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Robert Rich

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG," Staff Reports 672, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The relationship between forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty: Evidence from a survey data—arch model (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1992) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Keshav Dogra & Sebastian Heise & Edward S. Knotek & Brent Meyer & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2023. "Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Wildauer & Karsten Kohler & Adam Aboobaker & Alexander Guschanski, 2023. "Energy Price Shocks, Conflict Inflation, and Income Distribution in a Three-sector Model," Working Papers PKWP2309, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).

  2. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Keshav Dogra & Sebastian Heise & Edward S. Knotek & Brent Meyer & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2023. "How Do Firms Adjust Prices in a High Inflation Environment?," Liberty Street Economics 20230602, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.

  3. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek II & Kristian O. Myrseth & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2023. "Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 31822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Diego Marino Fages, 2024. "Motivated Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Discussion Papers 2024-08, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.

  4. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Edward S. Knotek & James Mitchell & Mathieu Pedemonte & Taylor Shiroff, 2024. "The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers' Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance," Working Papers 24-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion & Geoff Kenny, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions," NBER Working Papers 33014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  5. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2022. "Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 22-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2023. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," Working Paper Series 2023-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    4. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2024. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

  6. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2022. "Surveys of Professionals," Working Papers 22-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Constructing fan charts from the ragged edge of SPF forecasts," Working Papers 2429, Banco de España.

  7. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 17356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Lukas Buchheim & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle, 2024. "Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees," CESifo Working Paper Series 11329, CESifo.
    3. Guerreiro, Joao & Hazell, Jonathon & Lian, Chen & Patterson, Christina, 2024. "Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs," IZA Discussion Papers 17339, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.
    5. Joao Guerreiro & Jonathon Hazell & Chen Lian & Christina Patterson, 2024. "Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs," Discussion Papers 2440, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

  8. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments," Working Papers 21-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

  9. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Dovern, Jonas & Glas, Alexander & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: a compositional data approach," Working Paper Series 2791, European Central Bank.
    2. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Working Papers 688, DNB.
    4. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "Firm level expectations and macroeconomic conditions underpinnings and disagreement," Working Papers 11058, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Hong, T., 2021. "Revisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2174, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    7. Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2021. "“Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic”," AQR Working Papers 202104, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2021.
    8. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    10. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    11. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    12. Yongchen Zhao, 2022. "Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 810-828, July.
    13. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," BIS Working Papers 809, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
    17. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    18. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.
    19. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    20. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2023. "Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    21. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    22. Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Barrero, José María & Davis, Steven J. & Altig, David & Bloom, Nicholas, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 15229, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
      • Brent H. Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 29958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    23. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
    24. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.

  10. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.

  11. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Disinflation and reliability of underlying inflation measures," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps44, Bank of Russia.
    3. Min Jeong Kim & Dohyoung Kwon, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy: an economic regime approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 136-147, March.
    4. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    5. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BIS Working Papers 465, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    7. Eliana R. González-Molano & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Edgar Caicedo-García & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Jose Vicente Romero & Anderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Nueva Clasificación del BANREP de la Canasta del IPC y revisión de las medidas de Inflación Básica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2014. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Icelandic Core Inflation," Economics wp67, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    9. The People's Bank of China, 2016. "An underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 117-121, Bank for International Settlements.

  12. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Falck & Mathias Hoffmann & Patrick Hürtgen, 2018. "Disagreement and Monetary Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 655, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    4. Zohar, Osnat, 2024. "Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-04141344, HAL.
    6. Kapuściński, Mariusz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2018. "Measuring bank funding costs in the analysis of interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-300.
    7. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    8. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
    9. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Schick, Manuel, 2024. "Real-time Nowcasting Growth-at-Risk using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0750, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
    13. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
    14. Tomasz Łyziak & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times. Recent evidence from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBP Working Papers 261, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    15. Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2023. "Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements," Working Paper Series 2770, European Central Bank.
    16. Jihye Jeon, 2022. "Learning and investment under demand uncertainty in container shipping," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(1), pages 226-259, March.
    17. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
    18. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    19. Tunc, Ahmet & Kocoglu, Mustafa & Aslan, Alper, 2022. "Time-varying characteristics of the simultaneous interactions between economic uncertainty, international oil prices and GDP: A novel approach for Germany," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
    21. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    22. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    23. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
    24. Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2022. "Survey-derived proxies for uncertainty: the case of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 16(2), pages 27-56, December.
    25. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    26. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    27. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
    28. Sami Oinonen & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 139-163, November.
    29. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited," MPRA Paper 119478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Tao Wang, 2024. "How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 24-5, Bank of Canada.
    31. Fang, Libing & Qian, Yichuo & Chen, Ying & Yu, Honghai, 2018. "How does stock market volatility react to NVIX? Evidence from developed countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 490-499.
    32. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    33. Robert L. Czudaj, 2021. "Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Information Rigidity in the Crude Oil Market: Evidence from Survey Data," Chemnitz Economic Papers 050, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Sep 2021.
    34. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2020. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Working Papers 427, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    35. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2014. "Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014, Bank of Finland.
    36. O. Grishchenko & S. Mouabbi & J.-P. Renne, 2017. "The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty," Working papers 622, Banque de France.
    37. Angus Moore, 2016. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    38. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    39. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Rounding bias in forecast uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(4), pages 277-291.
    40. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    41. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    42. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    43. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    44. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2018. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 85191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Oinonen, Sami & Viren, Matti, 2021. "Effects of Monetary Policy Decisions on Professional Forecasters' Expectations and Expectation Uncertainty," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 245-280.
    46. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    47. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
    48. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland.
    49. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy and Cost-Push Factors," MPRA Paper 119029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2018. "Effects of monetary policy decisions on professional forecasters' expectations and expectations uncertainty," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2018, Bank of Finland.
    51. Fabian Krüger, 2017. "Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 235-246, August.
    52. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.
    53. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
    54. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    55. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    56. Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2017. "Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-190.
    57. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    58. Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    59. Huang, Rong & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2022. "Are macroeconomic forecasters optimists or pessimists? A reassessment of survey based forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 706-724.
    60. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    61. Svetlana Makarova, 2018. "European Central Bank Footprints On Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 637-652, January.
    62. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.

  13. M. Henry Linder & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2012. "Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment," Liberty Street Economics 20121119, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.

