IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v21y2020ics1703494919300921.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Nusair, Salah A.

Abstract

This paper employs the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2013) to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the unemployment rates of Canada and the U.S. Asymmetries are introduced via positive and negative partial sum decompositions of oil price. Cointegration tests confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between real input prices (oil price and interest rate) and the unemployment rates. The linear ARDL model suggests that, although oil price changes have no or minor short-run effect on the unemployment rates, they have a significant and positive long-run effect in all the cases. The NARDL model gives a different picture for the effect of oil price changes on the unemployment rates. While only falling oil prices have a significant short-run effect on the unemployment rates, rising and falling oil prices have a significant and positive long-run effect in all the cases. The results suggest significant evidence of asymmetries both in the short-run and long-run with falling oil prices having a larger impact than rising prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Nusair, Salah A., 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the U.S," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:21:y:2020:i:c:s1703494919300921
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494919300921
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00153?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    2. Dogrul, H. Günsel & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1523-1528, November.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2004. "Estimator Choice and Fisher's Paradox: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 25-52.
    6. Lorusso, Marco & Pieroni, Luca, 2018. "Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 223-236.
    7. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    8. Pietro Garibaldi, 1997. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Job Creation and Destruction," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, December.
    9. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    12. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    13. Bastianin, Andrea & Conti, Francesca & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-169.
    14. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Ordóñez, Javier, 2018. "Oil prices and unemployment in the UK before and after the crisis: A Bayesian VAR approach. A note," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 200-207.
    15. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    16. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes & Timothy Sablik, 2017. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue March.
    17. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    18. Nusair, Salah A., 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 256-267.
    19. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2018. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns of the GCC countries: empirical evidence from quantile regression analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 339-372, November.
    20. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
    21. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    22. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    23. Wang, Yu Shan, 2013. "Oil price effects on personal consumption expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 198-204.
    24. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    25. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2016. "The impact of supply shocks on unemployment in Spain," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 107-112.
    26. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    27. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2002. "Unemployment and input prices: a fractional cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 347-351.
    28. Nikitas Pittis, 1999. "Efficient Estimation Of Cointegrating Vectors and Testing for Causality in Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35, February.
    29. Keane, Michael P & Prasad, Eswar S, 1996. "The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 389-400, August.
    30. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    31. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    32. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    33. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2015. "The effects of oil price shocks on job reallocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 95-113.
    34. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    35. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    36. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2018. "Oil price shocks and unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 164-173.
    37. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    38. Bohi, Douglas R., 1991. "On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-162, June.
    39. Paul Segal, 2011. "Oil price shocks and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(1), pages 169-185, Spring.
    40. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2007. "Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5535-5540, November.
    41. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Time-varying effects of oil supply and demand shocks on China's macro-economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 424-437.
    42. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    43. Nasseh, Ali Reza & Elyasiani, Elyas, 1984. "Energy price shocks in the 1970s : Impact on industrialized economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 231-244, October.
    44. Ordóñez, Javier & Monfort, Mercedes & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2019. "Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 625-634.
    45. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Brown, Leanora & McFarlane, Adian & Campbell, Kaycea & Das, Anupam, 2020. "Remittances and CO2 emissions in Jamaica: An asymmetric modified environmental kuznets curve," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    3. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    4. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2021. "Asymmetric oil price and Asian economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu & Abiodun O. Folawewo, 2020. "Investigating the relationship between changes in oil prices and unemployment rate in Nigeria: linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Ben Youssef, Slim, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric relationships between renewable energy, oil imports, arms exports, military spending, and economic growth in China," MPRA Paper 111413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chelghoum, Amirouche & Boumimez, Fayçal & Alsamara, Mouyad, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand for money in Algeria," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Johnson A. Oliyide, 2021. "Business confidence as a strong tracker of future growth: is it driven by economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks in the OECD countries?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Baek, Jungho, 2024. "Oil shocks and unemployment dynamics in Alaska: The source of shocks matters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Benjamin Musiita & Frederick Nsambu Kijjambu & Asaph Kaburura Katarangi, 2024. "Factor Input Prices and Unemployment in Uganda," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(1), pages 52-66.
    11. Alogoskoufis, George & Malliaris, A.G. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2023. "The scope and methodology of economic and financial asymmetries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    12. Mokni, Khaled & Ben-Salha, Ousama, 2020. "Asymmetric causality in quantiles analysis of the oil-food ‏ ‏nexus since the 1960s," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Deheri, Abdhut & Ramachandran, M., 2023. "Does Indian economy asymmetrically respond to oil price shocks?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Zhang, Xi-Xi & Liu, Lu, 2020. "The time-varying causal relationship between oil price and unemployment: Evidence from the U.S. and China (EGY 118745)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    15. Tan, Yan & Uprasen, Utai, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on income inequality in ASEAN countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    2. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2021. "Asymmetric oil price and Asian economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Nusair, Salah A., 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 256-267.
    5. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    6. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2018. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns of the GCC countries: empirical evidence from quantile regression analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 339-372, November.
    7. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    10. Abdulmohsen Alfalih, Abdullah & Bel Hadj, Tarek, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on employment in an oil producing country: Do human capital, institutions and oil rents matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Tan, Yan & Uprasen, Utai, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on income inequality in ASEAN countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain & Qaisar Abbas & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Asian economies: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1319-1350, October.
    13. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    15. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 577-583.
    16. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Barkat, Karim, 2020. "Short- and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Akinlo A. Enisan, 2020. "Asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on unemployment: Evidence from Nigeria," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 12(1), pages 63-78, June.
    18. Ordóñez, Javier & Monfort, Mercedes & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2019. "Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 625-634.
    19. Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Gadea, M. Dolores, 2011. "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1070-1081.
    20. Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Yushu Li & Ghazi Shukur, 2018. "The Causal Nexus between Oil Prices, Interest Rates, and Unemployment in Norway Using Wavelet Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Unemployment; Cointegration; Asymmetric ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:21:y:2020:i:c:s1703494919300921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.