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Robert Rich

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG," Staff Reports 672, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The relationship between forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty: Evidence from a survey data—arch model (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1992) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Keshav Dogra & Sebastian Heise & Edward S. Knotek & Brent Meyer & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2023. "Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Cited by:

    1. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).

  2. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek II & Kristian O. Myrseth & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2023. "Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 31822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Diego Marino Fages, 2024. "Motivated Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Discussion Papers 2024-08, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.

  3. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Knotek, Edward S & Mitchell, James & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Shiroff, Taylor, 2024. "The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13758, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion & Geoff Kenny, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions," NBER Working Papers 33014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  4. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2022. "Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 22-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2023. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," Working Paper Series 2023-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    4. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2024. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

  5. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2022. "Surveys of Professionals," Working Papers 22-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Constructing fan charts from the ragged edge of SPF forecasts," Working Papers 2429, Banco de España.

  6. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 17356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Guerreiro, Joao & Hazell, Jonathon & Lian, Chen & Patterson, Christina, 2024. "Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs," IZA Discussion Papers 17339, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian & Möhrle, Sascha, 2024. "Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees," IZA Discussion Papers 17269, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.

  7. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments," Working Papers 21-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

  8. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    2. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    3. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2021. "“Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic”," AQR Working Papers 202104, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2021.
    5. Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Barrero, José María & Davis, Steven J. & Altig, David & Bloom, Nicholas, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 15229, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
      • Brent H. Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 29958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Dovern, Jonas & Glas, Alexander & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: a compositional data approach," Working Paper Series 2791, European Central Bank.
    8. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," BIS Working Papers 809, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "Firm Level Expectations and Macroeconomic Conditions: Underpinnings and Disagreement," CAMA Working Papers 2024-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
    13. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," BIS Working Papers 936, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    17. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.
    18. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2022. "Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation," Discussion Papers 2022/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    19. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    21. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.
    22. Hong, T., 2021. "Revisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2174, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    23. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    24. Yongchen Zhao, 2022. "Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 810-828, July.

  9. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.

  10. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Disinflation and reliability of underlying inflation measures," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps44, Bank of Russia.
    3. Eliana R. González-Molano & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Edgar Caicedo-García & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Jose Vicente Romero & Anderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Nueva Clasificación del BANREP de la Canasta del IPC y revisión de las medidas de Inflación Básica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Min Jeong Kim & Dohyoung Kwon, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy: an economic regime approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 136-147, March.
    5. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2014. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Icelandic Core Inflation," Economics wp67, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    6. The People's Bank of China, 2016. "An underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 117-121, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    8. Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," Bruegel Working Papers 853, Bruegel.
    9. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.

  11. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
    2. Angus Moore, 2016. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 17773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Rounding bias in forecast uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(4), pages 277-291.
    7. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    8. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Osnat Zohar, 2021. "Cyclicality of Uncertainty and Disagreement," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2021.09, Bank of Israel.
    10. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
    13. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    14. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2022. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 979-1022, July.
    15. Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2017. "Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-190.
    16. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    17. Elisabeth Falck & Mathias Hoffmann & Patrick Hürtgen, 2018. "Disagreement and Monetary Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 655, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
    19. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    21. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    22. Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2022. "Survey-derived proxies for uncertainty: the case of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 16(2), pages 27-56, December.
    23. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    25. Kapuściński, Mariusz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2018. "Measuring bank funding costs in the analysis of interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-300.
    26. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1715, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    27. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    28. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2018. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 85191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    30. Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    31. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
    32. Czudaj, Robert L., 2025. "Expectation formation and the Phillips curve revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    33. Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    34. Huang, Rong & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2022. "Are macroeconomic forecasters optimists or pessimists? A reassessment of survey based forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 706-724.
    35. Oinonen, Sami & Viren, Matti, 2021. "Effects of Monetary Policy Decisions on Professional Forecasters' Expectations and Expectation Uncertainty," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 245-280.
    36. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
    37. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    38. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    39. Schick, Manuel, 2024. "Real-time Nowcasting Growth-at-Risk using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0750, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    40. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    41. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
    42. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
    43. Sami Oinonen & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 139-163, November.
    44. Tomasz Łyziak & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times. Recent evidence from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBP Working Papers 261, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    45. Svetlana Makarova, 2018. "European Central Bank Footprints On Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 637-652, January.
    46. Jihye Jeon, 2022. "Learning and investment under demand uncertainty in container shipping," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(1), pages 226-259, March.
    47. Tao Wang, 2024. "How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 24-5, Bank of Canada.
    48. Fang, Libing & Qian, Yichuo & Chen, Ying & Yu, Honghai, 2018. "How does stock market volatility react to NVIX? Evidence from developed countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 490-499.
    49. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    50. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland.
    51. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.
    52. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy and Cost-Push Factors," MPRA Paper 119029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2018. "Effects of monetary policy decisions on professional forecasters' expectations and expectations uncertainty," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2018, Bank of Finland.
    54. Fabian Krüger, 2017. "Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 235-246, August.
    55. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
    56. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    57. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2014. "Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014, Bank of Finland.
    58. Tunc, Ahmet & Kocoglu, Mustafa & Aslan, Alper, 2022. "Time-varying characteristics of the simultaneous interactions between economic uncertainty, international oil prices and GDP: A novel approach for Germany," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    59. O. Grishchenko & S. Mouabbi & J.-P. Renne, 2017. "The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty," Working papers 622, Banque de France.
    60. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
    61. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    62. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.

  12. M. Henry Linder & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2012. "Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment," Liberty Street Economics 20121119, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.

  13. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Manzanares, Andrés & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
    2. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, July.
    5. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
    8. Peng, Amy & Yang, Ling, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 478-481, June.
    9. Wallis, Kenneth, 2006. "A note on the calculation of entropy from histograms," MPRA Paper 52856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    12. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Patricio A. Jaramillo & Juan Carlos Piantini, 2013. "Multimodality and mixture distributions: an application to a Survey of Economic Expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1801-1817, May.
    14. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.

