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Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine

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  • Domenico Depalo

    (Banca d’Italia, Economics and Statistics Department)

Abstract

Using the Consumer Expectations Survey of the ECB, I estimate how individual expectations on core economic outcomes changed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain right after the beginning of the Ukraine–Russia war. I find that individuals expected lower economic growth and higher inflation. The effect of the war was larger in the countries with a higher energy-imports dependency. Hence, the expectation formation process might have changed.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Depalo, 2024. "Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 97-109, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:67:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02550-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02550-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; War; Ukraine; Russia; Consumer expectation survey (CES);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • J69 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Other
    • P42 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Productive Enterprises; Factor and Product Markets; Prices
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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