growth: a postwar view from the U.S. states," Working Papers 04-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.

  7. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2003. "Monetary policy, oil shocks, and TFP: accounting for the decline in U.S. volatility," Working Papers 03-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2013. "The Determinants of Growth Rate Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/170, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices and Liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," MPRA Paper 44049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    4. Nida Çakır Melek & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 1708, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Juan de Dios Tena & César Salazar, 2008. "Explaining inflation and output volatility in Chile: an empirical analysis of forty years," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    6. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert Defina & Keith Sill, 2013. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 521-534, March.
    7. Nathan S. Balke & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2014. "Fuel subsidies, the oil market and the world economy," Working Papers 1407, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "The Role of Permanent and Transitory Components in Business Cycle Volatility Moderation," Departmental Working Papers 200413, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    10. Gaffeo, Edoardo, 2011. "The distribution of sectoral TFP growth rates: International evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 252-255.
    11. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2010. "Input and output inventories in general equilibrium," International Finance Discussion Papers 1004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Irene Brunetti & Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena, 2013. "An Index of Growth Rate Volatility: Methodology and an Application to European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/169, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    13. de Blas Beatriz, 2009. "Can Financial Frictions Help Explain the Performance of the U.S. Fed?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, June.
    14. Qazi Haque & Nicolas Groshenny & Mark Weder, 2019. "Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-11, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    16. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Working Papers (Old Series) 0717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Monetary Policy Trade‐Offs with a Dominant Oil Producer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, February.
    18. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    19. Andres Arias & Gary Hansen & Lee Ohanian, 2007. "Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 43-58, July.
    20. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2007. "Monetary policy responses amid credit and asset booms and busts," MPRA Paper 4491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Irene Brunetti & Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2015. "Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2015/201, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    22. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2012. "How Do Nominal and Real Rigidities Interact? A Tale of the Second Best," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1455-1474, October.
    23. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    24. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos J. García & Esteban Skoknic, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the electricity price: lessons from Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2407-2428, May.
    25. David Fielding, 2008. "Inflation Volatility and Economic Development: Evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers 0807, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
    26. Galo Nuño & Cristiana Belu Manescu, 2015. "Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution," Working Papers 1518, Banco de España.
    27. Alessio Moro, 2012. "The Structural Transformation Between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 402-415, July.
    28. Michael B. Devereux & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2010. "Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 521-550, June.
    29. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    30. Keith Sill, 2006. "Macroeconomic volatility and the equity premium," Working Papers 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    31. Perri, Fabrizio & Fogli, Alessandra, 2006. "The 'Great Moderation' and the US External Imbalance," CEPR Discussion Papers 6010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Dongyeol Lee & Hyunjoon Lim, 2019. "Industrial structure and the probability of crisis: Stability is not resilience," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 212-226, January.
    33. Hayat, Aziz & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2010. "The oil stock fluctuations in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-184, January.
    34. Liu, Qing & Shi, Kang & Wu, Zhouheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2014. "Oil price stabilization and global welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 246-260.
    35. Maher Khaznaji & Louis Phaneuf, 2008. "From the Great Inflation to the Great Moderation: Assessing the Roles of Firm-Specific Labor, Sticky Prices and Labor Supply Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 0812, CIRPEE.
    36. Anton Nakov & Galo Nuño, 2011. "A general equilibrium model of the oil market," Working Papers 1125, Banco de España.
    37. Clemens, Marius & Eydam, Ulrich & Heinemann, Maik, 2023. "Inequality over the business cycle: the role of distributive shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 571-600, April.
    38. Xiao, Zumian & Gao, Juanhe & Wang, Zongshu & Yin, Zhichao & Xiang, Lijin, 2022. "Power shortage and firm productivity: Evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Survey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    39. El Alaoui, Abdelkader O. & Jusoh, Hashim Bin & Yussof, Sheila Ainon & Hanifa, Mohamed Hisham, 2019. "Evaluation of monetary policy: Evidence of the role of money from Malaysia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 119-128.
    40. Liu, Jing-Yu & Lin, Shih-Mo & Xia, Yan & Fan, Ying & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A financial CGE model analysis: Oil price shocks and monetary policy responses in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 534-543.
    41. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2007. "Technology Shocks, Statistical Models, and The Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 3589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Alberto Trejos, 2022. "Trade and the propagation of global shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1663-1680, October.
    43. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Policy risks, technological risks and stock returns: New evidence from the US stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 359-365.
    44. Gary D. Hansen, "undated". "Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile? (with Andres Arias and Lee E. Ohanian)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 416, UCLA Department of Economics.
    45. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

