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Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Kent

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Kylie Smith

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • James Holloway

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

The decline in output volatility in a number of countries over the past few decades has been well-documented, though less agreement has been reached about the causes of this decline. In this paper, we use a panel of data from 20 OECD countries to see if there is a role for various indicators of structural reform in explaining the general decline in output volatility. We suggest that reforms in product and labour markets can reduce volatility of aggregate output by encouraging productive resources to shift more readily in response to differential shocks across firms and sectors. In contrast to other studies, we include direct measures of product market regulations and monetary policy regimes as indicators of structural reform. We find that less product market regulation and stricter monetary policy regimes have played a role in reducing output volatility. Our estimates are reasonably robust to a number of alternative specifications, including those that attempt to control for a possible trend in common (unexplained) innovations to output volatility such as a possible decline in the magnitude of global shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2005-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    3. Jordi Galí & Thijs van Rens, 2021. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labour Productivity [Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 302-326.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working Papers 0801, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    5. Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila & Rougier, Eric, 2016. "The effect of macroeconomic instability on FDI flows: A gravity estimation of the impact of regional integration in the case of Euro-Mediterranean agreements," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-91.
    6. Girijasankar Mallik & Anis Chowdhury, 2011. "Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 414-429, September.
    7. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Exchange Rate Appreciation, Capital Flows and Excess Liquidity: Adjustment and Effectiveness of Policy Responses," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp87.
    8. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    9. Cristina Betancour & José De Gregorio & Juan Pablo Medina, 2008. "The "great moderation" and the monetary transmission mechanism in Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 159-178, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2008. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 34-49, March.
    11. Dan Andrews & Daniel Rees, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Terms of Trade Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Regional Employment Volatility In Turkey: Causes And Consequences," Working Papers 2015/06, Turkish Economic Association.
    13. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. José De Gregorio, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Risk of Inflation: A View From Developing Countries," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Adam Cagliarini & Christopher Kent & Glenn Stevens, 2010. "Fifty Years of Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Michael Robson (ed.),Reserve Bank of Australia 50th Anniversary Symposium, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Albulescu Claudiu Tiberiu, 2007. "The Impact of the New Financial Products on the Volatility of the Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 2(1(2)_Fall).
    17. Vincent GERONIMI & Natalia ZUGRAVU-SOILITA & Christine LE GARGASSON & Jessy TSANG KING SANG, 2015. "Le Tourisme Comme Facteur De Vulnérabilités ? Le Rôle Des Patrimoines Insulaires," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 189-214.
    18. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    19. Leonidas Spiliopoulos, 2005. "What determines macroeconomic volatility? A cross-section and panel data study," Macroeconomics 0505026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Natalia Zugravu-Soilita & Vincent Geronimi & Christine Le Gargasson & Jessy Tsang King Sang, 2017. "Towards a less vulnerable and more sustainable development: heritage tourism in island economies," Working Papers 2017.11, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    21. Mr. Craig Beaumont & Li Cui, 2007. "Conquering Fear of Floating: Australia's Successful Adaptation to a Flexible Exchange Rate," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2007/002, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2008. "Current Account Deficits: Tha Australian Debate," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 13, pages 491-535, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Yılmaz, Oğuzhan, 2024. "Financial development and declining growth volatility: Explanations and an empirical study with the latest FD index," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 457-470.
    24. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    25. Andy Mullineux & Victor Murinde & Rudra Sensarma, 2011. "Corporate financing and macroeconomic volatility in the European union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 79-92, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; volatility; panel regression; structural reform; monetary policy; OECD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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