  14. Robert W. Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Peter Hooper & Bruce C. Kasman & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Understanding the Evolving the Evolving Inflation Process," Working Papers 2007-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Priyanka Sahu, 2021. "A Study on the Dynamic Behaviour of Headline Versus Core Inflation: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1574-1593, December.
    3. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2011. "Has Core Inflation Been Doing a Good Job in Brazil?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(2), June.
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & François Geerolf & Sandrine Levasseur, 2022. "Heterogeneity of inflation in the euro area: more complicated than it seems," Post-Print hal-03970416, HAL.
    5. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2010. "Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation," MPRA Paper 22387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2010.
    6. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
    7. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2008. "Core Inflation - Why the Federal Reserve Got it Wrong," Working Papers 2008:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    9. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation," MPRA Paper 22409, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2010.
    10. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 17856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. John C. Williams, 2012. "Bank regulation in the post-crisis world," Speech 104, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Trimmed Indexes as Measures Of Trend Imacec," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 414, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2008. "Long-term linear trends in consumer price indices," MPRA Paper 6900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Christian Bordes & Samuel Maveyraud, 2008. "The Friedman's and Mishkin's Hypotheses (Re)Considered," Post-Print hal-00308571, HAL.
    16. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis," MPRA Paper 3520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester, 2006. "Core inflation as a predictor of total inflation," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Apr.
    18. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2013. "Forecasting and Tracking Real-Time Data Revisions in Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 53374, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2013.
    19. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    20. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Middendorf, Torge & Schäfer, Günter & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur im Zwischentief," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 59(1), pages 31-82.
    24. Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "Price co-movements, commonalities and responsiveness to monetary policy: empirical analysis under Indian conditions," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 25(2), pages 77-97, December.
    25. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    26. Tara Sinclair & Dennis W. Jansen & Michael D. Bradley, 2009. "How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2010-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    27. Oğuz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen, 2009. "Design and evaluation of core inflation measures for Turkey," IFC Working Papers 3, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. John C. Williams, 2011. "Maintaining price stability in a global economy," Speech 87, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 13089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    31. Julie K. Smith, 2012. "PCE inflation and core inflation," Working Papers 1203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    32. David Baqaee, 2009. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: the case in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    33. Stephen G Cecchetti & Richhild Moessner, 2008. "Commodity prices and inflation dynamics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    34. Castañeda, Juan Carlos & Chang, Rodrigo, 2023. "Evaluating core inflation measures: A statistical inference approach," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(4).
    35. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    36. Junhee Lee & Joonhyuk Song, 2009. "Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Scott T. Fullwiler & Geoffrey Allen, 2007. "Can the Fed Target Inflation? Toward an Institutionalist Approach," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 485-494, June.
    38. Junhee Lee & Joonhyuk Song, 2011. "Oil and Macroeconomy: The Case of Korea," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 263-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Heather L. R. Tierney, 2019. "Forecasting with the Nonparametric Exclusion-from-Core Inflation Persistence Model Using Real-Time Data," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 39-63, February.
    40. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Eftimoiu, Raluca, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between core and headline inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-53.
    41. Frank Leung & Kevin Chow & Simon Chan, 2010. "Measures of trend inflation in Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 177-200, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Abdul Aleem & Amine Lahiani, 2011. "Estimation and evaluation of core inflation measures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3619-3629.
    43. Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Sum), pages 289-313.

  15. Jason Bram & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "New York and New Jersey poised for modest job growth in 2005," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    2. Alan Clayton-Matthews & Theodore M. Crone, 2004. "Consistent economic indexes for the 50 states," Working Papers 04-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  16. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Staff Reports 159, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Chadha J. S., Samiri, I. & Samiri, I., 2024. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2437, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Kathryn Holston & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2016. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants," Working Paper Series 2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 207-298.
    7. Peter N. Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2006. "Productivity and U.S. macroeconomic performance: interpreting the past and predicting the future with a two-sector real business cycle model," Working Papers 06-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Papers (Old Series) 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2009. "Getting Income Shares Right," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(3), pages 254-266, August.
    10. Peter N. Ireland, 2008. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 14098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fernald, John, 2006. "Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements," CEPR Discussion Papers 5631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2015. "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers 723, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology‐Hours Debate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1071-1097, September.
    14. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Simon van Norden, 2010. "Lessons From the Latest Data on U.S. Productivity," CIRANO Working Papers 2010s-46, CIRANO.
    15. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2009. "Unmeasured investment and the puzzling U.S. boom in the 1990s," Staff Report 369, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Rochelle Edge & Thomas Laubach, 2004. "Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 123, Society for Computational Economics.
    18. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and 'global imbalances'," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Cantore, C. & Ferroni, F. & León-Ledesma, M A., 2011. "Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship," Working papers 351, Banque de France.
    20. Rachael McCririck & Daniel Rees, 2016. "The Slowdown in US Productivity Growth: Breaks and Beliefs," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and U.S. house prices before and after the crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 394-409.
    22. Gabriel Rodriguez-Rondon & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2024. "MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models," Papers 2411.08188, arXiv.org.
    23. Andrea Caggese & Ander Pérez-Orive, 2018. "Capital misallocation and secular stagnation," Economics Working Papers 1637, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2019.
    24. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    25. Caggese, Andrea & Pérez-Orive, Ander, 2022. "How stimulative are low real interest rates for intangible capital?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    26. Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," Working Papers 757, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    27. Deniz Nebioğlu, 2022. "Great Recession and news shocks: evidence based on an estimated DSGE model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1649-1685, April.
    28. Mathias Hoffmann & Michael U Krause & Thomas Laubach, 2019. "The Expectations-driven US Current Account," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 897-924.
    29. van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Current trends in the analysis of Canadian productivity growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 5-25, January.
    30. Jyoti Rahman & David Stephan & Gene Tunny, 2009. "Estimating trends in Australia's productivity," Treasury Working Papers 2009-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Feb 2009.
    31. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Getting Income Shares Right: A Panel Data Investigation for OECD Countries," Working Papers 0701, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    32. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
    33. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    34. Barraez, Daniel & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2009. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation: Looking at the future during uncertain times," MPRA Paper 106550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Dave, Chetan & Dressler, Scott & Malik, Samreen, 2022. "A Cautionary Tale of Fat Tails," Working Papers 2022-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    37. John G. Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity Puzzle in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Papers 020, The Productivity Institute.
    39. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    40. Paul Welfens, 2010. "Transatlantic banking crisis: analysis, rating, policy issues," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 3-48, May.
    41. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    42. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 397, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    43. Luigi Bocola & Nils M. Gornemann, 2013. "Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations," Working Papers 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    44. Arabinda Basistha, 2009. "Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206.
    45. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 713, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    46. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2018. "Testing the Number of Regimes in Markov Regime Switching Models," Papers 1801.06862, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    47. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    48. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    49. Shaw, Charles, 2018. "Regime-Switching And Levy Jump Dynamics In Option-Adjusted Spreads," MPRA Paper 94154, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2019.
    50. Timothy Cogley, "undated". "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    51. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    52. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    53. Biolsi, Christopher, 2021. "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    54. Juan F. Jimeno & Esther Moral & Lorena Saiz, 2006. "Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union," Working Papers 0625, Banco de España.
    55. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2003. "Lessons from the US growth resurgence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 453-470, July.
    56. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    57. James B. Bullard, 2018. "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 60-65, April.
    58. Ellen McGrattan & Edward Prescott, 2006. "Why Did U.S. Market Hours Boom in the 1990s?," NBER Working Papers 12046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2021. "The Impact of COVID on Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2021-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    60. Philipp Wegmueller, 2015. "International Evidence on Time-Variation in Trend Labor Productivity Growth," Diskussionsschriften dp1602, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    61. Janice C. dup Eberly & John dup Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    62. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.

  17. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2003. "Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence," Staff Reports 161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Capistr¡N & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, March.
    2. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2006. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 871, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    6. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modelling multi‐period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219, December.
    7. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
    8. Awartani, Basel & Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Virk, Nader, 2024. "How do the gold intra-day returns and volatility react to monetary policy shocks?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    9. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
    11. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 787, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 365-396, March.
    14. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
    15. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
    16. Andersson, Magnus & Hansen, Lars Jul & Sebestyén, Szabolcs, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank.