  8. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2003. "Postwar period changes in employment volatility: new evidence from state/industry panel data," Working Papers 03-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert Defina & Keith Sill, 2013. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 521-534, March.
    2. Colm Kearney & Frank Barry, 2005. "MNEs and Industrial Structure in Host Countries:A Mean Variance Analysis of Ireland’s Manufacturing Sector," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp023, IIIS.
    3. Claudia M. Buch & Martin Schlotter, 2008. "Regional Origins of Employment Volatility: Evidence from German States," CESifo Working Paper Series 2296, CESifo.
    4. Bienvenido S. Cortes & Michael Davidsson & Michael McKinnis, 2015. "Growth And Volatility Of Micropolitan Statistical Areas In The U.S," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(4), pages 89-102.
    5. Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. M. Alper Çenesiz & Christian Pierdzioch, 2010. "Capital mobility and labor market volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 391-409, December.
    7. Keith Sill, 2004. "What accounts for the postwar decline in economic volatility?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 23-31.
    8. Ben Salha, Ousama, 2013. "Does economic globalization affect the level and volatility of labor demand by skill? New insights from the Tunisian manufacturing industries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 572-597.

  9. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Ivrendi & Douglas K. Pearce, 2014. "Asset prices and expected monetary policy: evidence from daily data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 985-995, March.
    2. Nautz, Dieter & Netšunajev, Aleksei & Strohsal, Till, 2016. "The anchoring of inflation expectations in the short and in the long run," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
    4. Girardi, Alessandro, 2014. "Expectations and macroeconomic fluctuations in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 315-318.
    5. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. caterina mendicino & Antonello DÁgostino, 2016. "Expectation-driven cycles: Time-Varying Effects," EcoMod2016 9350, EcoMod.
    7. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2017. "Households' inflation expectations in India: Role of economic policy uncertainty and global financial uncertainty spill-over," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-007, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    8. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert Defina & Keith Sill, 2013. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 521-534, March.
    9. Mr. Philip Barrett & Jonathan J. Adams, 2022. "Shocks to Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2022/072, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," Working Papers 2312, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Ueda, Kozo, 2010. "Determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-518, December.
    12. Richhild Moessner & Feng Zhu & Colin Ellis, 2011. "Measuring disagreement in UK consumer and central bank inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 339, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    14. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy (Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar, TAPES), pages 1-27, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation," KOF Working papers 08-201, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. Netésunajev, Aleksei & Winkelmann, Lars, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-019, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    17. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    18. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009.
    19. Yingying XU & Zhixin LIU & Jaime ORTIZ, 2018. "Actual and Expected Inflation in the U.S.: A Time-Frequency View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 42-62, December.
    20. Schmidt, Torsten, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Outputgap," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Mössner, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Central Bank Credibility and the Global Financial Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(II), pages 55-87, June.
    22. David Beckworth & Kenneth P. Moon & J. Holland Toles, 2012. "Can Monetary Policy Influence Long-Term Interest Rates? It Depends," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 1080-1096, October.
    23. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    24. Sohei Kaihatsu & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2016. "Firms' Inflation Expectations and Wage-setting Behaviors," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    25. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    26. Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Working Paper Series 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    27. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    28. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Functional Shocks to Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates and Their Macroeconomic Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10656, CESifo.
    29. Antonello D'Agostino & Caterina Mendicino & Federico Puglisi, 2022. "Expectation‐Driven Cycles and the Changing Dynamics of Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2173-2191, October.
    30. Paweł Baranowski & Wirginia Doryń & Tomasz Łyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2020. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy," NBP Working Papers 326, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    31. Jmaes McNeil, 2020. "Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions," Working Papers daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    32. Scott Davis, 2012. "The Effect of Commodity Price Shocks on Underlying Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Credibility," Working Papers 272012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    33. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    34. Claudia Kwapil & Johann Scharler, 2009. "Expected Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of Bank Lending Rates," Working Papers 149, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    35. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    36. Hanjo Odendaal, 2021. "A machine learning approach to domain specific dictionary generation. An economic time series framework," Working Papers 06/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    37. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2009. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 09-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    38. D'Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2012. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – the times, they are a-changin," MPRA Paper 40604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    40. Barnett, Alina & Groen, Jan J J & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Time-varying inflation expectations and economic fluctuations in the United Kingdom: a structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 392, Bank of England.
    41. Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Sum), pages 289-313.
    42. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Effectiveness of expectations channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    43. Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Uncertainty, unemployment, and inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep17.
    44. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2023. "Evaluating Policy Institutions -150 Years of US Monetary Policy-," Working Papers 1410, Barcelona School of Economics.
    45. Ernest Gnan & Johann Scharler & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2009. "Inflation Expectations – Role and Measurement for Monetary Policy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 41-67.
    46. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    47. Mayer, Eric & Scharler, Johann, 2011. "Noisy information, interest rate shocks and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 568-581.
    48. Bharat Trehan, 2015. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, February.