  14. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269751, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
    4. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 014, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
    5. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    6. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    7. Manzanares, Andrés & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
    8. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    9. Patricio A. Jaramillo & Juan Carlos Piantini, 2013. "Multimodality and mixture distributions: an application to a Survey of Economic Expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1801-1817, May.
    10. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Peng, Amy & Yang, Ling, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 478-481, June.
    12. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  15. Robert W. Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Peter Hooper & Bruce C. Kasman & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Understanding the Evolving the Evolving Inflation Process," Working Papers 2007-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2011. "Has Core Inflation Been Doing a Good Job in Brazil?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(2), June.
    3. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    4. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Trimmed Indexes as Measures Of Trend Imacec," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 414, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ).
    6. N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester, 2006. "Core inflation as a predictor of total inflation," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Apr.
    7. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Middendorf, Torge & Schäfer, Günter & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur im Zwischentief," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 59(1), pages 31-82.
    10. John C. Williams, 2011. "Maintaining price stability in a global economy," Speech 87, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Dowd, Kevin & Cotter, John & Loh, Lixia, 2011. "U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 513-536, September.
    12. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011. "Forecasting and tracking real-time data revisions in inflation persistence," MPRA Paper 34439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    14. Junhee Lee & Joonhyuk Song, 2011. "Oil and Macroeconomy: The Case of Korea," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 263-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 13383, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Feb 2009.
    16. García, Juan Angel & Poon, Aubrey, 2019. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks," Working Paper Series 2338, European Central Bank.
    17. Baqaee, David, 2010. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: The case of New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 241-255, December.
    18. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & François Geerolf & Sandrine Levasseur, 2022. "Heterogeneity of inflation in the euro area: more complicated than it seems," Post-Print hal-03970416, HAL.
    19. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2010. "Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation," MPRA Paper 22387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2010.
    20. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 17856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    22. John C. Williams, 2012. "Bank regulation in the post-crisis world," Speech 104, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. Christian Bordes & Samuel Maveyraud, 2008. "The Friedman's and Mishkin's Hypotheses (Re)Considered," Post-Print hal-00308571, HAL.
    24. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    25. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    26. Heather L. R. Tierney, 2012. "Examining the ability of core inflation to capture the overall trend of total inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 493-514, February.
    27. Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "Price co-movements, commonalities and responsiveness to monetary policy: empirical analysis under Indian conditions," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 25(2), pages 77-97, December.
    28. Stephen G Cecchetti & Richhild Moessner, 2008. "Commodity prices and inflation dynamics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    29. Junhee Lee & Joonhyuk Song, 2009. "Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Tara M. Sinclair & Dennis W. Jensen & Michael D. Bradley, 2009. "How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2009-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    31. Heather L. R. Tierney, 2019. "Forecasting with the Nonparametric Exclusion-from-Core Inflation Persistence Model Using Real-Time Data," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 39-63, February.
    32. Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Sum), pages 289-313.
    33. Priyanka Sahu, 2021. "A Study on the Dynamic Behaviour of Headline Versus Core Inflation: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1574-1593, December.
    34. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2008. "Core Inflation - Why the Federal Reserve Got it Wrong," Working Papers 2008:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    35. Oğuz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen, 2009. "Design and evaluation of core inflation measures for Turkey," IFC Working Papers 3, Bank for International Settlements.
    36. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Frank Leung & Kevin Chow & Simon Chan, 2010. "Measures of trend inflation in Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 177-200, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Abdul Aleem & Amine Lahiani, 2011. "Estimation and evaluation of core inflation measures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3619-3629.
    39. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
    40. Julie K. Smith, 2012. "PCE inflation and core inflation," Working Papers 1203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    41. Castañeda, Juan Carlos & Chang, Rodrigo, 2023. "Evaluating core inflation measures: A statistical inference approach," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(4).
    42. Scott T. Fullwiler & Geoffrey Allen, 2007. "Can the Fed Target Inflation? Toward an Institutionalist Approach," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 485-494, June.
    43. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Eftimoiu, Raluca, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between core and headline inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-53.

  16. Jason Bram & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "New York and New Jersey poised for modest job growth in 2005," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    2. Alan Clayton-Matthews & Theodore M. Crone, 2004. "Consistent economic indexes for the 50 states," Working Papers 04-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  17. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Staff Reports 159, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Chadha J. S. & Samiri, I., 2024. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2437, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Kathryn Holston & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2016. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants," Working Paper Series 2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 207-298.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Papers (Old Series) 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Fernald, John, 2006. "Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements," CEPR Discussion Papers 5631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2015. "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers 723, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology‐Hours Debate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1071-1097, September.
    10. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Andrea Caggese & Ander Pérez-Orive, 2018. "Capital misallocation and secular stagnation," Economics Working Papers 1637, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2019.
    12. van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Current trends in the analysis of Canadian productivity growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 5-25, January.
    13. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis," Discussion Papers 12/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Dave, Chetan & Dressler, Scott & Malik, Samreen, 2022. "A Cautionary Tale of Fat Tails," Working Papers 2022-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    15. John G. Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," NBER Working Papers 23543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    18. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2018. "Testing the Number of Regimes in Markov Regime Switching Models," Papers 1801.06862, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    19. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    20. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2003. "Lessons from the US growth resurgence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 453-470, July.
    21. James B. Bullard, 2018. "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 60-65, April.
    22. Glocker, Christian & Wegmueller, Philipp, 2018. "International evidence of time-variation in trend labor productivity growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 115-119.
    23. Ellen R. McGrattan & Eduard C. Prescott, 2006. "Why Did U.S. Market Hours Boom in the 1990s?," 2006 Meeting Papers 192, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    25. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2009. "Unmeasured investment and the puzzling U.S. boom in the 1990s," Staff Report 369, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    26. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and 'global imbalances'," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    27. Gabriel Rodriguez-Rondon & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2024. "MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models," Papers 2411.08188, arXiv.org.
    28. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Getting Income Shares Right: A Panel Data Investigation for OECD Countries," Working Papers 0701, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    29. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
    30. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    31. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 397, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    32. Luigi Bocola & Nils M. Gornemann, 2013. "Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations," Working Papers 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    33. Alexander Cline & James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2025. "Is High Productivity Growth Returning?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(01), pages 1-12, January.
    34. Ayres, JoaÞo & Navarro, Gaston & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Teles, Pedro, 2023. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12701, Inter-American Development Bank.
    35. Shaw, Charles, 2018. "Regime-Switching And Levy Jump Dynamics In Option-Adjusted Spreads," MPRA Paper 94154, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2019.
    36. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    37. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
    38. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Paper Series 2022-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    39. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2021. "The Impact of COVID on Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2021-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    40. Janice C. dup Eberly & John dup Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    41. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    42. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2009. "Getting Income Shares Right," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(3), pages 254-266, August.
    43. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Simon van Norden, 2010. "Lessons From the Latest Data on U.S. Productivity," CAMA Working Papers 2010-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    44. Rochelle Edge & Thomas Laubach, 2004. "Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 123, Society for Computational Economics.
    45. Cantore, C. & Ferroni, F. & Le n-Ledesma, M A., 2011. "Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship," Working papers 351, Banque de France.
    46. Rachael McCririck & Daniel Rees, 2016. "The Slowdown in US Productivity Growth: Breaks and Beliefs," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    47. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    48. Barraez, Daniel & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2009. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation: Looking at the future during uncertain times," MPRA Paper 106550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    50. Paul Welfens, 2010. "Transatlantic banking crisis: analysis, rating, policy issues," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 3-48, May.
    51. Arabinda Basistha, 2009. "Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206.
    52. Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Stochastic Growth In The United States And Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, February.
    53. Timothy Cogley, "undated". "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    54. Krause, Michael & Hoffmann, Mathias & Laubach, Thomas, 2013. "The Expectations-Driven U.S. Current Account," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79854, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    55. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    56. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    57. Caggese, Andrea & Pérez-Orive, Ander, 2022. "How stimulative are low real interest rates for intangible capital?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    58. Deniz Nebioğlu, 2022. "Great Recession and news shocks: evidence based on an estimated DSGE model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1649-1685, April.
    59. Jyoti Rahman & David Stephan & Gene Tunny, 2009. "Estimating trends in Australia's productivity," Treasury Working Papers 2009-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Feb 2009.
    60. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    61. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    62. Biolsi, Christopher, 2021. "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    63. Juan F. Jimeno & Esther Moral & Lorena Saiz, 2006. "Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union," Working Papers 0625, Banco de España.

