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Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Magrini

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Margherita Gerolimetto

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Hasan Engin Duran

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

Abstract

The analysis of synchronization among regional or national business cycles has recently been attracting a growing interest within the economic literature. Far less attention has instead been devoted to a closely related issue: given a certain level of synchronization, some economies might be systematically ahead of others along the swings of the business cycle. In other words, there could be a lead/lag structure in which some economies systematically lead or lag behind others. In the present paper we aim at providing a thorough analysis of the lead/lag structure among a system of regional economies. This task is achieved in two steps. First, we show that leading (or lagging behind) is a feature that does not occur at random across the economies. Second, we investigate the economic drivers that could explain such a behavior. To do so, we employ data for 48 conterminous US states between 1979 and 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2011_06
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    Cited by:

    1. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional business cycles; lead/lag structure; synchronization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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