  18. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Uncertainty and labor contract durations," Staff Reports 106, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Louis Christofides & Amy Chen Peng, 2007. "Real Wage Chronologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2096, CESifo.
    2. Christofides, L. & Peng, C., 2004. "Contract Duration and Indexation in a Period of Real and Nominal Uncertainty," Working Papers 2004-3, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Krusell, Per & Rudanko, Leena, 2016. "Unions in a frictional labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 35-50.
    4. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kobielarz, Michal L. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2015. "Exact present solution with consistent future approximation: a gridless algorithm to solve stochastic dynamic models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86278, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Denis Fougère & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Roux, 2018. "Wage floor rigidity in industry-level agreements: Evidence from France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399597, HAL.
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    8. Genda, Yuji & Heckel, Markus & Kambayashi, Ryo, 2019. "Employees who do not know their labour contract term and the implications for working conditions: Evidence from Japanese and Spanish microdata," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 95-104.
    9. E. Gautier & D. Fougère & S. Roux, 2016. "The Impact of the National Minimum Wage on Industry-Level Wage Bargaining in France," Working papers 587, Banque de France.
    10. Hsuan-Yu Lin & Chih-Hai Yang, 2016. "Uncertainty, specific investment, and contract duration: evidence from the MLB player market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1009-1028, May.
    11. Fregert, Klas & Jonung, Lars, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Is a Success, So Far: 100 Years of Evidence from Swedish Wage Contracts," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. D. Fougere & E. Gautier & S. Roux, 2017. "Understanding Wage Floor Setting in Industry-Level Agreements: Evidence from France," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2017-01, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    13. Aobdia, Daniel & Cheng, Lin, 2018. "Unionization, product market competition, and strategic disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 331-357.
    14. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Danziger, Leif & Neuman, Shoshana, 2003. "Delays in Renewal of Labor Contracts: Theory and Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 709, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 825-842.
    18. Matthias Paustian, 2005. "The role of contracting schemes for the welfare costs of nominal rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 196, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    20. Danziger, Leif, 2006. "Extension of Labor Contracts and Optimal Backpay," IZA Discussion Papers 2366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Andrew T. Young & Hernando Zuleta, 2018. "Do Unions Increase Labor Shares? Evidence from US Industry-Level Data," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 558-575, September.
    22. Jonathan Yoder & Ishrat Hossain & Francis Eppin, 2005. "Contract Duration and the Division of Labor in Agricultural Land Leases," Others 0506011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Louis Christofides & Chen Peng, 2006. "Major Provisions of Labour Contracts and their Theoretical Coherence," CESifo Working Paper Series 1700, CESifo.
    24. Danziger, Leif, 2010. "Uniform and Nonuniform Staggering of Wage Contracts," IZA Discussion Papers 5023, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2011. "Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995," Staff Reports 521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Champagne, Julien & Kurmann, André, 2013. "The great increase in relative wage volatility in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 166-183.
    27. Peng, Amy & Yang, Ling, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 478-481, June.
    28. Corrado Benassi & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2003. "Indexation Rules, Risk Aversion and Imperfect Information," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 330-340, June.
    29. Klas Fregert & Lars Jonung, 2007. "Policy rule evaluation by contract-makers: 100 years of wage contract length in Sweden," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 270, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    30. Liu, Chunping & Peng, Amy, 2010. "A reinvestigation of contract duration using Quantile Regression for Counts analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 184-187, March.
    31. Yoder, Jonathan K. & Hossain, Ishrat & Epplin, Francis M. & Doye, Damona G., 2005. "Contract Duration and the Division of Labor in Agricultural Land Leases," Working Papers 12962, Washington State University, School of Economic Sciences.
    32. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.

  19. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Robert W. Rich, 1999. "Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio," Staff Reports 71, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Sacrifice Ratio in a Medium‐Scale New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 457-467, March.
    2. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    3. Jarociński, Marek, 2008. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Working Paper Series 970, European Central Bank.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Grosse-Steffen, Christoph & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Inflation targeting as a shock absorber," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Patrick F»Ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 289-323, March.
    7. Christopher G. Gibbs & Mariano Kulish, 2015. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2015-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Roy H. Webb, 1999. "Two approaches to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 23-40.
    9. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2012. "Disinflation in a DSGE perspective: Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 169-182.
    10. Ursel Baumann & David Lodge & Mirela S. Miescu, 2024. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 76-90, January.
    11. Leef H. Dierks, 2023. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio:The Case of Southeast Asia," Working Papers wp50, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    12. Lendvai, Julia, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank.
    13. Roman Hušek & Tomáš Formánek, 2005. "Estimation of the Czech Republic Sacrifice Ratio for the Transition Period," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(1), pages 51-63.
    14. Victor Pontines, 2020. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: Empirical evidence from Korea," CAMA Working Papers 2020-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Mamoudou, Toure & Jamel, Trabelsi & Frédéric, Dufourt, 2009. "Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 993-999, September.
    16. Dinabandhu Sethi & Wing-Keung Wong & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Can a Disinflationary Policy Have a Differential Impact on Sectoral Output? A Look at Sacrifice Ratios in OECD and Non-OECD Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 138-170, May.
    17. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "Une estimation de la cible implicite d’inflation dans la zone euro," TSE Working Papers 09-137, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    18. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    19. Marilyne Huchet & Jean-Jacques Durand & Julien Licheron, 2008. "Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone:What can be learned about implementing a Single Monetary Policy?," Post-Print halshs-00143793, HAL.
    20. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    21. Robert-Paul Berben & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Javier Vallés, 2005. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Working Papers 0502, Banco de España.
    22. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2020. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 115798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    24. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2010. "Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio? Disinflation in a DSGE monetary model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 736, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Zobia BHATTI & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Cost of Low Inflation in Case of Pakistan," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 257-268, June.
    26. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial frictions in a small open-economy model for Uganda," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1213-1241, September.
    27. Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2003. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers of BETA 2003-08, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    28. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    29. Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher & Naser Yenus Nuru, 2021. "Structural estimates of the South African sacrifice ratio," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-12, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    30. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
    31. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    32. Ravindra H. Dholakia & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2017. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 27-44, March.
    33. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    34. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Dholakia, Ravindra H. & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2015. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    36. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Thresholds for employment and unemployment: A spatial analysis of German regional labour markets, 1992–2000," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(4), pages 523-542, November.
    37. Coffinet, J., 2006. "Ratios de sacrifice et rigidités sur le marché du travail," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 151, pages 59-73.
    38. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2013. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-100.
    39. N. Kundan Kishor & Levis A. Kochin, 2007. "The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 56-70, January.
    40. Eduardo Loría & Raúl Tirado, 2022. "Sacrifice rate and labour precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 41(87), pages 427-456, December.
    41. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Inflation gifts restrictions for structural VARs: evidence from the US," Working Papers 16/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    42. Juncal Cunnado & Fernando PErez De Gracia, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: Some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337.
    43. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Fernando Pérez de Gracía Hidalgo, "undated". "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un análisis empírico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA.
    44. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    45. Peng, Amy & Yang, Ling, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 478-481, June.
    46. Eric Schaling & Kgotso Morema, 2022. "Optimalinterestrategapsforflexibleinflationtargeting," Working Papers 11037, South African Reserve Bank.
    47. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    48. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    49. Chrigui Zouhair & Boujelbene Younes, 2009. "The Opportunities for Adopting Inflation Targeting in Tunisia: a Cointegration Study and Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(3), pages 671-692, October.
    50. Ashima Goyal & Gagan Goel, 2021. "Correlated Shocks, Hysteresis, and the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2929-2945, August.
    51. Jérôme Coffinet & Céline Poilly, 2009. "Une évaluation structurelle du ratio de sacrifice dans la zone euro," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(2), pages 273-299.
    52. N. Johnson, Leroy, 2022. "Financial Frictions And Monetary Policy Shocks In Sierra Leone: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 9(2), pages 78-96, June.
    53. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.
    54. Aginta, Harry, 2023. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