  18. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2003. "Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence," Staff Reports 161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
    2. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
    3. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    4. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
    5. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Veldkamp, Laura, 2006. "Learning asymmetries in real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 753-772, May.
    6. Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modelling multi‐period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219, December.
    11. Timmermann Allan & Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2006-07, Banco de México.
    12. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 365-396, March.
    14. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
    15. Andersson, Magnus & Hansen, Lars Jul & Sebestyén, Szabolcs, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank.
    16. Awartani, Basel & Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Virk, Nader, 2024. "How do the gold intra-day returns and volatility react to monetary policy shocks?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

  19. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Uncertainty and labor contract durations," Staff Reports 106, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Christofides, L. & Peng, C., 2004. "Contract Duration and Indexation in a Period of Real and Nominal Uncertainty," Working Papers 2004-3, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    3. Genda, Yuji & Heckel, Markus & Kambayashi, Ryo, 2019. "Employees who do not know their labour contract term and the implications for working conditions: Evidence from Japanese and Spanish microdata," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 95-104.
    4. Hsuan-Yu Lin & Chih-Hai Yang, 2016. "Uncertainty, specific investment, and contract duration: evidence from the MLB player market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1009-1028, May.
    5. Leena Rudanko & Per Krusell, 2015. "Unions in a Frictional Labor Market," Discussion Papers 1531, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Danziger, Leif & Neuman, Shoshana, 2003. "Delays in Renewal of Labor Contracts: Theory and Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 709, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 825-842.
    10. Louis N. Christofides & Amy Peng, 2007. "Real Wage Chronologies," Working Papers 0707, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    11. Matthias Paustian, 2005. "The role of contracting schemes for the welfare costs of nominal rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 196, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Danziger, Leif, 2006. "Extension of Labor Contracts and Optimal Backpay," IZA Discussion Papers 2366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Fougère, Denis & Gautier, Erwan & Roux, Sébastien, 2016. "The Impact of the National Minimum Wage on Industry-Level Wage Bargaining in France," CEPR Discussion Papers 11234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2011. "Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995," Staff Reports 521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Jonung, Lars & Fregert, Klas, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Is a Success, So Far: 100 Years of Evidence from Swedish Wage Contracts," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-25.
    16. Corrado Benassi & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2003. "Indexation Rules, Risk Aversion and Imperfect Information," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 330-340, June.
    17. Klas Fregert & Lars Jonung, 2007. "Policy rule evaluation by contract-makers: 100 years of wage contract length in Sweden," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 270, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    19. Yoder, Jonathan & Hossain, Ishrat & Epplin, Francis & Doye, Damona, 2008. "Contract duration and the division of labor in agricultural land leases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 714-733, March.
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    21. D. Fougere & E. Gautier & S. Roux, 2017. "Understanding Wage Floor Setting in Industry-Level Agreements: Evidence from France," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2017-01, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    22. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
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    25. Aobdia, Daniel & Cheng, Lin, 2018. "Unionization, product market competition, and strategic disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 331-357.
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  20. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Robert W. Rich, 1999. "Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio," Staff Reports 71, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    2. Roman Hušek & Tomáš Formánek, 2005. "Estimation of the Czech Republic Sacrifice Ratio for the Transition Period," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(1), pages 51-63.
    3. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "Une estimation de la cible implicite d’inflation dans la zone euro," TSE Working Papers 09-137, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Robert-Paul Berben & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Javier Vallés, 2005. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Working Papers 0502, Banco de España.
    6. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    7. Jean-Jacques Durand & Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Julien Licheron, 2008. "Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone: what can be learned about implementing a single monetary policy?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 601-621.
    8. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
    9. Ravindra H. Dholakia & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2017. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 27-44, March.
    10. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    11. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 289-323, March.
    12. Dholakia, Ravindra H. & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2015. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    13. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2010. "Disinflation in a DSGE Perspective: Sacrifice Ratio or Welfare Gain Ratio?," Quaderni di Dipartimento 111, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    14. Coffinet, J., 2006. "Ratios de sacrifice et rigidités sur le marché du travail," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 151, pages 59-73.
    15. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2013. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-100.
    16. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Inflation gifts restrictions for structural VARs: evidence from the US," Working Papers 16/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    17. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Sacrifice Ratio in a Medium-Scale New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 457-467, March.
    18. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    20. Chrigui Zouhair & Boujelbene Younes, 2009. "The Opportunities for Adopting Inflation Targeting in Tunisia: a Cointegration Study and Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(3), pages 671-692, October.
    21. Giuseppe Diana & Mose Sidiropoulos, 2004. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 385-402, October.
    22. Jérôme Coffinet & Céline Poilly, 2009. "Une évaluation structurelle du ratio de sacrifice dans la zone euro," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(2), pages 273-299.
    23. Marcel Fratzscher & Christoph Grosse Steffen & Malte Rieth, 2018. "Inflation Targeting as a Shock Absorber," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1721, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    24. N. Johnson, Leroy, 2022. "Financial Frictions And Monetary Policy Shocks In Sierra Leone: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 9(2), pages 78-96, June.
    25. Aginta, Harry, 2023. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    26. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Frictions in a Small Open-Economy Model for Uganda," Working Papers 201710, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    27. Jarociński, Marek, 2008. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Working Paper Series 970, European Central Bank.
    28. Leef H. Dierks, 2023. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio:The Case of Southeast Asia," Working Papers wp50, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    29. Lendvai, Julia, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank.
    30. Victor Pontines, 2020. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: Empirical evidence from Korea," CAMA Working Papers 2020-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. Dinabandhu Sethi & Wing-Keung Wong & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Can a Disinflationary Policy Have a Differential Impact on Sectoral Output? A Look at Sacrifice Ratios in OECD and Non-OECD Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 138-170, May.
    32. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2020. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 115798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. N. Kundan Kishor & Levis A. Kochin, 2007. "The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 56-70, January.
    35. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Fernando Pérez de Gracía Hidalgo, "undated". "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un análisis empírico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA.
    36. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    37. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    38. Ashima Goyal & Gagan Goel, 2021. "Correlated Shocks, Hysteresis, and the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2929-2945, August.
    39. Christopher G. Gibbs & Mariano Kulish, 2015. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," Discussion Papers 2015-22, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    40. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, February.
    41. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Thresholds for employment and unemployment: A spatial analysis of German regional labour markets, 1992–2000," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(4), pages 523-542, November.
    42. Eduardo Loría & Raúl Tirado, 2022. "Sacrifice rate and labour precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 41(87), pages 427-456, December.
    43. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    44. Eric Schaling & Kgotso Morema, 2022. "Optimalinterestrategapsforflexibleinflationtargeting," Working Papers 11037, South African Reserve Bank.
    45. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    46. Roy H. Webb, 1999. "Two approaches to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 23-40.
    47. Ursel Baumann & David Lodge & Mirela S. Miescu, 2024. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 76-90, January.
    48. Mamoudou, Toure & Jamel, Trabelsi & Frédéric, Dufourt, 2009. "Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 993-999, September.
    49. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2010. "Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio? Disinflation in a DSGE monetary model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 736, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    50. Zobia BHATTI & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Cost of Low Inflation in Case of Pakistan," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 257-268, June.
    51. Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher & Naser Yenus Nuru, 2021. "Structural estimates of the South African sacrifice ratio," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-12, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    52. Juncal Cunnado & Fernando PErez De Gracia, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: Some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337.
    53. Peng, Amy & Yang, Ling, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 478-481, June.
    54. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.