    49. Yoshihiko Hogen & Ryoichi Okuma, 2018. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Learning-Approach Perspective," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    50. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2011. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2011: Europäische Schuldenkrise belastet deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(20), pages 03-71, October.
    51. Banerjee, A. & Malik, S., 2012. "The changing role of expectations in US monetary policy: A new look using the Livingston Survey," Working papers 376, Banque de France.
    52. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    53. Christopher Herrington & Yash P. Mehra, 2008. "On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Spr), pages 121-146.
    54. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
    55. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    56. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    57. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    58. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?," IMF Working Papers 2015/094, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Alexander William Salter & Thomas L. Hogan, 2019. "Expectations and NGDP Targeting: Supply-Side Problems with Demand-Side Policy," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 34(Fall 2019), pages 89-106.
    60. Bel, Koen & Paap, Richard, 2016. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on US inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1306-1316.
    61. Yoshibumi Makabe & Yoshihiko Norimasa, 2022. "The Term Structure of Inflation at Risk: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    62. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    63. Yingying Xu & Zhi-Xin Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Adelina Dumitrescu Peculea & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1098-1113, March.
    64. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    65. Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "How do Macroeconomic Shocks affect Expectations? Lessons from Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145747, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    66. Giovanni Callegari & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Nicoletta Batini, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/190, International Monetary Fund.
    67. Monica Jain, 2018. "Sluggish Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-39, Bank of Canada.
    68. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Eftimoiu, Raluca, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between core and headline inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-53.
    69. Arturo Ormeno, 2009. "Disciplining expectations: adding survey expectations in learning models," 2009 Meeting Papers 1140, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    70. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  10. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    2. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2015. "Euro area, oil and global shocks: An empirical model-based analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 295-314.
    4. Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2018. "Do Import Tariffs Generate Stagflationary Tendencies?," EconStor Preprints 201013, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    7. Dong Heon Kim, 2010. "What is an oil shock? Panel data evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1007, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    8. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 080923, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    10. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Sep), pages 505-516.
    11. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    12. Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    13. Trimbur, Thomas M., 2010. "Stochastic level shifts and outliers and the dynamics of oil price movements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 162-179, January.
    14. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    15. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 941, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Sylvain Leduc & Kevin Moran & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2020. "Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Working Paper Series 2020-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2003. "Monetary policy, oil shocks, and TFP: accounting for the decline in U.S. volatility," Working Papers 03-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kasparian, Jérôme, 2009. "Contribution of crude oil price to households' budget: The weight of indirect energy use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 111-114, January.
    20. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    21. Delpachitra, Sarath & Hou, Keqiang & Cottrell, Simon, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks in the Canadian economy: A structural investigation on an oil-exporting economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    22. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, September.
    23. Tovonony Razafindrabe & Valérie Mignon & Marc Joëts, 2016. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflects macroeconomic uncertainty?," Post-Print hal-01667080, HAL.
    24. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    25. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Sahay, Vinita S., 2024. "Time-varying relationship between international monetary policy and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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  11. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and metropolitan employment growth," Working Papers 00-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Simon, Curtis J., 2004. "Industrial reallocation across US cities, 1977-1997," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 119-143, July.
    2. Perry Burnett & Harvey Cutler & Stephen Davies, 2012. "Understanding The Unique Impacts Of Economic Growth Variables," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 451-468, August.
    3. Jonathan A. Schwabish, 2005. "Estimating Employment Spillover Effects In New York City with an Application to The Stock Transfer Tax," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(6), pages 663-689, November.
    4. Duranton, Gilles, 2002. "City Size Distributions as a Consequence of the Growth Process," CEPR Discussion Papers 3577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. M. Bellinzas, 2004. "Dinamiche demografiche, agglomerazione e determinanti economiche. Il caso italiano," Working Paper CRENoS 200407, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Gerald A. Carlino, 2003. "A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 6-12.
    7. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H., 2004. "How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/sector data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-315, March.
    8. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Cohen, Jon, 2015. "The power of print: Uncertainty shocks, markets, and the economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-28.
    9. Shu‐hen Chiang, 2012. "The sources of metropolitan unemployment fluctuations in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 775-793, November.
    10. Andrea R. Lamorgese, 2008. "Innovation driven sectoral shocks and aggregate city cycles," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 667, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Bienvenido S. Cortes, 2021. "A Model Of Micropolitan Area Sensitivity To The Business Cycle: Evidence From The Plains Region," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 15(1), pages 61-76.
    12. Alexander Chudik & Janet Koech & Mark Wynne, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in US States and Metropolitan Areas," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 495-517, April.
    13. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
    14. Gilles Duranton, 2007. "Urban Evolutions: The Fast, the Slow, and the Still," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 197-221, March.
    15. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    16. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    17. Coulson, N. Edward & Liu, Crocker H. & Villupuram, Sriram V., 2013. "Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1023-1040.
    18. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

