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Shocks to Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Adams

    (University of Florida)

  • Philip Barrett

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up actual inflation. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured forecasts to diverge from the rational expectation. Surprisingly, using data for the United States we find that a positive inflation expectation shock is contractionary and deflationary: output, inflation, and interest rates all fall. These results are inconsistent with the standard New Keynesian model, which predicts inflation and interest rate hikes. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Adams & Philip Barrett, 2024. "Shocks to Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:22-216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101234
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    Cited by:

    1. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    3. Rodion V. Balakin & Yuliya A. Steshenko, 2024. "Review of Approaches to Assessing the Impact of New Challenges on the Economy and Certain Aspects of Taxation," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 68-85, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Sentiments; Expectations; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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