  21. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Claire Sensoli & Francisco Serranito & Thierry Latreille & Olivier Passet & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Hervé Péléraux & Henri Sterdyniak & Paola Veroni, 2000. "Tous ensemble ? Perspectives 2000-2001 pour l'économie mondiale," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01218109, HAL.
    3. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. David A. Brauer, 1997. "Do rising labor costs trigger higher inflation?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Sep).
    5. Todd E. Clark, 1998. "Progress toward price stability : a 1997 inflation report," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q I), pages 5-21.
    6. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    7. Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE & Henri Sterdyniak & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Thierry Latreille & Catherine Mathieu & Olivier Passet & Christine Rifflart & Claire Sensoli & Paola Ve, 2000. "Tous ensemble ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(1), pages 7-113.
    8. Richard Senner & Didier Sornette, 2019. "The Holy Grail of Crypto Currencies: Ready to Replace Fiat Money?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 966-1000, October.
    9. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Arslan, Mesut Murat, 2007. "Dynamics of Sticky Information and Sticky Price Models in a New Keynesian DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 5269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Dipesh Karki & Hari Gopal Risal, 2019. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation: Evidence from Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 31(1), pages 21-46, April.
    14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    15. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2000. "Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Jul).
    16. Mr. Angel J. Ubide & Mr. Kevin Ross, 2001. "Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2001/203, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan, 2000. "The behaviour of inflation and unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 200016, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    18. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2001. "Structural change in U.S. wage determination," Staff Reports 117, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Jordi Galí & J David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips curve for Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 174-203, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. C. Alan Garner, 1998. "A closer look at the employment cost index," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q III), pages 63-78.
    22. Edward N. Gamber & Juann Hung, 1999. "The Impact of Globalization on the U.S. Business Cycle: Technical Paper 1999-6," Working Papers 13342, Congressional Budget Office.
    23. Hyclak, Thomas & Ohn, Jonathan, 2001. "Wage inflation and the post-1991 duration puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 97-104, October.
    24. Higo, Masahiro & Nakada, Sachiko-Kuroda, 1999. "What Determines the Relation between the Output Gap and Inflation ? An International Comparison of Inflation Expectations and Staggered Wage Adjustment," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 129-155, December.
    25. Ewald Nowotny, 1999. "The Role of Macroeconomic Policy in Overcoming Slow Economic Growth - International Comparisons and Policy Perspectives," Working Papers geewp01, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.
    26. Carl R. Gwin & David D. Van Hoose, 2008. "Disaggregate Evidence On Price Stickiness And Implications For Macro Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 561-575, October.
    27. C. Alan Garner, 2000. "An inflation report for 1999," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 85(Q I), pages 5-20.
    28. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, 2010. "Key Elements of Global Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    29. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Carlson, John B. & Craig, Ben & Schwarz, Jeffrey C., 2000. "Structural uncertainty and breakpoint tests: an application to equilibrium velocity1," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 101-115.
    31. Paloviita, Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
    32. Inoue, Tetsuya, 1998. "Impact of Information Technology and Implications for Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 16(2), pages 29-60, December.
    33. Maritta Paloviita, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Macroeconomics 0405015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

Articles

  1. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(11), pages 1-7, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.

  3. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(03), pages 1-9, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  4. Robert W. Rich & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(05), pages 1-7, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    2. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures," Working Papers 22-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 30 May 2023.

  5. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(09), pages 1-7, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Bulligan & Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 624, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    3. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(11), pages 1-7, July.
    4. Hüpper, Florian & Kempa, Bernd, 2023. "Inflation targeting and inflation communication of the Federal Reserve: Words and deeds," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

  7. Michael Morris & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2020. "How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(19), pages 1-9, July.

    Cited by:

    1. García Pérez, J. Ignacio & Jimeno, Juan F., 2020. "Worker flows and wage dynamics: estimating wage growth without composition effects," UC3M Working papers. Economics 31567, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

  8. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.

    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. Matteo Luciani, 2020. "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin & Matteo Luciani & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2021. "Inferential Theory for Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2021-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Gabriel Rodriguez-Rondon, 2024. "Underlying Core Inflation with Multiple Regimes," Papers 2411.12845, arXiv.org.
    5. Schoenle, Raphael & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2019. "Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Oğuz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen, 2009. "Design and evaluation of core inflation measures for Turkey," IFC Working Papers 3, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.

  9. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. M. Henry Linder & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2013. "The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Aug).

    Cited by:

    1. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2020. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage-Price Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 27663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Baoping Shang, 2016. "What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/124, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    6. Patrick C. Higgins, 2021. "The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2021(11), September.
    7. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
    8. Joe Seydl & Malcolm Spittler, 2016. "Did globalization flatten the Phillips curve? U.S. consumer price inflation at the sectoral level," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 387-410, July.
    9. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Saeed Zaman, 2019. "Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    11. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," NBER Working Papers 25987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Viacheslav Kramkov, 2023. "Does CPI disaggregation improve inflation forecast accuracy?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps112, Bank of Russia.
    15. A. Moutaabbid, 2024. "Les determinants de la dynamique des salaires en France : approches macro et sectorielles par la courbe de Phillips," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-20, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 393-428, December.
    17. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    18. Danica Unevska-Andonova, 2018. "Inflation Decomposition Model: Application to Macedonian inflation," Working Papers 2018-06, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.

  11. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 825-842.

    Cited by:

    1. Aobdia, Daniel & Cheng, Lin, 2018. "Unionization, product market competition, and strategic disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 331-357.

  12. Anna Cororaton & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2011. "How does slack influence inflation?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(June).