  20. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Arslan, Mesut Murat, 2007. "Dynamics of Sticky Information and Sticky Price Models in a New Keynesian DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 5269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Edward N. Gamber & Juann Hung, 1999. "The Impact of Globalization on the U.S. Business Cycle: Technical Paper 1999-6," Working Papers 13342, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hyclak, Thomas & Ohn, Jonathan, 2001. "Wage inflation and the post-1991 duration puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 97-104, October.
    5. Higo, Masahiro & Nakada, Sachiko-Kuroda, 1999. "What Determines the Relation between the Output Gap and Inflation ? An International Comparison of Inflation Expectations and Staggered Wage Adjustment," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 129-155, December.
    6. Ewald Nowotny, 1999. "The Role of Macroeconomic Policy in Overcoming Slow Economic Growth - International Comparisons and Policy Perspectives," Working Papers geewp01, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.
    7. Carl R. Gwin & David D. Van Hoose, 2008. "Disaggregate Evidence On Price Stickiness And Implications For Macro Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 561-575, October.
    8. Paloviita, Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
    9. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Hogan, V., 2000. "The Behaviour of Inflation and Unemployment the United States," Papers 00/16, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
    11. Inoue, Tetsuya, 1998. "Impact of Information Technology and Implications for Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 16(2), pages 29-60, December.
    12. Dipesh Karki & Hari Gopal Risal, 2019. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation: Evidence from Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 31(1), pages 21-46, April.
    13. Claire Sensoli & Francisco Serranito & Thierry Latreille & Olivier Passet & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Hervé Péléraux & Henri Sterdyniak & Paola Veroni, 2000. "Tous ensemble ? Perspectives 2000-2001 pour l'économie mondiale," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01218109, HAL.
    14. Maritta Paloviita, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Macroeconomics 0405015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    16. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. David A. Brauer, 1997. "Do rising labor costs trigger higher inflation?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Sep).
    18. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2000. "Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Jul).
    19. Todd E. Clark, 1998. "Progress toward price stability : a 1997 inflation report," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q I), pages 5-21.
    20. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    21. Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE & Henri Sterdyniak & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Thierry Latreille & Catherine Mathieu & Olivier Passet & Christine Rifflart & Claire Sensoli & Paola Ve, 2000. "Tous ensemble ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(1), pages 7-113.
    22. Jordi Galí & David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips Curve for Spain," Working Papers 0109, Banco de España.
    23. C. Alan Garner, 2000. "An inflation report for 1999," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 85(Q I), pages 5-20.
    24. Mr. Angel J. Ubide & Mr. Kevin Ross, 2001. "Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2001/203, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, 2010. "Key Elements of Global Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    26. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2001. "Structural change in U.S. wage determination," Staff Reports 117, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    28. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    30. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Carlson, John B. & Craig, Ben & Schwarz, Jeffrey C., 2000. "Structural uncertainty and breakpoint tests: an application to equilibrium velocity1," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 101-115.
    32. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    33. C. Alan Garner, 1998. "A closer look at the employment cost index," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q III), pages 63-78.

Articles

  1. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(11), pages 1-7, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.

  3. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(03), pages 1-9, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  4. Robert W. Rich & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(05), pages 1-7, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures," Working Papers 22-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 30 May 2023.
    2. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.

  5. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(09), pages 1-7, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(11), pages 1-7, July.
    2. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    3. Guido Bulligan & Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 624, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Hüpper, Florian & Kempa, Bernd, 2023. "Inflation targeting and inflation communication of the Federal Reserve: Words and deeds," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

  7. Michael Morris & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2020. "How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(19), pages 1-9, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Raquel Carrasco & José Ignacio Garcia-Pérez & Juan Francisco Jimeno, 2020. "Worker Flows and Wage Dynamics: Estimating Wage Growth without Composition Effects," Working Papers 20.13, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.

  8. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.

    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Matteo Luciani, 2020. "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," FEDS Notes 2020-03-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Gabriel Rodriguez-Rondon, 2024. "Underlying Core Inflation with Multiple Regimes," Papers 2411.12845, arXiv.org.
    5. Oğuz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen, 2009. "Design and evaluation of core inflation measures for Turkey," IFC Working Papers 3, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin & Matteo Luciani & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2021. "Inferential Theory for Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2021-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Schoenle, Raphael & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2019. "Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  9. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. M. Henry Linder & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2013. "The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Aug).

    Cited by:

    1. Joe Seydl & Malcolm Spittler, 2016. "Did globalization flatten the Phillips curve? U.S. consumer price inflation at the sectoral level," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 387-410, July.
    2. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    6. Saeed Zaman, 2019. "Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    7. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. A. Moutaabbid, 2024. "Les determinants de la dynamique des salaires en France : approches macro et sectorielles par la courbe de Phillips," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-20, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    9. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Baoping Shang, 2016. "What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/124, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    11. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    12. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," NBER Working Papers 25987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 393-428, December.
    15. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    16. Danica Unevska-Andonova, 2018. "Inflation Decomposition Model: Application to Macedonian inflation," Working Papers 2018-06, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    17. Patrick C. Higgins, 2021. "The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2021(11), September.
    18. Viacheslav Kramkov, 2023. "Does CPI disaggregation improve inflation forecast accuracy?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps112, Bank of Russia.

  11. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 825-842.

    Cited by:

    1. Aobdia, Daniel & Cheng, Lin, 2018. "Unionization, product market competition, and strategic disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 331-357.

  12. Anna Cororaton & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2011. "How does slack influence inflation?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(June).

