IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/wp22e04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Term Structure of Inflation at Risk: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yoshibumi Makabe

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yoshihiko Norimasa

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper uses panel quantile regression to analyze the factors affecting inflation risks defined as the tail of the predictive inflation distribution. We construct a panel going back to the "Great Inflation" period (from the late 1960s) and include variables that capture not only downside risks, which many recent studies have focused on, but also upside risks to examine the developments in both upside and downside risks to inflation in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Our analysis shows that unit labor costs and real government spending have a significant effect on the upward risks to inflation. We also find that the effect of import prices on inflation risks is short-lived, while the effect of real government spending and unit labor costs persists over the medium term. These results also show that the term structure of the effect on inflation risks differs depending on the factor involved.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshibumi Makabe & Yoshihiko Norimasa, 2022. "The Term Structure of Inflation at Risk: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp22e04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2022/data/wp22e04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    3. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    5. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    6. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    7. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
    8. Ehrmann, Michael, 2021. "Point targets, tolerance bands or target ranges? Inflation target types and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Beck-Friis, Peder & Willems, Tim, 2017. "Dissecting fiscal multipliers under the fiscal theory of the price level," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-83.
    10. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    11. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2011. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 211-227, February.
    12. Alexander Kupfer, 2018. "Estimating Inflation Risk Premia Using Inflation‐Linked Bonds: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 1326-1354, December.
    13. Yuichiro Ito & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Koji Nakamura & Takashi Nakazawa, 2014. "New Financial Activity Indexes: Early Warning System for Financial Imbalances in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 14-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    14. Gill Hammond, 2012. "State of the art of inflation targeting," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 4, number 29, April.
    15. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    17. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    18. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2010. "Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 181-200, February.
    19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    21. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    22. Ludger Linnemann & Roland Winkler, 2016. "Estimating nonlinear effects of fiscal policy using quantile regression methods," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 1120-1145.
    23. Yash P. Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    24. Galina Besstremyannaya & Sergei Golovan, 2019. "Reconsideration of a simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(3), pages 292-308.
    25. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    26. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
    27. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    28. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Juan Contreras & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2020. "Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 883, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Elena Bobeica & Matteo Ciccarelli & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2019. "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 848, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    31. Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
    32. Ekaterina V. Peneva & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2017. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1777-1802, December.
    33. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    34. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
    35. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    36. Otmar Issing, 2005. "Why did the Great Inflation not happen in Germany?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Mar), pages 329-336.
    37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to “Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    38. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    39. Korobilis, Dimitris & Landau, Bettina & Musso, Alberto & Phella, Anthoulla, 2021. "The time-varying evolution of inflation risks," Working Paper Series 2600, European Central Bank.
    40. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2022. "Cross-Sectional Error Dependence in Panel Quantile Regressions," Working Papers w202213, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. López-Salido, David & Loria, Francesca, 2024. "Inflation at risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    3. Zheng, Tingguo & Gong, Lu & Ye, Shiqi, 2023. "Global energy market connectedness and inflation at risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    3. Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.
    4. López-Salido, David & Loria, Francesca, 2024. "Inflation at risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    5. Anthony Garratt & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Commodity prices and inflation risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 392-414, March.
    6. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    10. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Aaron D. Smallwood, 2022. "Inference in Misspecified GARCH‐M Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 334-355, April.
    12. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    13. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 1961-2000, December.
    14. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    15. Banerjee, Ryan & Contreras, Juan & Mehrotra, Aaron & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2024. "Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal Verbrugge, 2023. "Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 559-576, March.
    17. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    18. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    19. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Inflation Globally," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 8, pages 269-316, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation risk; panel quantile regression; term structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp22e04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.