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Fontanari, & Antonella Palumbo & Chiara Salvatori, 2019. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun`s Original Method," Working Papers Series 93, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    2. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    3. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Jun Il Kim, 2014. "Comments on James Morley's paper," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 51-54, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, 2016. "Globalization, market structure and inflation dynamics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 289, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Renaud St-Cyr, 2018. "Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-3, Bank of Canada.
    7. Lars Osberg, 2011. "Why Did Unemployment Disappear from Official Macro-Economic Policy Discourse in Canada?," New Directions for Intelligent Government in Canada: Papers in Honour of Ian Stewart, in: Fred Gorbet & Andrew Sharpe (ed.),New Directions for Intelligent Government in Canada: Papers in Honour of Ian Stewart, pages 127-162, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    8. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Peter Kriesler & J W Nevile & G C Harcourt, 2013. "Exchange rates and the macroeconomy in an era of global financial crises, with special reference to Australia," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 24(1), pages 51-63, March.
    10. Uxó, Jorge & Febrero, Eladio & Ayala, Iván & Villanueva, Paloma, 2024. "Debt sustainability and policy targets: Full employment or structural balance? A simulation for the Spanish economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 475-487.
    11. Peter Hooper, 2018. "The case against price-level targeting," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 145-155, July.
    12. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
    13. Liu, Yuelin & Morley, James, 2014. "Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-68.
    14. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    15. Kapur, Muneesh, 2013. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for India and inflation forecasting," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 17-27.
    16. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.
    17. Kanellopoulos, Nikolaos C. & Koutroulis, Aristotelis G., 2016. "Non-linearities in euro area inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    18. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. J.W. Nevile & Peter Kriesler & Geoff Harcourt, 2011. "Exchange Rate Management in an Era of Global Financial Crises with special reference to Australia," Discussion Papers 2012-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. John Lodewijks & John W Nevile, 2013. "John Nevile: The last two decades," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 135-149, June.
    21. Lars Osberg, 2018. "Full Employment in Canada in the early 21st Century," Working Papers daleconwp2018-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.

  13. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).

    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    3. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    5. Binder, Carola, 2017. "Consumer forecast revisions: Is information really so sticky?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 112-115.
    6. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    7. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    8. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
    9. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Donghoon Lee & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Household Debt and Saving during the 2007 Recession," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 273-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2017. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 51-72.
    13. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    14. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2021. "The Bureau for Economic Research's inflation expectations surveys: Know your data," Working Papers 10/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    15. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    16. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.

  14. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2010. "The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 200-207, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Falck & Mathias Hoffmann & Patrick Hürtgen, 2018. "Disagreement and Monetary Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 655, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Bajgiran, Amirsaman H. & Mardikoraem, Mahsa & Soofi, Ehsan S., 2021. "Maximum entropy distributions with quantile information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 196-209.
    3. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    5. Zohar, Osnat, 2024. "Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-04141344, HAL.
    7. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    9. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    10. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    11. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    12. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
    13. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," AQR Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jun 2018.
    15. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2019. "Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations," Working Papers 0664, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    16. Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
    17. Ewa Stanisławska & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey," NBP Working Papers 338, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    18. Tatsuro Senga, 2015. "New Look at Uncertainty Shocks: Imperfect Information and Misallocation," 2015 Meeting Papers 1373, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2023. "Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements," Working Paper Series 2770, European Central Bank.
    20. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    21. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    22. Meeks, Roland & Monti, Francesca, 2023. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 41-54.
    23. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
    24. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
    25. Schmidt, Torsten, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Outputgap," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    26. Gauvin, Ludovic & McLoughlin, Cameron & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England working papers 512, Bank of England.
    27. Philippe Andrade & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2013. "Fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    28. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
    29. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145888, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    30. Kieren, Pascal & König-Kersting, Christian & Schmidt, Robert J. & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Theurich, Franziska, 2024. "First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about households and firms," Discussion Papers 18/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2015. "Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever," Working Paper 15-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    32. Thomas Gomez & Giulia Piccillo, 2023. "Does U.S. Monetary Policy Respond to Macroeconomic Uncertainty?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10407, CESifo.
    33. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
    34. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    35. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
    36. Klein, Tony, 2021. "Agree to Disagree? Predictions of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Changes between 2008 and 2020 and the Impact of the COVID19 Labor Shock," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    37. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    38. David Iselin & Andreas Dibiasi, 2019. "Measuring Knightian Uncertainty," KOF Working papers 19-456, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    39. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    40. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
    41. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
    42. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    43. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1238-1254.
    44. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    45. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2014. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 163-185, April.
    47. Kenneth Wallis, 2011. "Combining forecasts - forty years later," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 33-41.
    48. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    49. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    50. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    51. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    52. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    53. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    54. Pascal Kieren & Christian König-Kersting & Robert Schmidt & Stefan Trautmann & Franziska Heinicke, 2023. "First-Order and Higher-Order Inflation Expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms," Working Papers 2023-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    55. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    56. Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," Working Papers 2021-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Nov 2021.
    57. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    58. Joshua C C Chan & Yong Song, 2017. "Measuring inflation expectations uncertainty using high-frequency data," CAMA Working Papers 2017-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    59. Adra, Samer & Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Saunders, Anthony, 2020. "The impact of monetary policy on M&A outcomes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    60. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    61. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    62. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    63. Dovern, Jonas, 2014. "A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data," Working Papers 0571, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    64. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    65. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    66. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
    67. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    68. Steffen Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2013. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: A common factor analysis," ifo Working Paper Series 167, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    69. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    70. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    71. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
    72. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
    73. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
    74. Stefano Eusepi & Richard Crump & Emanuel Moench & Philippe Andrade, 2014. "Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement," 2014 Meeting Papers 797, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    75. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.
    76. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2019. "Firms' Subjective Uncertainty and Forecast Errors," Discussion papers 19055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    77. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    78. Fabian Kruger, 2024. "A Kernel Score Perspective on Forecast Disagreement and the Linear Pool," Papers 2412.09430, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    79. M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, 2016. "A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?," Working Papers wp1062, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    80. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.
    81. Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.
    82. Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    83. Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2015. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well-Anchored? Evidence From The Euro Area And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 65-82, January.
    84. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    85. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    86. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    87. Christensen, Peter & Gillingham, Kenneth & Nordhaus, William, 2016. "Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Productivity Growth," Conference papers 332787, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    88. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    89. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    90. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    91. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.
    92. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.
    93. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2020. "The Information Content and Statistical Properties of Diffusion Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 47-99, September.

  15. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen & Joseph Song, 2009. "Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Sep).

    Cited by:

    1. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Richard Deitz & Andrew F. Haughwout & Charles Steindel, 2010. "The recession's impact on the state budgets of New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Jun/Jul).
    3. James A. Orr & John Sporn, 2012. "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: a review of stimulus spending in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Sept).

  16. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Robert W. Rich & Charles Steindel, 2007. "A comparison of measures of core inflation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Dec), pages 19-38.

    Cited by:

    1. Jim Dolmas, 2009. "Excluding items from personal consumption expenditures inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    2. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.
    3. James B. Bullard, 2011. "Measuring inflation: the core is rotten," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(July), pages 223-234.
    4. Jim Lee, 2009. "Food and Energy Prices in Core Inflation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 847-860.
    5. Sahu, Priyanka, 2018. "The Impact of Shocks on Core Inflation; Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 86588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
    7. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Jim Dolmas & Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Measuring core inflation: notes from a 2007 Dallas Fed conference," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May.
    9. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Eliana González & José Vicente Romero & José Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2010. "Assessing inflationary pressures in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 129-171, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2017. "Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures," MPRA Paper 80496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Amy Higgins & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2015. "Tracking Trend Inflation: Nonseasonally Adjusted Variants of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers (Old Series) 1527, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2017. "Output gains from accelerating core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-74.
    13. Jinill Kim & Byung Kwun Ahn, 2012. "A New Measure for Core Inflation Based on Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 18(2), pages 1-28, June.
    14. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    15. Bermingham, Colin, 2010. "A critical assessment of existing estimates of US core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 993-1007, December.
    16. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "A policy-sensible benchmark core inflation measure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 648-672, December.
    17. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
    18. Eliana R. González-Molano & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Edgar Caicedo-García & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Jose Vicente Romero & Anderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Nueva Clasificación del BANREP de la Canasta del IPC y revisión de las medidas de Inflación Básica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Alan K. Detmeister, 2012. "What should core inflation exclude?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Mr. James P Walsh, 2011. "Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2011/071, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Constructing U.K. Core Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, April.

