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Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain

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  • Jason Lennard
  • Finn Meinecke
  • Solomos Solomou

Abstract

What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high‐frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high‐frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ehsrev:v:76:y:2023:i:3:p:844-870
    DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13215
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    2. Jason Lennard, 2023. "Sticky wages and the Great Depression: evidence from the United Kingdom," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 27(2), pages 196-222.
    3. Lennard, Jason & Paker, Meredith, 2023. "Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 18702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    6. Ronicle, David, 2022. "Turning in the widening gyre: monetary and fiscal policy in interwar Britain," Bank of England working papers 968, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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