IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedpbr/y2003iq1p6-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment

Author

Listed:
  • Gerald A. Carlino

Abstract

Jerry Carlino points out that the fortunes of local economies usually depend on a confluence of national, sectoral, and local shocks. That, in turn, raises the question: Does one type of shock systematically buffet local economies more than another? The answer has important implications for both academic researchers and policymakers. In \\"A Confluence of Events? Explaining Fluctuations in Local Employment,\\" Carlino examines the evidence to see which type of shock most likely explains fluctuations in local employment

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald A. Carlino, 2003. "A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 6-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2003:i:q1:p:6-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/business-review/2003/q1/brq103jc.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H. & Sill, Keith, 2001. "Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 396-417, November.
    2. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 198-236, January.
    3. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
    4. Coulson, N. Edward, 1999. "Sectoral sources of metropolitan growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 723-743, November.
    5. Tamim Bayoumi & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment: Some New Empirical Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 36-58, March.
    6. Clark, Todd E, 1998. "Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 202-229, January.
    7. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Argia M. Sbordone, 1997. "Sources of New York employment fluctuations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Feb), pages 21-35.
    8. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    9. Eswar Prasad & Alun Thomas, 1998. "A disaggregated analysis of employment growth fluctuations in Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 274-287, September.
    10. Theodore M. Crone, 1992. "A slow recovery in the Third District: evidence from new time-series model," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12.
    11. Hooker, Mark A & Knetter, Michael M, 1997. "The Effects of Military Spending on Economic Activity: Evidence from State Procurement Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 400-421, August.
    12. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    13. Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zietz, Joachim A. & Penn, David A., 2008. "An Unobserved Components Forecasting Model of Non-Farm Employment for the Nashville MSA," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-10.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H. & Sill, Keith, 2001. "Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 396-417, November.
    2. Alexander Chudik & Janet Koech & Mark Wynne, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in US States and Metropolitan Areas," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 495-517, April.
    3. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H., 2004. "How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/sector data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-315, March.
    4. Shu‐hen Chiang, 2012. "The sources of metropolitan unemployment fluctuations in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 775-793, November.
    5. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2013. "Discordant city employment cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 367-384.
    6. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    7. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Geoffrey Hewings, 2008. "On some conundra in regional science," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(2), pages 251-265, June.
    9. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    10. Coulson, N. Edward, 1999. "Sectoral sources of metropolitan growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 723-743, November.
    11. Grace Lee, 2011. "Aggregate shocks decomposition for eight East Asian countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 215-232.
    12. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period," Working Papers 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 728-740, January.
    14. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    15. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2005. "Reduced-Rank Identification of Structural Shocks in VARs," Macroeconomics 0512011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 728-740.
    17. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S., 2003. "The waxing and waning of regional economies: the chicken-egg question of jobs versus people," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 76-97, January.
    18. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society.
    19. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Campolieti, Michele & Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary, 2014. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada: The role of industry, provincial, national and external factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 257-275.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment (Economic theory);

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2003:i:q1:p:6-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Beth Paul (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbphus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.