  12. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 2000. "Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles," Working Papers 00-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2015. "Regional effects of federal tax shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 343-360, October.
    4. Natalia Bailey & Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "A Two‐Stage Approach to Spatio‐Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross‐Sectional Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 249-280, January.
    5. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. De-Chih Liu, 2010. "Job creation and destruction by region in Taiwan," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-184, February.
    7. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2006. "Regional business cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the southern periphery of Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 7, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    8. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    9. Carvalho, Vasco M. & Harvey, Andrew C., 2005. "Growth, cycles and convergence in US regional time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 667-686.
    10. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric R. Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9165, CESifo.
    13. Nwankwo, Uche M. & Wolfgang, Bokelmann, 2008. "The Effect of Information and Market Access on Adopters' Income Level," 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland 48101, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Florian Neumeier, 2018. "Do Businessmen Make Good Governors?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2116-2136, October.
    16. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Álvaro Pina, 2011. "Business Cycles, Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 565-592, September.
    17. Hall, Viv B & McDermott, C John, 2011. "An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency," Working Paper Series 18555, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Scott Carson, 2013. "Differences in body mass indices for males imprisoned in the 19th century American South," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, April.
    19. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Thomas Garrett & Gary Wagner & David Wheelock, 2007. "Regional disparities in the spatial correlation of state income growth, 1977–2002," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 41(3), pages 601-618, September.
    21. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    22. David Matesanz Gomez & Benno Torgler & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2013. "Measuring Global Economic Interdependence: A Hierarchical Network Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(12), pages 1632-1648, December.
    23. Breandán Ó'hUallacháin, 2008. "Regional growth transition clubs in the United States," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 33-53, March.
    24. Scott A. Carson, 2017. "Assessing Cumulative Net Nutrition and the Transition from 19th Century Bound to Free-Labor by Ethnic Status," CESifo Working Paper Series 6813, CESifo.
    25. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2012. "Un Indicatore per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia (Nuova versione)," Quaderni di Dipartimento 158, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    26. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2016. "Is Real Per Capita State Personal Income Stationary? New Nonlinear, Asymmetric Panel-Data Evidence," Working papers 2016-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    27. Erin McGuire, 2021. "Entrepreneurial experience and firm exit over the business cycle," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 308-337, May.
    28. Carson, Scott Alan, 2011. "Height of female Americans in the 19th century and the antebellum puzzle," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 157-164, March.
    29. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    30. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 16657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
    32. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Los ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia, 1986-2000," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 3159, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    33. Crosby, Andrew W. & Merriman, David F., 2016. "What Happened to Illinois’ Economy Following the January 2011 Tax Increases? A Midwestern Comparison," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1).
    34. Scott Alan Carson & Scott A. Carson, 2023. "Late 19th and Early 20th Century Urban Net Nutrition by Gender and Race," CESifo Working Paper Series 10703, CESifo.
    35. Gary A. Wagner & Erick M. Elder, 2005. "The Role of Budget Stabilization Funds in Smoothing Government Expenditures over the Business Cycle," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(4), pages 439-465, July.
    36. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2008. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    37. Sen Guo & Haoran Zhao & Huiru Zhao, 2017. "A New Hybrid Wind Power Forecaster Using the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition Method and a Relevance Vector Machine Optimized by the Ant Lion Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    38. Casto Montero Kuscevic, 2014. "Okun’s law and urban spillovers in US unemployment," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(3), pages 719-730, November.
    39. Elizabeth C. Wakerly & Byron G. Scott & James M. Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    40. Hem Basnet & Subhash Sharma, 2015. "Exchange rate movements and policy coordination in Latin America," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 679-696, October.
    41. Wall, Howard J., 2011. "The Employment Cycles of Neighboring Cities," MPRA Paper 29410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H., 2004. "How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/sector data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-315, March.