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Fontanari, & Antonella Palumbo & Chiara Salvatori, 2019. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun`s Original Method," Working Papers Series 93, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    2. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Kriesler & J W Nevile & G C Harcourt, 2013. "Exchange rates and the macroeconomy in an era of global financial crises, with special reference to Australia," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 24(1), pages 51-63, March.
    4. Uxó, Jorge & Febrero, Eladio & Ayala, Iván & Villanueva, Paloma, 2024. "Debt sustainability and policy targets: Full employment or structural balance? A simulation for the Spanish economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 475-487.
    5. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    6. Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2020. "Globalization, market structure and inflation dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Peter Hooper, 2018. "The case against price-level targeting," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 145-155, July.
    8. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
    10. J.W. Nevile & Peter Kriesler & Geoff Harcourt, 2011. "Exchange Rate Management in an Era of Global Financial Crises with special reference to Australia," Discussion Papers 2012-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    11. Kapur, Muneesh, 2013. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for India and inflation forecasting," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 17-27.
    12. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    14. Jun Il Kim, 2014. "Comments on James Morley's paper," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 51-54, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Lars Osberg, 2011. "Why Did Unemployment Disappear from Official Macro-Economic Policy Discourse in Canada?," Working Papers daleconwp2011-03, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    16. John Lodewijks & John W Nevile, 2013. "John Nevile: The last two decades," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 135-149, June.
    17. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    18. Lars Osberg, 2018. "Full Employment in Canada in the early 21st Century," Working Papers daleconwp2018-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    19. Renaud St-Cyr, 2018. "Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-3, Bank of Canada.
    20. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.
    21. Kanellopoulos, Nikolaos C. & Koutroulis, Aristotelis G., 2016. "Non-linearities in euro area inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.

  13. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).

    Cited by:

    1. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Donghoon Lee & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Household Debt and Saving during the 2007 Recession," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 273-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    4. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
    5. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    6. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Staff Reports 800, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    8. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2021. "The Bureau for Economic Research's inflation expectations surveys: Know your data," Working Papers 10/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    9. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
    10. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2012. "The price is right: updating of inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment," Staff Reports 543, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Binder, Carola, 2017. "Consumer forecast revisions: Is information really so sticky?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 112-115.
    12. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    13. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
    14. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.
    16. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.

  14. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2010. "The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 200-207, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Gomez & Giulia Piccillo, 2023. "Does U.S. Monetary Policy Respond to Macroeconomic Uncertainty?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10407, CESifo.
    2. Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
    4. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 17773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Andreas Dibiasi, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03391638, HAL.
    8. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    9. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
    10. Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2015. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well-Anchored? Evidence From The Euro Area And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 65-82, January.
    11. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    12. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2011. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3671, CESifo.
    13. Osnat Zohar, 2021. "Cyclicality of Uncertainty and Disagreement," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2021.09, Bank of Israel.
    14. Klein, Tony, 2021. "Agree to Disagree? Predictions of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Changes between 2008 and 2020 and the Impact of the COVID19 Labor Shock," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    15. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    16. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
    18. Dovern, Jonas, 2014. "A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data," Working Papers 0571, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    19. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    20. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Elisabeth Falck & Mathias Hoffmann & Patrick Hürtgen, 2018. "Disagreement and Monetary Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 655, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    23. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
    24. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    25. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
    26. Henzel, Steffen R. & Rengel, Malte, 2017. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: a common factor analysis," Munich Reprints in Economics 49932, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    27. Bajgiran, Amirsaman H. & Mardikoraem, Mahsa & Soofi, Ehsan S., 2021. "Maximum entropy distributions with quantile information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 196-209.
    28. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    30. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1238-1254.
    31. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    32. Christensen, Peter & Gillingham, Kenneth & Nordhaus, William, 2016. "Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Productivity Growth," Conference papers 332787, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    33. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    35. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2020. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," Working Paper Series in Economics 139, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    36. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    37. Brent Meyer & Xuguang Sheng, 2024. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-12b, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    38. Michael Clements, 2017. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    39. Kenneth Wallis, 2011. "Combining forecasts - forty years later," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 33-41.
    40. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    41. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    42. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
    43. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    44. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    45. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    46. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    47. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    48. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    49. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    50. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," IREA Working Papers 201806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    51. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    52. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    53. Tatsuro Senga, 2014. "A New Look at Uncertainty Shocks: Imperfect Information and Misallocation," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 042, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    54. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    55. Meeks, Roland & Monti, Francesca, 2019. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the Phillips curve," Bank of England working papers 807, Bank of England.
    56. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," ifo Working Paper Series 111, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    57. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    58. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    59. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    60. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
    61. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    62. Pascal Kieren & Christian König-Kersting & Robert Schmidt & Stefan Trautmann & Franziska Heinicke, 2023. "First-Order and Higher-Order Inflation Expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms," Working Papers 2023-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    63. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    64. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
    65. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    66. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
    67. Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
    68. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
    69. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
    70. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    71. Ewa Stanisławska & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey," NBP Working Papers 338, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    72. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
    73. Stefano Eusepi & Richard Crump & Emanuel Moench & Philippe Andrade, 2014. "Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement," 2014 Meeting Papers 797, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    74. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    75. Adra, Samer & Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Saunders, Anthony, 2020. "The impact of monetary policy on M&A outcomes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    76. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.
    77. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2019. "Firms' Subjective Uncertainty and Forecast Errors," Discussion papers 19055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    78. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    79. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
    80. Schmidt, Torsten, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Outputgap," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    81. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.
    82. Gauvin, Ludovic & McLoughlin, Cameron & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England working papers 512, Bank of England.
    83. Philippe Andrade & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2013. "Fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    84. Fabian Kruger, 2024. "A Kernel Score Perspective on Forecast Disagreement and the Linear Pool," Papers 2412.09430, arXiv.org.
    85. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.
    86. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
    87. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2020. "The Information Content and Statistical Properties of Diffusion Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 47-99, September.
    88. M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, 2016. "A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?," Working Papers wp1062, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    89. Kieren, Pascal & König-Kersting, Christian & Schmidt, Robert J. & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Theurich, Franziska, 2024. "First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about households and firms," Discussion Papers 18/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    90. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2015. "Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever," Working Paper 15-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    91. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    92. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.
    93. Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.

  15. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen & Joseph Song, 2009. "Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Sep).

    Cited by:

    1. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. James A. Orr & John Sporn, 2012. "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: a review of stimulus spending in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Sept).
    3. Richard Deitz & Andrew F. Haughwout & Charles Steindel, 2010. "The recession's impact on the state budgets of New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Jun/Jul).

  16. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Robert W. Rich & Charles Steindel, 2007. "A comparison of measures of core inflation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Dec), pages 19-38.

    Cited by:

    1. Amy Higgins & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2015. "Tracking Trend Inflation: Nonseasonally Adjusted Variants of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers (Old Series) 1527, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Sahu, Priyanka, 2018. "The Impact of Shocks on Core Inflation; Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 86588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
    4. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Eliana González & Jose Vicente Romero & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009. "Assessing Inflationary Pressures in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 558, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
    6. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2017. "Output gains from accelerating core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-74.
    8. Eliana R. González-Molano & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Edgar Caicedo-García & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Jose Vicente Romero & Anderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Nueva Clasificación del BANREP de la Canasta del IPC y revisión de las medidas de Inflación Básica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Jim Dolmas & Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Measuring core inflation: notes from a 2007 Dallas Fed conference," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May.
    10. Jinill Kim & Byung Kwun Ahn, 2012. "A New Measure for Core Inflation Based on Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 18(2), pages 1-28, June.
    11. Alan K. Detmeister, 2012. "What should core inflation exclude?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. James B. Bullard, 2011. "Measuring inflation: the core is rotten," Speech 180, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in Latin America with core measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1060-1071.
    14. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    15. Mr. James P Walsh, 2011. "Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2011/071, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bermingham, Colin, 2010. "A critical assessment of existing estimates of US core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 993-1007, December.
    17. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "A policy-sensible benchmark core inflation measure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 648-672, December.
    18. Jim Dolmas, 2009. "Excluding items from personal consumption expenditures inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    19. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.
    20. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Constructing U.K. Core Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, April.
    21. Jim Lee, 2009. "Food and Energy Prices in Core Inflation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 847-860.

