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On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Deren Unalmis
  • Ibrahim Unalmis
  • Ms. Filiz D Unsal

Abstract

Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2009. "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2009/285, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    5. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage," Working Papers 1230, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Arnoud Stevens, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy response to endogenous oil price fluctuations," Working Paper Research 277, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 505-532, December.
    8. Bei Zhang & Xiaoqing Ai & Xingming Fang & Shi Chen, 2022. "The Transmission Mechanisms and Impacts of Oil Price Fluctuations: Evidence from DSGE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Clausen Volker & Wohltmann Hans-Werner, 2013. "Oil Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(2), pages 159-187, April.
    10. Joseph D. Alba & Wai-Mun Chia & Zheng Su, 2013. "Oil shocks and monetary policy rules in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4971-4984, December.

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