    43. Magrini Stefano & Gerolimetto Margherita & Duran Hasan Engin, 2013. "Business cycle dynamics across the US states," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 795-822, April.
    44. Hasan Engin Duran, 2014. "Short-Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.S," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 292-332, June.
    45. Kuhlmann, Angela & Decker, Christopher S. & Wohar, Mark E., 2008. "The Composition of Industry and the Duration of State Recessions," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 38(3), pages 1-16.
    46. Vidhi Chhaochharia & George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2020. "Prozac for depressed states? Effect of mood on local economic recessions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 245-274, April.
    47. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, October.
    48. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2012. "Is there an unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 119-141, September.
    49. Blanca Sanchez-Robles & Jose Villaverde, 2001. "Costs of EMU from a regional approach: the Spanish case," ERSA conference papers ersa01p52, European Regional Science Association.
    50. Reingewertz, Yaniv, 2014. "Fiscal Decentralization - a Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 59889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Hasan Engin Duran, 2013. "Convergence Of Regional Economic Cycles In Turkey," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 152-175, November.
    52. Scott A. Carson, 2013. "Black and White Body Mass Index Values in Developing 19th Century Nebraska," CESifo Working Paper Series 4268, CESifo.
    53. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2010. "Un Indicatore di Attività Economica per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia," Quaderni di Dipartimento 130, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    54. Mohamadou Fadiga & Yongsheng Wang, 2009. "A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 13-26, January.
    55. Scott Alan Carson, 2023. "Late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Century Social Feminism and Women’s Suffrage: A Female–Male Net Nutrition Comparison using Differences- in-decompositions," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 35(2), pages 191-215, July.
    56. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association.
    57. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(9), pages 1665-1682, July.
    58. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    59. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    60. Theodore M. Crone, 2004. "A redefinition of economic regions in the U.S," Working Papers 04-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    61. Bryan Perry & Kerk L Phillips & David E. Spencer, 2015. "State-Level Variation in the Real Wage Response to Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, May.
    62. Keith Phillips & Jesus Cañas, 2008. "Regional business cycle integration along the US–Mexico border," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 153-168, March.
    63. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    64. Ana María Cerro & José Pineda, 2002. "Latin American growth cycles. Empirical evidence: 1960 - 2000," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1 Year 20), pages 89-108, June.
    65. Scott Carson, 2011. "Demographic, residential, and socioeconomic effects on the distribution of nineteenth-century African-American stature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 1471-1491, October.
    66. Scott A. Carson, 2017. "Late 19th and Early 20th Century Native and Immigrant Body Mass Index Values," CESifo Working Paper Series 6771, CESifo.
    67. Theodore M. Crone, 2003. "An alternative definition of economic regions in the U.S. based on similarities in state business cycles," Working Papers 03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    68. Scott A. Carson, 2018. "The 19th Centure Net Nutrition Transition from Free to Bound Labor: A Difference-in-Decompositions Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6932, CESifo.
    69. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank.
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    73. Carson, Scott Alan, 2019. "Late 19th, early 20th century US, foreign-born body mass index values in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 26-38.
    74. Onozaki, Tamotsu & Yanagita, Tatsuo & Kaizoji, Taisei & Toyabe, Kazutaka, 2007. "Regional business cycle synchronization through expectations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 102-107.
    75. Esashi, Kunihiko & Onozaki, Tamotsu & Saiki, Yoshitaka & Sato, Yuzuru, 2018. "Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-76.
    76. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross‐Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.
    77. Fredy Vásquez Bedoya & Sergio Iván Restrepo Ochoa & Mauricio Lopera Castaño & María Isabel Restrepo Estrada, 2014. "Los ciclos económicos departamentales en Colombia, 1960-2011," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 16(30), pages 271-295, January-J.
    78. Scott A. Carson, 2021. "International Migration and Net Nutrition in the Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries: Evidence from Prison Records," CESifo Working Paper Series 9411, CESifo.
    79. Scott A. Carson, 2019. "Changing Current Net Nutrition with Weight as a Measure of Net Nutritional Change with the Transition from Bound to Free Labor: A Difference-in-Decompositions Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7502, CESifo.
    80. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    81. Carson, Scott Alan, 2011. "Was the 19th century stature-insolation relationship similar across independent samples? Evidence from soldiers and prisoners," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 199-207, April.

