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Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries

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  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Yoshino, Naoyuki

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

We examine the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000–2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of 8 Asian economies: Bangladesh, the People’s Republic of China, Indonesia, India, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. The findings from variance decomposition reveal that shares of oil prices in agricultural food price volatilities are the largest. In the second period 4.81%, and in the 20th period 62.49%, of food price variance is explained by oil price movements. We offer new policy insight. Since We also found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, especially in advanced countries, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies.

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  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries," ADBI Working Papers 829, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Duc Hong Vo & Tan Ngoc Vu & Anh The Vo & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Modeling the Relationship between Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, April.
    3. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Rosa Ferrentino & Luca Vota, 2020. "A Mathematical Model for the Study of the Effects of the Economic Cycle on the Real GDP Growth Rate through the Expectations-Adjusted Phillips Curve," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 222-234.
    5. Furuoka, Fumitaka & Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Ling, Pui Kiew & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh & Islam, M. Nazmul, 2023. "Transmission of risks between energy and agricultural commodities: Frequency time-varying VAR, asymmetry and portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Zhengliang Yang & Xiaoxue Du & Liang Lu & Hernan Tejeda, 2022. "Price and Volatility Transmissions among Natural Gas, Fertilizer, and Corn Markets: A Revisit," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "How oil prices affect East and Southeast Asian economies: Evidence from financial markets and implications for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 628-638.
    8. Jin Zhang & Zhenqing Lin & Jinkai Li, 2024. "Analyzing the risk spillovers of international crude oil on China's corn and biofuel ethanol markets: A transition toward green economy and environmental sustainability," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(3), pages 1216-1234, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; food price; agricultural commodities prices; Panel-VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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