  18. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2006. "Tracking productivity in real time," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Nov).

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a Productive Decade," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 81-152.
    2. Christian Weller & Luke Reidenbach, 2011. "On Uneven Ground," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 5-37.
    3. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    5. James B. Bullard, 2018. "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 60-65, April.

  19. Robert Rich & Jason Bram & Andrew Haughwout & James Orr & Rae Rosen & Rebecca Sela, 2005. "Using Regional Economic Indexes to Forecast Tax Bases: Evidence from New York," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 627-634, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. Mccracken, 2014. "Tests Of Equal Forecast Accuracy For Overlapping Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 415-430, April.
    2. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen & Joseph Song, 2009. "Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Sep).

  20. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2004. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 270-287, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Alexis Antoniades & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2004. "The historical and recent behavior of goods and services inflation," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 19-31.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    3. Esteve, Vicente & Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Martinez-Serrano, Jose Antonio & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael, 2006. "Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between goods and services inflation in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1033-1039, December.
    4. Rebecca J. Sela & Clifford M. Hurvich, 2009. "Computationally efficient methods for two multivariate fractionally integrated models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(6), pages 631-651, November.
    5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    6. Stefanos Kechagias & Vladas Pipiras, 2020. "Modeling bivariate long‐range dependence with general phase," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 268-292, March.
    7. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Clotilde Pfingstag & Vincent Grossmann-Wirth, 2010. "Ni déflation, ni spirale inflationniste aux États-Unis : l’apport d’une modélisation par secteurs de l’inflation sous-jacente," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 187-195.
    10. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    11. Gent Bajraj & Guillermo Carlomagno & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2023. "Where is the Inflation? The Diverging Patterns of Prices of Goods and Services," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 969, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  22. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2001. "Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 73-94.

    Cited by:

    1. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jason Bram & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  24. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2000. "Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Jul).

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. William R White, 2000. "Discussion of 'What Went Right in the 1990s? Sources of American and Prospects for World Economic Growth'," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Grömling, Michael, 2000. "Hintergründe der Euro-Abwertung," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 27(3), pages 5-19.
    4. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.
    5. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3-18.
    6. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24-43.
    8. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    9. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    11. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2001. "Structural change in U.S. wage determination," Staff Reports 117, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Scherrer, Christoph, 2001. "New economy: Explosive growth driven by a productivity revolution?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Regulation of Work FS II 01-204, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    13. Mark Setterfield & Kristen Leblond, 2003. "The phillips curve and US macroeconomic performance during the 1990s," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-376.

  25. James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen, 1999. "Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Oct).

    Cited by:

    1. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter & Rebecca J. Sela, 2004. "Economic restructuring in New York State," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Jun).
    2. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2012. "Un Indicatore per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia (Nuova versione)," Quaderni di Dipartimento 158, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    3. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "New York and New Jersey poised for modest job growth in 2005," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    4. Michael A. Kouparitsas & Daisuke J. Nakajima, 2006. "Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q III), pages 45-60.
    5. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2007. "Job growth in New York and New Jersey: mid-2007 review and outlook," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Aug).
    6. Jason Bram & James A. Orr, 2006. "Taking the pulse of the New York City economy," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(May).
    7. Jesse Edgerton & Andrew F. Haughwout & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "Revenue implications of New York City's tax system," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Apr).
    8. Jason Bram & James A. Orr & Robert W. Rich & Rae D. Rosen & Joseph Song, 2009. "Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Sep).

  26. Rich, Robert W & Butler, J S, 1998. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 411-419, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Atalla, Tarek & Joutz, Fred & Pierru, Axel, 2016. "Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1178-1192.
    2. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    5. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," ifo Working Paper Series 60, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    8. Michael Clements, 2017. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    9. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    10. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," Economic Research Papers 269880, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    11. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    13. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," ifo Working Paper Series 111, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    15. Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2011. "Enflasyon Belirsizligi ve Beklentilerdeki Uyusmazlik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1104, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    16. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    17. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    18. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    19. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
    20. Badarinza, Cristian & Gross, Marco, 2011. "Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations," Working Paper Series 1407, European Central Bank.
    21. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caio Ferrari Ferreira, 2019. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the effects of uncertainty about exchange rate on uncertainties about both inflation and interest rate?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 649-678, October.