  13. Keith Sill & Jeff Wrase, 2000. "Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Regimes, and Beliefs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1701, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2006. "Learning, Inflation Cycles, and Depression," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 06-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Solving and simulating a simple open-economy model with Markov-switching driving processes and rational learning," Working Papers 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2022. "Financial crisis and slow recovery with Bayesian learning agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(4), pages 578-606, December.
    5. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2004. "Learning, Liquidity Preference, and Business Cycle," ISER Discussion Paper 0601, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    6. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2005. "Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0504016, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  14. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Solving and simulating a simple open-economy model with Markov-switching driving processes and rational learning," Working Papers 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Exchange rates and monetary policy regimes in Canada and the U.S," Working Papers 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  15. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Exchange rates and monetary policy regimes in Canada and the U.S," Working Papers 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Chang, Wen-Ya, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate dynamics: A rationale for the regime-switching process of exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 64-77, March.
    2. Scott Hendry & Wai-Ming Ho & Kevin Moran, 2003. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules in an Open-Economy, Limited-Participation Model," Staff Working Papers 03-38, Bank of Canada.
    3. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Solving and simulating a simple open-economy model with Markov-switching driving processes and rational learning," Working Papers 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2002. "Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 02-30, Bank of Canada.

  16. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period," Working Papers 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Del Negro, 2000. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," RCER Working Papers 522, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    3. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Los ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia, 1986-2000," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 3159, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    4. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745, November.
    5. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(2), pages 229-250, November.

  17. Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional employment dynamics," Working Papers 97-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    3. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Los ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia, 1986-2000," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 3159, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    4. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745, November.
    5. David C Maré & Wai Kin Choy, 2001. "Regional Labour Market Adjustment and the Movements of People: A Review," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

  18. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1996. "Common trends and common cycles in regional per capita incomes," Working Papers 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
    2. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.

  19. Keith Sill, 1994. "Money, output, and the cyclical volatility of the term structure," Working Papers 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Jim, 2002. "Federal funds rate target changes and interest rate volatility," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 159-191.

  20. Keith Sill, 1993. "Macroeconomic risk and Treasury bill pricing: an application of the Factor-Arch model," Working Papers 93-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Elder, John, 2001. "Can the Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate Explain the Time-Varying Risk Premium in Treasury Bill Returns?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 73-97, January.

