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Inflationary Effect of Oil-Price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis

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  • Wu, Libo
  • Li, Jing
  • Zhang, ZhongXiang

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the U.S., we separate the impact of price control from those of other factors leading to China’s price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the U.S., with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in the short term. However, in order to strengthen the economy’s resilience to oil-price shocks, the paper suggests a gradual relaxing of price control in China.

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  • Wu, Libo & Li, Jing & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2011. "Inflationary Effect of Oil-Price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis," Sustainable Development Papers 102507, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemdp:102507
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.102507
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model," Economics Study Area Working Papers 121, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    3. Shi, Xunpeng & Sun, Sizhong, 2017. "Energy price, regulatory price distortion and economic growth: A case study of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 261-271.
    4. Ju, Yiyi & Fujikawa, Kiyoshi, 2019. "Modeling the cost transmission mechanism of the emission trading scheme in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 172-182.
    5. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    6. Hao Xiao & Shuquan Li & Julien Chevallier & Bangzhu Zhu, 2017. "Electricity-Savings Pressure and Electricity-Savings Potential among China?s Inter-Provincial Manufacturing Sectors," Working Papers 2017-006, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    9. Yuwan Duan & Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan, 2020. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in China: A Cost-Push Input-Output Price Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 513-528, July.
    10. Többen, Johannes, 2017. "Regional Net Impacts and Social Distribution Effects of Promoting Renewable Energies in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 195-208.
    11. Damira Keček, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Energy Prices on Inflation in Croatia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-14, February.
    12. Yang, Dong-Xiao & Wu, Bi-Bo & Tong, Jing-Yang, 2021. "Dynamics and causality of oil price shocks on commodities: Quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Michał Przybyliński & Artur Gorzałczyński, 2022. "Applying the input–output price model to identify inflation processes," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Ma, Ning & Li, Huajiao & Zhang, Jinwei & Han, Xiaodan & Feng, Sida & Arif, Asma, 2021. "The short-term price effects and transmission mechanism of CO2 cost pass-through in China: A partial transmission model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Huang, Xuan & Liu, Xueyong, 2022. "The time-frequency evolution of multidimensional relations between global oil prices and China's general price level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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