  27. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Erratum [Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach]," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 555-555, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    2. Spezia, Luigi, 2020. "Bayesian variable selection in non-homogeneous hidden Markov models through an evolutionary Monte Carlo method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis," Working Papers 201470, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Fardous Alom, 2014. "Oil Price-Macroeconomic Relationship in Australia and New Zealand: Application of a Hidden Cointegration Technique," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 6(2), pages 105-128, July.
    5. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable Energy, Oil Prices, and Economic Activity: A Granger-causality in Quantiles Analysis," MPRA Paper 84194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2018.
    6. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    7. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    9. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Jun Nagayasu, 2013. "The forward premium puzzle and the euro," Working Papers 1317, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    11. Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019. "Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo Jose Regis, 2008. "Nonlinearities and the order of integration of oil prices," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/15, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    13. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Pape N. Diaye, 2001. "L'effet des politiques budgétaires sur l'activité : une fonction des conditions conjoncturelles et du régime budgétaire ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 73-88.
    14. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    15. Xavier Labandeira & Baltasar Manzano, 2012. "Some Economic Aspects of Energy Security," Working Papers 09-2012, Economics for Energy.
    16. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2014. "Nonlinearity, Volatility and Fractional Integration in Daily Oil Prices: Smooth Transition Autoregressive ST-FI(AP)GARCH Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 108-135, October.
    17. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
    18. Shiferaw, Y., 2018. "The Bayesian MS-GARCH model and Value-at-Risk in South African agricultural commodity price markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275991, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Patrice Guillotreau & Frédéric Lantz & Lesya Nadzon & Jonathan Rault & Olivier Maury, 2023. "Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 29-46.
    20. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Bello, Ajide Kazeem & Agboola, Yusuf H., 2020. "A new insight into oil price-inflation nexus," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    23. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
    24. Onur POLAT, 2018. "The Interaction between Oil Price and Financial Stress: Evidence from the U.S. Data," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 3.
    25. Laure Crusson & Muriel Barlet, 2009. "Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 188(2), pages 23-41.
    26. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2013. "Does Monetary Policy Respond to Commodity Price Shocks?," Post-Print hal-01511915, HAL.
    27. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    28. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    29. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    30. Andreopoulos Spyros, 2009. "Oil Matters: Real Input Prices and U.S. Unemployment Revisited," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, March.
    31. Vasif ABİYEV & Reşat CEYLAN & Munise ILIKKAN ÖZGÜR, 2015. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Turkish Business Cycle," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(25).
    32. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "A Model of Sustainable Growth with Renewables( Wind, CS, Algae) in Africa Europe Relation," MPRA Paper 74515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2015. "Valuing commodity options and futures options with changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 524-533.
    35. Ping Chen & Hailiang Yang, 2010. "Pension funding problem with regime‐switching geometric Brownian motion assets and liabilities," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 125-141, March.
    36. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    37. Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND OIL SHOCKS: ARE THE 1970s COMING BACK?," Post-Print hal-00720578, HAL.
    38. Manera, Matteo & Cologni, Alessandro, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
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    40. Lescaroux, François, 2008. "Une revue interprétée des élasticités entre le PIB et le prix du pétrole," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(4), pages 415-447, Décembre.
    41. Gallo, Andres & Mason, Paul & Shapiro, Steve & Fabritius, Michael, 2010. "What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4126-4141.
    42. Molyneaux, Lynette & Brown, Colin & Foster, John & Wagner, Liam, 2016. "Resilience, coal and the macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 74516, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel, Betty C. & Hafner, Christian M. & Simar, Léopold & Manner, Hans, 2019. "Asymmetries In Business Cycles And The Role Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1622-1648, June.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    3. Spezia, Luigi, 2020. "Bayesian variable selection in non-homogeneous hidden Markov models through an evolutionary Monte Carlo method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis," Working Papers 201470, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger & Eric Zivot, 2001. "Markov regime switching and unit root tests," Working Papers 2001-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    7. Fardous Alom, 2014. "Oil Price-Macroeconomic Relationship in Australia and New Zealand: Application of a Hidden Cointegration Technique," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 6(2), pages 105-128, July.
    8. Patrick Vanhoudt, 1999. "Did the European unification induce economic growth? In search of scale effects and persistent changes," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(2), pages 193-220, June.
    9. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Testing for Non-linearity," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, January.
    10. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    11. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
    12. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable Energy, Oil Prices, and Economic Activity: A Granger-causality in Quantiles Analysis," MPRA Paper 84194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2018.
    13. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-346, March.
    14. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
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    16. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
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    22. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
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    40. Patrice Guillotreau & Frédéric Lantz & Lesya Nadzon & Jonathan Rault & Olivier Maury, 2023. "Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 29-46.
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    48. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
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    54. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.
    55. Marc D. Weidenmier & Joseph H. Davis & Roger Aliaga-Diaz, 2008. "Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program," NBER Working Papers 14362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    57. Baltasar Manzano & Luis Rey, 2012. "The Welfare Cost of Energy Insecurity," Working Papers fa07-2012, Economics for Energy.
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    59. Paroli, Roberta & Spezia, Luigi, 2008. "Bayesian inference in non-homogeneous Markov mixtures of periodic autoregressions with state-dependent exogenous variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 2311-2330, January.
    60. Onur POLAT, 2018. "The Interaction between Oil Price and Financial Stress: Evidence from the U.S. Data," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 3.
    61. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 266, Society for Computational Economics.
    62. Laure Crusson & Muriel Barlet, 2009. "Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 188(2), pages 23-41.
    63. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2013. "Does Monetary Policy Respond to Commodity Price Shocks?," Post-Print hal-01511915, HAL.
    64. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    65. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    66. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
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    71. Spyros Andreopoulos, 2006. "The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/592, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    72. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices," Microeconomics 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    74. Vasif Abiyev & Reşat Ceylan & Munise Ilıkkan Özgür, 2015. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Business Cycle: A Markov Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 8(2), pages 7-18, October.
    75. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "A Model of Sustainable Growth with Renewables( Wind, CS, Algae) in Africa Europe Relation," MPRA Paper 74515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2015. "Valuing commodity options and futures options with changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 524-533.
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    79. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    80. Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND OIL SHOCKS: ARE THE 1970s COMING BACK?," Post-Print hal-00720578, HAL.
    81. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Price relationships in crude oil futures: new evidence from CFTC disaggregated data," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 15(2), pages 133-170, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Greg Tkacz & Sarah Hu, 1999. "Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks," Staff Working Papers 99-3, Bank of Canada.
    2. Rather, Sartaj Rasool & Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2015. "Asymmetric price adjustment – evidence for India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 73-79.
    3. Mark A. Thompson, 2006. "Asymmetric adjustment in the prime lending–deposit rate spread," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 323-329.
    4. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2013. "Are there Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in India?," MPRA Paper 53059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Karras, Georgios & Stokes, Houston H., 1999. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Evidence from prices, consumption, and investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 713-727.
    6. Nicholas C.S. Sim, 2009. "Modeling Quantile Dependence: A New Look at the Money-Output Relationship," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2009-34, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    7. Fuchun Li & Pierre St-Amant, 2010. "Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity," Staff Working Papers 10-12, Bank of Canada.
    8. Cook, S., 2004. "On the Detection of Business Cycles Asymmetry in 22 Countries, 1870-1994," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1).
    9. Seewon Kim, 2018. "Effects of Monetary Policy during Financial Market Crises and Regime Changes: An Empirical Evaluation Using a Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 105-123, June.
    10. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2016. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Working Papers 2016-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    11. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Chen, Li-Hsueh & Yuan, Yuan, 2011. "Asymmetric convergence and risk shift in the TED spreads," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 277-297.
    12. Walter Enders & Kamol Chumrusphonlert, 2004. "Threshold cointegration and purchasing power parity in the pacific nations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 889-896.
    13. Su, Chi Wei & Chang, Hsu Ling, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the Lending-Deposit Rate Spread: Evidence from Eastern European Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 165-175, July.
    14. Bitros, George C., 2021. "Destabilizing asymmetries in central banking: With some enlightenment from money in classical Athens," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    15. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.
    16. Steven Cook, 2006. "A Disaggregated Analysis of Asymmetrical Behaviour in the UK Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 43(11), pages 2067-2074, October.
    17. Awijen, Haithem & Hammami, Sami, 2017. "Financial frictions and regime switching: The role of collateral asset in emerging stock market," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C. & Yu, Byung Chul, 2013. "Asymmetric adjustments in the spread of lending and deposit rates: Evidence from extended threshold unit root tests," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 187-193.
    19. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    20. Mark J. Holmes & Ping Wang, 2005. "Do African Countries Move Asymmetrically Towards Purchasing Power Parity?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(2), pages 292-301, June.
    21. Randall E. Parker & Phillip Rothman & Original: August 2000. This version: June 2003., "undated". "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre-World War I and Interwar Periods," Working Papers 0011, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    22. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Ioannis Pragidis & Periklis Gogas & Benjamin Tabak, 2013. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in the U.S. and Brazil," Working Papers Series 340, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    24. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2010. "Asymmetry dynamics in real exchange rates: New results on East Asian currencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 648-661, October.
    25. Olanrewaju, Akanbi Michael & Temitope, Dada James, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Industrial Output in Nigeria: A Dynamic Effect," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 6(1), January.
    26. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    27. Theo Panagiotidis & Mark J Holmes, 2005. "Sustainability and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning Behaviour of the US Current Account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    28. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    29. Greg Tkacz, 2002. "Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects," Staff Working Papers 02-40, Bank of Canada.
    30. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2006. "Are international real interest rate linkages characterized by asymmetric adjustments?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 384-396, October.
    31. Jonathan Chiu & Miguel Molico, 2020. "Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange," Staff Working Papers 20-48, Bank of Canada.
    32. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2013. "A Note on Differential Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply and Policy Rate Shocks in India," MPRA Paper 53058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    34. Walter Enders & Selahattin Dibooglu, 2001. "Long‐Run Purchasing Power Parity with Asymmetric Adjustment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(2), pages 433-445, October.
    35. Liu, Yamei, 2000. "Overfitting and forecasting: linear versus non-linear time series models," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014914, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    36. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2007. "Are Nominal Exchange Rates and Price Levels Co‐Integrated? New Evidence from Threshold Autoregressive and Momentum‐Threshold Autoregressive Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 74-85, March.
    37. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Endogenous thresholds and tests for asymmetry in US prime rate movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 207-211, November.
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    42. Chong-Chuo Chang & Kuen-Shiou Yang, 2021. "Loose monetary policy and firm uncertainty," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-27, March.
    43. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    44. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
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    53. Alper YILMAZ, 2024. "Bilateral J-Curve Between Türkiye and Its Major Non-EU Trading Partners: Evidence from Both Linear and Non-Linear Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 32(60).
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  31. Bell, Clive & Rich, Robert, 1994. "Rural Poverty and Aggregate Agricultural Performance in Post-independence India," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 111-133, May.