Articles

  1. Keith Sill, 2014. "Forecast disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 15-24.

    Cited by:

    1. Gillmann, Niels & Kim, Alisa, 2021. "Quantification of Economic Uncertainty: a deep learning approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    3. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.

  2. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2013. "Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1352-1367, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert Defina & Keith Sill, 2013. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 521-534, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Keith Sill, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 16-27.

    Cited by:

    1. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2012. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. Trung, Nguyen Ba, 2019. "The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-110.
    3. Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2014. "The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty," Working Papers 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Guo, Junjie & Li, Youshu & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.
    6. Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2017. "Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-190.
    7. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.

  5. Keith Sill, 2011. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 17-25.

    Cited by:

    1. Roc Armenter, 2011. "Output gaps: uses and limitation," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 1-8.
    2. Keith Kuester, 2011. "The effectiveness of government spending in deep recessions: a New Keynesian perspective," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 14-20.
    3. Michael Dotsey & Charles I. Plosser, 2012. "Designing monetary policy rules in an uncertain economic environment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 1-9.

  6. Schorfheide, Frank & Sill, Keith & Kryshko, Maxym, 2010. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 348-373, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Keith Sill, 2009. "News about the future and economic fluctuations," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 22-33.

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  8. Keith Sill, 2007. "The macroeconomics of oil shocks," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 21-31.

    Cited by:

    1. Josef Pavlata & Petr Strejček & Peter Albrecht & Martin Širůček, 2021. "The Empirical Linkage between Oil Prices and the Stock Returns of Oil Companies," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 186-197.
    2. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed & Kalhoro, Muhammad Ramzan, 2019. "Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 423-432.
    3. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2015. "Investigation of Driving Forces of Energy Consumption in European Union 28 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 422-432.
    4. Mohammad Aladwan & Mohammaad Almaharmeh & Husni Samara, 2023. "Modeling and Mediating the Interaction between Oil Prices and Economic Sectors Advancement: The Case of Middle East," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 51-60, March.
    5. Roc Armenter, 2011. "Output gaps: uses and limitation," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 1-8.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Jiao, Zhilun, 2021. "Relationship between green investments, energy markets, and stock markets in the aftermath of the global financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    8. Ýstemi Berk & Ý. Hakan Yetkiner, 2013. "Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence in the Long Run," Working Papers 1303, Izmir University of Economics.
    9. Noumba, Issidor & Nguea, Stéphane Mbiankeu, 2023. "Assessing the role of globalization for universal electricity access," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 180-195.
    10. Amiri, Hossein & Sayadi, Mohammad & Mamipour, Siab, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Outcomes; Fresh Evidences from a scenario-based NK-DSGE analysis for oil-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Oya Celasun & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Miss Roxana Mihet, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2012/089, International Monetary Fund.
    12. William A. Barnett & Hajar Aghababa, 2016. "Dynamic Structure of the Spot Price of Crude Oil: Does Time Aggregation Matter?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201602, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.
    13. Bettina Lis & Christian Ne ler & Jan Retzmann, 2012. "Oil and Cars: The Impact of Crude Oil Prices on the Stock Returns of Automotive Companies," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 190-200.
    14. Berna Aydogan & Istemi Berk, 2015. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidences from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 54-68.
    15. Heidari, Hassan & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar, 2016. "بررسی اثرگذاری واردات کالاهای مصرفی، واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای در روند انتقال نوسانات قیمت نفت خام به بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران [Effects of the Import of Consumption, Intermediate and Capital Goods on Tr," MPRA Paper 79236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    17. Ediger, Volkan S. & Berk, Istemi, 2011. "Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2132-2142, April.
    18. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh, Jr & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
    19. Al-mulali, Usama & Che Sab, Normee, 2009. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Real Exchange Rate of the Dirham: a Case Study of the United Arab Emirates," MPRA Paper 23493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Berk, Istemi & Aydogan, Berna, 2012. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," EWI Working Papers 2012-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    21. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    22. Berk, Istemi & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "Energy prices and economic growth in the long run: Theory and evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 228-235.
    23. Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.

  9. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 595-614, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Keith Sill, 2005. "Do budget deficits cause inflation?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 26-33.

