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Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve

Author

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  • Alexander Doser
  • Ricardo Nunes
  • Nikhil Rao
  • Viacheslav Sheremirov

Abstract

This paper examines the presence of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. We allow for a flexible form of nonlinearity and estimate a threshold regression model with the number and location of thresholds determined directly from the data. Over the estimation period starting in the late 1960s, we document that the linear model cannot be rejected if we properly control for inflation expectations. More precisely, not controlling for consumer expectations may lead the econometrician to overestimate the degree of nonlinearity. Our results hold with aggregate data, regional data, and controlling for cost‐push shocks directly or using instrumental variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:38:y:2023:i:4:p:453-471
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2963
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    3. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Sitikantha Pattanaik & Silu Muduli & Soumyajit Ray, 2020. "Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 244-263, September.
    5. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    6. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Lazopoulos, Ioannis & Gabriel, Vasco, 2019. "Policy mandates and institutional architecture," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 122-134.
    8. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    11. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    12. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
    13. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Resolving the missing deflation puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 15-34.
    14. Luengo-Prado, María José & Rao, Nikhil & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2018. "Sectoral inflation and the Phillips curve: What has changed since the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 63-68.
    15. Anat Bracha & Jenny Tang, 2019. "Inflation Thresholds and Inattention," Working Papers 19-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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