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How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks

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  • Michael Plante

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Abstract

This paper examines optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model where the relative price of oil is affected by exogenous supply shocks and a productivity-driven demand shock. When wages are flexible, stabilizing core infation is optimal and the nominal rate rises (falls) in response to a demand (supply) shock. When both prices and wages are sticky, core inflation falls (rises) in response to the demand (supply) shock. Stabilizing CPI inflation generates small welfare losses only if the demand shock is the main driver of oil prices. Based on a VAR estimated using post-1986 data for the U.S., both shocks have had minimal impacts on core inflation. The federal funds rate rises in response to the demand shock but falls in response to the supply shock, consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model for a policy that stabilizes core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Plante, 2009. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2009013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chan, Jenny & Diz, Sebastian & Kanngiesser, Derrick, 2024. "Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a Gas-TANK," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    3. Nida Çakır Melek & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida," Research Working Paper RWP 17-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Irina Kozlovtceva & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Stas Tatarintsev, 2019. "Financial Stability Implications of Policy Mix in a Small Open Commodity-Exporting Economy," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps42, Bank of Russia.
    5. Andrea Ferrero & Martin Seneca, 2019. "Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource‐Rich Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 953-976, June.
    6. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    7. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    8. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
    9. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Y. Charles Li & Hong Yang, 2016. "A mathematical model of demand-supply dynamics with collectability and saturation factors," Papers 1606.06720, arXiv.org.
    11. FrIrina Kozlovtceva & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Stas Tatarintsev, 2020. "A case for leaning against the wind in a commodity-exporting economy," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 164, pages 86-114.
    12. Akan, Taner, 2023. "Can renewable energy mitigate the impacts of inflation and policy interest on climate change?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 255-289.
    13. Yang, Yang & Zhang, Jiqiang & Chen, Sanpan, 2023. "Information effects of monetary policy announcements on oil price," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    14. Becker, Robert A. & Borissov, Kirill & Dubey, Ram Sewak, 2015. "Ramsey equilibrium with liberal borrowing," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 296-304.
    15. Saadaoui, Zied & BOUFATEH, Talel & JIAO, Zhilun, 2023. "On the transmission of oil supply and demand shocks to CO2 emissions in the US by considering uncertainty: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    16. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
    17. Roudari, Soheil & Mensi, Walid & Kharusi, Sami Al & Ahmadian-Yazdi, Farzaneh, 2023. "Impacts of oil shocks on stock markets in Norway and Japan: Does monetary policy's effectiveness matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 343-358.
    18. Lance J Bachmeier & Benjamin D Keen, 2023. "Modeling the Asymmetric Effects of an Oil Price Shock," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 1-47, August.
    19. Atalla, Tarek & Blazquez, Jorge & Hunt, Lester C. & Manzano, Baltasar, 2017. "Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 536-546.
    20. Shangle, Ai & Solaymani, Saeed, 2020. "Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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