    Cited by:

    1. Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2015. "Does intelligence help fighting inflation: an empirical test?," MPRA Paper 66882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "The impact of debt service on economic growth:Empirical evidence from Zambia," Working Papers 25652, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    3. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2020. "The impact of public debt service on economic growth:Empirical evidence from Zambia," Working Papers 26642, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

  12. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Keith Sill, 2004. "What accounts for the postwar decline in economic volatility?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 23-31.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.

  14. Keith Sill, 2002. "Widening the wage gap: the skill premium and technology," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 25-32.

    Cited by:

    1. Roc Armenter, 2015. "A bit of a miracle no more: the decline of the labor share," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-9.
    2. Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Is Technology Factor-Neutral? Evidence from the US Manufacturing Sector," NIPE Working Papers 26/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Riska Dwi Wulandari & Susilo & Dias Satria, 2018. "Income Inequality between Formal-Informal Employees Based on Education Group," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 64, pages 25-42, Juni.

  15. Keith Sill, 2001. "The gains from international risk-sharing," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 23-32.

    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Australia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/330, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Benoît Mercereau, 2006. "Financial Integration in Asia: Estimating the Risk-Sharing Gains for Australia and Other Nations," IMF Working Papers 2006/267, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kim, H. Youn, 2014. "International financial integration and risk sharing among countries: A production-based approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 16-35.

  16. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H. & Sill, Keith, 2001. "Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 396-417, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Keith Sill, 1999. "Forecasts, indicators and monetary policy," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-14.

    Cited by:

    1. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q III), pages 5-42.
    2. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

  19. Keith Sill, 1998. "An Empirical Investigation of Money Demand: Evidence from a Cash-In-Advance Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 125-147, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Sunny Kumar, 2016. "Currency demand stability in the presence of seasonality and endogenous financial innovation: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 71552, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  20. Keith Sill, 1997. "The economic benefits and risks of derivative securities," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 15-26.

    Cited by:

    1. Guay, Wayne R., 1999. "The impact of derivatives on firm risk: An empirical examination of new derivative users1," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 319-351, January.
    2. Md. Edrich Molla, 2018. "A Review on the Potentiality of Derivative Market and Economic Stability of Bangladesh," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 2(4), pages 632-639.

  21. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.

    Cited by:

    1. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(46), pages 1-12.
    2. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    3. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2005. "The elusive costs and the immaterial gains of fiscal contraints," Economics Working Papers 928, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Álvaro Pina, 2011. "Business Cycles, Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 565-592, September.
    5. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2012. "Business Cycles Association in a Small Monetary Union: The Case of Switzerland," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 9-30, March.
    6. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Los ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia, 1986-2000," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 3159, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    7. Jamel Gatfaoui & Eric Girardin, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Post-Print hal-01456105, HAL.
    8. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745, November.
    9. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2007. "Co‐Movement Of Australian State Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 360-374, December.
    10. Theodore M. Crone, 1999. "Using state indexes to define economic regions in the U.S," Working Papers 99-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association.
    12. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    14. Jahyeong Koo & Mark A. Wynne, 1997. "Business cycles under monetary union: EU and US business cycles compared," Working Papers 9707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society.

  22. Keith Sill, 1996. "The cyclical volatility of interest rates," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 15-29.

    Cited by:

    1. Fendel, Ralf & Neumann, Christian, 2021. "Tail risk in the European sovereign bond market during the financial crises: Detecting the influence of the European Central Bank," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Xian, Lu & He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Gold price analysis based on ensemble empirical model decomposition and independent component analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 454(C), pages 11-23.
    3. Hugo Oliveros C., 1998. "Modelos De Duración:Una Aplicación En El Caso De La Inflacíón Y La Tasa De Interés," Borradores de Economia 3241, Banco de la Republica.

  23. Keith Sill, 1994. "Managing the public debt," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-13.

    Cited by:

    1. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  24. Keith Sill, 1993. "Predicting stock-market volatility," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 15-28.

    Cited by:

    1. Lang, Larry H. P. & Lee, Yi Tsung, 1999. "Performance of various transaction frequencies under call markets: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-39, February.

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