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Monetary Policy Trade‐Offs with a Dominant Oil Producer

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  • ANTON NAKOV
  • ANDREA PESCATORI

Abstract

We model oil production decisions from optimizing principles rather than assuming exogenous oil price shocks and show that the presence of a dominant oil producer leads to sizable static and dynamic distortions of the production process. Under our calibration, the static distortion costs the U.S. around 1.6% of GDP per year. In addition, the dynamic distortion, reflected in inefficient fluctuations of the oil price markup, generates a trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and aligning output with its efficient level. Our model is a step away from discussing the effects of exogenous oil price variations and toward analyzing the implications of the underlying shocks that cause oil prices to change in the first place.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Monetary Policy Trade‐Offs with a Dominant Oil Producer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:1:p:1-32
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00276.x
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