  18. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2006. "Tracking productivity in real time," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Nov).

    Cited by:

    1. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    2. James B. Bullard, 2018. "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 60-65, April.
    3. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a Productive Decade," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 81-152.
    4. Alexander Cline & James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2025. "Is High Productivity Growth Returning?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(01), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Christian Weller & Luke Reidenbach, 2011. "On Uneven Ground," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 5-37.
    6. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  19. Robert Rich & Jason Bram & Andrew Haughwout & James Orr & Rae Rosen & Rebecca Sela, 2005. "Using Regional Economic Indexes to Forecast Tax Bases: Evidence from New York," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 627-634, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models," Working Papers (Old Series) 1121, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen & Joseph Song, 2009. "Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Sep).

  20. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2004. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 270-287, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Alexis Antoniades & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2004. "The historical and recent behavior of goods and services inflation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 19-31.

    Cited by:

    1. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Clotilde Pfingstag & Vincent Grossmann-Wirth, 2010. "Ni déflation, ni spirale inflationniste aux États-Unis : l’apport d’une modélisation par secteurs de l’inflation sous-jacente," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 187-195.
    3. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    5. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    7. Rebecca J. Sela & Clifford M. Hurvich, 2009. "Computationally efficient methods for two multivariate fractionally integrated models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(6), pages 631-651, November.
    8. Stefanos Kechagias & Vladas Pipiras, 2020. "Modeling bivariate long‐range dependence with general phase," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 268-292, March.
    9. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    11. Esteve, Vicente & Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Martinez-Serrano, Jose Antonio & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael, 2006. "Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between goods and services inflation in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1033-1039, December.
    12. Gent Bajraj & Guillermo Carlomagno & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2023. "Where is the Inflation? The Diverging Patterns of Prices of Goods and Services," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 969, Central Bank of Chile.

  22. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2001. "Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 73-94.

    Cited by:

    1. Jason Bram & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  24. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2000. "Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Jul).

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3-18.
    2. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    4. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    5. Grömling, Michael, 2000. "Hintergründe der Euro-Abwertung," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 27(3), pages 5-19.
    6. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2001. "Structural change in U.S. wage determination," Staff Reports 117, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. William R White, 2000. "Discussion of 'What Went Right in the 1990s? Sources of American and Prospects for World Economic Growth'," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.
    10. Scherrer, Christoph, 2001. "New economy: Explosive growth driven by a productivity revolution?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Regulation of Work FS II 01-204, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    11. Mark Setterfield & Kristen Leblond, 2003. "The phillips curve and US macroeconomic performance during the 1990s," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-376.
    12. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24-43.

  25. James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 1999. "Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Oct).

    Cited by:

    1. Jesse Edgerton & Andrew F. Haughwout & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "Revenue implications of New York City's tax system," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Apr).
    2. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2012. "Un Indicatore per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia (Nuova versione)," Quaderni di Dipartimento 158, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    3. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2007. "Job growth in New York and New Jersey: mid-2007 review and outlook," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Aug).
    4. Jason Bram & James A. Orr, 2006. "Taking the pulse of the New York City economy," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(May).
    5. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter & Rebecca J. Sela, 2004. "Economic restructuring in New York State," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Jun).
    6. Michael A. Kouparitsas & Daisuke J. Nakajima, 2006. "Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q III), pages 45-60.
    7. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "New York and New Jersey poised for modest job growth in 2005," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    8. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen & Joseph Song, 2009. "Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Sep).

  26. Rich, Robert W & Butler, J S, 1998. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 411-419, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," ifo Working Paper Series 60, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    4. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    6. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    7. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    8. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    9. Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
    11. Badarinza, Cristian & Gross, Marco, 2011. "Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations," Working Paper Series 1407, European Central Bank.
    12. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    13. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    15. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caio Ferrari Ferreira, 2019. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the effects of uncertainty about exchange rate on uncertainties about both inflation and interest rate?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 649-678, October.
    16. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    17. Atalla, Tarek & Joutz, Fred & Pierru, Axel, 2016. "Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1178-1192.
    18. Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2011. "Enflasyon Belirsizligi ve Beklentilerdeki Uyusmazlik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1104, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    20. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
    21. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," Economic Research Papers 269880, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