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    1. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1995. "Growth and poverty in rural India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1405, The World Bank.
    2. Sushanta K. Mallick, 2014. "Disentangling the Poverty Effects of Sectoral Output, Prices, and Policies in India," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 773-801, December.
    3. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1997. "Why have some Indian states performed better than others at reducing rural poverty?," FCND discussion papers 26, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Andrew Goudie & Paul Ladd, 1999. "Economic growth, poverty and inequality," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 177-195.
    5. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay, 2006. "Rich States, Poor States: Convergence and Polarisation in India," Economics Series Working Papers 266, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Tarlok Singh, 2022. "Economic growth and the state of poverty in India: sectoral and provincial perspectives," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1251-1302, August.
    7. Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 2002. "Is India's economic growth leaving the poor behind?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2846, The World Bank.
    8. Hertweck, Matthias & Brey, Bjoern, 2017. "The Persistent Effects of Monsoon Rainfall Shocks in India: A Nonlinear VAR Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168256, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Arne Bigsten & Jörgen Levin, 2001. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-129, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Mukherjee, Anit N. & Kuroda, Yoshimi, 2002. "Convergence in rural development: evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 385-398.
    11. Arne Bigsten & Jörgen Levin, 2010. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty: A Review," Working Papers id:3296, eSocialSciences.
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    14. Baba, Sajad H. & Saini, A.S. & Sharma, K.D. & Thakur, D.R., 2010. "Impact of Investment on Agricultural Growth and Rural Development in Himachal Pradesh: Dynamics of Public and Private Investment," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65(1), pages 1-24.
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    17. Kuldeep Singh & Madhvendra Misra, 2021. "Developing an agricultural entrepreneur inclination model for sustainable agriculture by integrating expert mining and ISM–MICMAC," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5122-5150, April.
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    19. Thath, Rido, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Land and Labor Productivity on Poverty: The Case of Rice Farming Households in Cambodia," MPRA Paper 70920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    23. Kumar, Anjani & Kumar, Praduman & Sharma, Alakh N., 2011. "Rural Poverty and Agricultural Growth in India: Implications for the Twelfth Five Year Plan," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(3), pages 1-10.

  32. Rich, Robert W. & Raymond, Jennie E. & Butler, J. S., 1993. "Testing for measurement errors in expectations from survey data : An instrumental variables approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-10.

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    1. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.

  33. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.

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    1. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," NBER Working Papers 7731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christofides, L. & Peng, C., 2004. "Contract Duration and Indexation in a Period of Real and Nominal Uncertainty," Working Papers 2004-3, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Christian D. Dick & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2010-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    5. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    7. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    8. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modelling multi‐period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219, December.
    9. Kapuściński, Mariusz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2018. "Measuring bank funding costs in the analysis of interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-300.
    10. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hassan Heidari & Salih Turan Katircioglu & Sahar Bashiri, 2013. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth in the Iranian economy: an application of BGARCH-M model with BEKK approach," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 819-832, November.
    12. ChiUng Song & Bryan L. Boulier & Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions," Working Papers 2008-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    14. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
    15. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
    16. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    17. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    18. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.

  34. Rich, Robert W. & Raymond, Jennie & Butler, J. S., 1991. "Generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 179-185, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.
    2. Beum-Jo Park, 2009. "Risk-return relationship in equity markets: using a robust GMM estimator for GARCH-M models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 93-104.
    3. Todd, Prono, 2010. "Simple GMM Estimation of the Semi-Strong GARCH(1,1) Model," MPRA Paper 20034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit," HWWA Discussion Papers 57, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    5. Marwan Al-Momani & Abdaljbbar B. A. Dawod, 2022. "Model Selection and Post Selection to Improve the Estimation of the ARCH Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Todd Prono, 2009. "Market proxies, correlation, and relative mean-variance efficiency: still living with the roll critique," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU09-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Chihwa Kao, 2001. "Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration Heteroskedasticity Models with Estimates of the Variances of Foreign Exchange Rates," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 34, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    8. Todd, Prono, 2009. "Simple, Skewness-Based GMM Estimation of the Semi-Strong GARCH(1,1) Model," MPRA Paper 30994, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jul 2011.
    9. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 1999. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,21, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    10. Bruce Felmincham & Peter Mansfield, 1997. "Rationality and the Risk Premium on the Australian dollar," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 47-59.
    11. Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluss von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstatigkeit," Discussion Paper Series 26305, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    12. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    14. Dinghai Xu, 2012. "Continuous Empirical Characteristic Function Estimation of GARCH Models," Working Papers 1204, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised May 2012.
    15. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.
    16. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2008. "A Tour in the Asymptotic Theory of GARCH Estimation," Working Papers 2008-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

  35. Rich, Robert W, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 682-686, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. El in Ayka Alp & Zeynep Biyik, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Dynamics: A Structural Long-run Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 350-356.
    3. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
    4. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
    5. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    6. Miah, Fazlul & Rahman, M. Saifur & Albinali, Khalid, 2016. "Rationality of survey based inflation expectations: A study of 18 emerging economies’ inflation forecasts," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 158-166.
    7. David Elkayam & Alex Ilek, 2009. "The information content of inflationary expectations derived from bond prices in Israel," Advances in Econometrics, in: Measurement Error: Consequences, Applications and Solutions, pages 61-89, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    10. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Forecasting the South African Inflation Rate: On Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality," Working Papers 201475, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Dahl Christian M. & Hansen Niels L., 2001. "The Formation of Inflation Expectations under Changing Inflation Regimes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 1-31, January.
    12. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    13. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    14. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Marc Simpson & Sanjay Ramchander, 2002. "Is differential sentiment a cause of closed-end country fund premia? An empirical examination of the Australian case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(9), pages 615-619.
    16. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 1999. "Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 331-338, March.

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