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The Impact of Oil Prices on the Real Exchange Rate of the Dirham: a Case Study of the United Arab Emirates

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  • Al-mulali, Usama
  • Che Sab, Normee

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of oil shocks on the real exchange rate of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) dirham. Time series data were used for the period 1977 to 2007 covering four important oil shocks. Five variables have been used in this study, with the real exchange rate of the dirham as the dependent variable and the gross domestic product per capita, oil price, trade balance, and foreign direct investment inflows as the independent variables. In this study we used the Johansen-Juselius cointegration procedure, and conducted the Granger causality tests based on the VECM. Through this research, we found that a fixed exchange rate to the U.S. dollar is not an appropriate exchange rate regime for the UAE. This is because when the price of oil increases, and with a fixed exchange rate regime, this would lead to rapid growth in GDP and liquidity in the UAE economy. This in turn causes domestic prices to increase, which results in high levels of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-mulali, Usama & Che Sab, Normee, 2009. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Real Exchange Rate of the Dirham: a Case Study of the United Arab Emirates," MPRA Paper 23493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23493
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    Cited by:

    1. Usama Almulali & Che Normee Binti Che Sab, 2013. "Exploring the impact of oil revenues on OPEC members' macroeconomy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(4), pages 416-428, December.
    2. Tayfur Bayat & Saban Nazlioglu & Selim Kayhan, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Transition Economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 267-285, June.
    3. Amin Z. A. & El-Sakka M. I. T., 2016. "Determining Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the Oil-Based GCC Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(7), pages 374-389, July.
    4. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Selected CEE Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil Prices; real exchange rate; UAE; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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