  27. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Erratum [Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach]," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 555-555, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis," Working Papers 201470, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2014. "Nonlinearity, Volatility and Fractional Integration in Daily Oil Prices: Smooth Transition Autoregressive ST-FI(AP)GARCH Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 108-135, October.
    4. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Laure Crusson & Muriel Barlet, 2009. "Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 188(2), pages 23-41.
    6. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis," Working Papers hal-01880335, HAL.
    9. Andreopoulos Spyros, 2009. "Oil Matters: Real Input Prices and U.S. Unemployment Revisited," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, March.
    10. Ping Chen & Hailiang Yang, 2010. "Pension funding problem with regime‐switching geometric Brownian motion assets and liabilities," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 125-141, March.
    11. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Jun, Nagayasu, 2013. "The Forward Premium Puzzle and The Euro," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-65, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    13. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: What can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Post-Print hal-01411817, HAL.
    14. Gallo, Andres & Mason, Paul & Shapiro, Steve & Fabritius, Michael, 2010. "What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4126-4141.
    15. Molyneaux, Lynette & Brown, Colin & Foster, John & Wagner, Liam, 2016. "Resilience, coal and the macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 74516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    17. Fardous Alom, 2014. "Oil Price-Macroeconomic Relationship in Australia and New Zealand: Application of a Hidden Cointegration Technique," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 6(2), pages 105-128, July.
    18. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo Jose Regis, 2008. "Nonlinearities and the order of integration of oil prices," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/15, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    20. Xavier Labandeira & Baltasar Manzano, 2012. "Some Economic Aspects of Energy Security," Working Papers 09-2012, Economics for Energy.
    21. Shiferaw, Y., 2018. "The Bayesian MS-GARCH model and Value-at-Risk in South African agricultural commodity price markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275991, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Patrice Guillotreau & Frédéric Lantz & Lesya Nadzon & Jonathan Rault & Olivier Maury, 2023. "Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 29-46.
    23. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Onur POLAT, 2018. "The Interaction between Oil Price and Financial Stress: Evidence from the U.S. Data," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 3.
    25. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    26. Vasif ABİYEV & Reşat CEYLAN & Munise ILIKKAN ÖZGÜR, 2015. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Turkish Business Cycle," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(25).
    27. Juan Reboredo, 2010. "Nonlinear effects of oil shocks on stock returns: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3735-3744.
    28. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    29. Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019. "Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.
    30. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Pape N'Diaye, 2001. "L'effet des politiques budgétaires sur l'activité : une fonction des conditions conjoncturelles et du régime budgétaire ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 73-88.
    31. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    32. Lescaroux, François, 2008. "Une revue interprétée des élasticités entre le PIB et le prix du pétrole," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(4), pages 415-447, Décembre.
    33. Spezia, Luigi, 2020. "Bayesian variable selection in non-homogeneous hidden Markov models through an evolutionary Monte Carlo method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    34. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable Energy, Oil Prices, and Economic Activity: A Granger-causality in Quantiles Analysis," MPRA Paper 84194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2018.
    35. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
    36. Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Bello, Ajide Kazeem & Agboola, Yusuf H., 2020. "A new insight into oil price-inflation nexus," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    40. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "A Model of Sustainable Growth with Renewables( Wind, CS, Algae) in Africa Europe Relation," MPRA Paper 74515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2015. "Valuing commodity options and futures options with changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 524-533.
    42. Manera, Matteo & Cologni, Alessandro, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis," Working Papers 201470, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
    3. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-346, March.
    4. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    6. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
    7. Trimbur, Thomas M., 2010. "Stochastic level shifts and outliers and the dynamics of oil price movements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 162-179, January.
    8. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2014. "Nonlinearity, Volatility and Fractional Integration in Daily Oil Prices: Smooth Transition Autoregressive ST-FI(AP)GARCH Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 108-135, October.
    9. Oreste Napolitano, 2009. "Is the impact of the ECB Monetary Policy on EMU stock market returns asymmetric?," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(97), pages 145-180.
    10. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    12. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "The Role of Permanent and Transitory Components in Business Cycle Volatility Moderation," Departmental Working Papers 200413, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    13. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Determinants: Time-Varying Transitional Dynamics," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-114, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
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    38. Bilgili, Faik & Tülüce, Nadide Sevil Halıcı & Doğan, İbrahim, 2012. "The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1161-1169.
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    43. Shiferaw, Y., 2018. "The Bayesian MS-GARCH model and Value-at-Risk in South African agricultural commodity price markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275991, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    44. Tang, Yusui & Ma, Feng, 2023. "The volatility of natural resources implications for sustainable development: Crude oil volatility prediction based on the multivariate structural regime switching," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    61. Patrick Vanhoudt, 1999. "Did the European unification induce economic growth? In search of scale effects and persistent changes," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(2), pages 193-220, June.
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    63. Ferreiro Javier Ojea, 2019. "Structural change in the link between oil and the European stock market: implications for risk management," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 53-125, January.
    64. Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019. "Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.
    65. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2007. "Using cross-wavelets to decompose the time-frequency relation between oil and the macroeconomy," NIPE Working Papers 16/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    66. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Pape N'Diaye, 2001. "L'effet des politiques budgétaires sur l'activité : une fonction des conditions conjoncturelles et du régime budgétaire ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 73-88.
    67. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañes & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2011. "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy," ERSA conference papers ersa10p835, European Regional Science Association.
    68. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2011. "Commodities and financial variables: Analyzing relationships in a changing regime environment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 469-484, October.
    69. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rather, Sartaj Rasool & Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2015. "Asymmetric price adjustment – evidence for India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 73-79.
    2. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2013. "Are there Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in India?," MPRA Paper 53059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nicholas C.S. Sim, 2009. "Modeling Quantile Dependence: A New Look at the Money-Output Relationship," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2009-34, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    4. Seewon Kim, 2018. "Effects of Monetary Policy during Financial Market Crises and Regime Changes: An Empirical Evaluation Using a Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 105-123, June.
    5. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Chen, Li-Hsueh & Yuan, Yuan, 2011. "Asymmetric convergence and risk shift in the TED spreads," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 277-297.
    6. Randall E. Parker & Phillip Rothman & Original: August 2000. This version: June 2003., "undated". "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre-World War I and Interwar Periods," Working Papers 0011, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    7. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2010. "Asymmetry dynamics in real exchange rates: New results on East Asian currencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 648-661, October.
    8. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    9. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
    10. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    11. Walter Enders & Selahattin Dibooglu, 2001. "Long‐Run Purchasing Power Parity with Asymmetric Adjustment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(2), pages 433-445, October.
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2007. "Are Nominal Exchange Rates and Price Levels Co‐Integrated? New Evidence from Threshold Autoregressive and Momentum‐Threshold Autoregressive Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 74-85, March.
    13. Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam, 2017. "Examining the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(3), pages 290-314, August.
    14. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    15. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
    16. Yamei Liu & Walter Enders, 2003. "Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts and Nonlinear Model Selection with an Example of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(3), pages 520-540, January.
    17. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    20. Karras, Georgios & Stokes, Houston H., 1999. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Evidence from prices, consumption, and investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 713-727.
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    22. Bitros, George C., 2021. "Destabilizing asymmetries in central banking: With some enlightenment from money in classical Athens," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
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    28. Olanrewaju, Akanbi Michael & Temitope, Dada James, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Industrial Output in Nigeria: A Dynamic Effect," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 6(01), January.
    29. Liu, Yamei, 2000. "Overfitting and forecasting: linear versus non-linear time series models," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014914, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    30. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Endogenous thresholds and tests for asymmetry in US prime rate movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 207-211, November.
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    32. Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su, 2010. "The Lending-Deposit Rate Relationship in Eastern European Countries: Evidence from the Rank Test for Non-linear Cointegration," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 534-544, December.
    33. Tkacz, Greg, 2004. "Inflation changes, yield spreads, and threshold effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-199.
    34. Jui-Chuan (Della) Chang & Dennis W. Jansen, 2005. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Lending and Aggregate Output: Asymmetries from Nonlinearities in the Lending Channel," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 129-153, May.
    35. Cook, Steven, 2003. "A Note on Business Cycle Non-Linearity in U. S. Consumption," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-7, November.
    36. Alper YILMAZ, 2024. "Bilateral J-Curve Between Türkiye and Its Major Non-EU Trading Partners: Evidence from Both Linear and Non-Linear Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 32(60).
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    44. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2006. "Are international real interest rate linkages characterized by asymmetric adjustments?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 384-396, October.
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    46. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2013. "A Note on Differential Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply and Policy Rate Shocks in India," MPRA Paper 53058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Steven Cook, 2003. "A Note on Business Cycle Non-Linearity in U. S. Consumption," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 247-253, November.
    48. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich & Byung Chul Yu, 2013. "Asymmetric adjustments in the spread of lending and deposit rates: Evidence from extended threshold unit root tests," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 187-193, November.
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    53. Victor Osei & E. Olawale Ogunkola, 2024. "Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Deficit Financing and Inflation Dynamics in Ghana," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, July.
    54. Mark Holmes, 2000. "Monetary Shocks, Inflation and the Asymmetric Adjustment of EU Output," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 253-263, September.
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  31. Bell, Clive & Rich, Robert, 1994. "Rural Poverty and Aggregate Agricultural Performance in Post-independence India," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 111-133, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 2002. "Is India's economic growth leaving the poor behind?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2846, The World Bank.
    2. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Farm productivity and rural poverty in India," FCND discussion papers 42, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Sushanta K. Mallick, 2012. "Disentangling the poverty effects of sectoral output, prices and policies in India," Development Papers 1202, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office.
    4. Kumar, Anjani & Kumar, Praduman & Sharma, Alakh N., 2011. "Rural Poverty and Agricultural Growth in India: Implications for the Twelfth Five Year Plan," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(3), pages 1-10.
    5. Tarlok Singh, 2022. "Economic growth and the state of poverty in India: sectoral and provincial perspectives," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1251-1302, August.
    6. Hertweck, Matthias & Brey, Bjoern, 2017. "The Persistent Effects of Monsoon Rainfall Shocks in India: A Nonlinear VAR Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168256, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Arne Bigsten & Jörgen Levin, 2001. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-129, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Arne Bigsten & Jörgen Levin, 2010. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty: A Review," Working Papers id:3296, eSocialSciences.
    9. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay, 2011. "Rich States, Poor States: Convergence And Polarisation In India," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(3), pages 414-436, July.
    10. Kuldeep Singh & Madhvendra Misra, 2021. "Developing an agricultural entrepreneur inclination model for sustainable agriculture by integrating expert mining and ISM–MICMAC," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5122-5150, April.
    11. Fan, Shenngen & Hazell, Peter & Haque, T., 2000. "Targeting public investments by agro-ecological zone to achieve growth and poverty alleviation goals in rural India," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 411-428, August.
    12. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Why have some Indian states done better than others at reducing rural poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1594, The World Bank.
    13. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1995. "Growth and poverty in rural India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1405, The World Bank.
    14. Mukherjee, Anit N. & Kuroda, Yoshimi, 2002. "Convergence in rural development: evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 385-398.
    15. Baba, Sajad H. & Saini, A.S. & Sharma, K.D. & Thakur, D.R., 2010. "Impact of Investment on Agricultural Growth and Rural Development in Himachal Pradesh: Dynamics of Public and Private Investment," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65(01), pages 1-24.
    16. Bisiriyu Sodiq Olaide & Malik Manzoor Hassan, 2024. "Accounting for the interconnectedness of globalization, growth, and poverty towards achieving sustainable development," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5655-5681, December.
    17. Mukherjee, Anit N. & Kuroda, Yoshimi, 2003. "Productivity growth in Indian agriculture: is there evidence of convergence across states?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 43-53, July.
    18. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1997. "Why have some Indian states performed better than others at reducing rural poverty?," FCND discussion papers 26, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Andrew Goudie & Paul Ladd, 1999. "Economic growth, poverty and inequality," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 177-195.
    20. Fan, Shenggen & Hazell, P. B. R., 1997. "Should India invest more in less-favored areas?:," EPTD discussion papers 25, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    21. Fan, Shenggen & Hazell, P. B. R., 1999. "Are returns to public investment lower in less-favored rural areas?: an empirical analysis of India," EPTD discussion papers 43, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    22. M. H. Suryanarayana, 2002. "Poverty in India: Misspecified Policies and Estimates," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-15, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Fan, Shenggen & Hazell, P. B. R. & Thorat, Sukhadeo, 1999. "Linkages between government spending, growth, and poverty in rural India:," Research reports 110, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    24. Thath, Rido, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Land and Labor Productivity on Poverty: The Case of Rice Farming Households in Cambodia," MPRA Paper 70920, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  32. Rich, Robert W. & Raymond, Jennie E. & Butler, J. S., 1993. "Testing for measurement errors in expectations from survey data : An instrumental variables approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-10.

