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The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period

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  • Gerald A. Carlino
  • Keith Sill

Abstract

This paper examines the cyclical dynamics of per capita personal income for the major U.S. regions during the 1953:3-95:2 period. The analysis reveals considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, the authors find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response of four regions (New England, Southeast, Southwest, and Far West), which the authors call the core region, and the nation. The authors also find a great deal of comovement between the Mideast and Plains regions, but these regions are only weakly correlated with national movements. The cyclical response of the Great Lakes region is markedly different from that of the other regions and the nation. Possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored, such as the share of a region's income accounted for by manufacturing, defense spending as a proportion of a region's income, oil price shocks, and the stance of monetary policy. Somewhat surprisingly, the authors find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period," Working Papers 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98-11
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," RCER Working Papers 522, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    2. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745, November.
    3. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March.
    5. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(2), pages 229-250, November.
    6. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Los ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia, 1986-2000," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 25, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    Economic history; Income;

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