    Cited by:

    1. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.

  33. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.

    Cited by:

    1. Christofides, L. & Peng, C., 2004. "Contract Duration and Indexation in a Period of Real and Nominal Uncertainty," Working Papers 2004-3, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "Macro expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-064, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    4. Kapuściński, Mariusz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2018. "Measuring bank funding costs in the analysis of interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-300.
    5. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2004. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 270-287, February.
    7. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2009. "Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 182-191.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    9. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    10. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    11. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    12. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    13. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modelling multi‐period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219, December.
    14. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    15. Hassan Heidari & Salih Turan Katircioglu & Sahar Bashiri, 2013. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth in the Iranian economy: an application of BGARCH-M model with BEKK approach," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 819-832, November.
    16. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
    17. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
    18. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.

  34. Rich, Robert W. & Raymond, Jennie & Butler, J. S., 1991. "Generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 179-185, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Marwan Al-Momani & Abdaljbbar B. A. Dawod, 2022. "Model Selection and Post Selection to Improve the Estimation of the ARCH Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Todd, Prono, 2009. "Simple, Skewness-Based GMM Estimation of the Semi-Strong GARCH(1,1) Model," MPRA Paper 30994, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jul 2011.
    3. Todd, Prono, 2009. "Market Proxies, Correlation, and Relative Mean-Variance Efficiency: Still Living with the Roll Critique," MPRA Paper 20031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2008. "A Tour in the Asymptotic Theory of GARCH Estimation," Working Papers 2008-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    5. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.
    6. Beum-Jo Park, 2009. "Risk-return relationship in equity markets: using a robust GMM estimator for GARCH-M models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 93-104.
    7. Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit," HWWA Discussion Papers 57, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    8. Bruce Felmincham & Peter Mansfield, 1997. "Rationality and the Risk Premium on the Australian dollar," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 47-59.
    9. Dinghai Xu, 2012. "Continuous Empirical Characteristic Function Estimation of GARCH Models," Working Papers 1204, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised May 2012.
    10. Todd, Prono, 2010. "Simple GMM Estimation of the Semi-Strong GARCH(1,1) Model," MPRA Paper 20034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chihwa Kao, 2001. "Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration Heteroskedasticity Models with Estimates of the Variances of Foreign Exchange Rates," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 34, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    12. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 1999. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,21, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    13. Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluss von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstatigkeit," Discussion Paper Series 26305, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    14. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    16. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.

  35. Rich, Robert W, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 682-686, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
    3. Miah, Fazlul & Rahman, M. Saifur & Albinali, Khalid, 2016. "Rationality of survey based inflation expectations: A study of 18 emerging economies’ inflation forecasts," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 158-166.
    4. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    5. Ilek, David & Ilek, Alex, 2007. "The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel," MPRA Paper 4704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Forecasting the South African Inflation Rate: On Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality," Working Papers 201475, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
    8. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    9. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    10. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 1999. "Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 331-338, March.
    12. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    13. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    14. Marc Simpson & Sanjay Ramchander, 2002. "Is differential sentiment a cause of closed-end country fund premia? An empirical examination of the Australian case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(9), pages 615-619.
    15. El in Ayka Alp & Zeynep Biyik, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Dynamics: A Structural Long-run Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 350-356.
    16. Dahl Christian M. & Hansen Niels L., 2001. "The Formation of Inflation Expectations under Changing Inflation Regimes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 1-31, January.

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