IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v69y2024icp475-487.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt sustainability and policy targets: Full employment or structural balance? A simulation for the Spanish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Uxó, Jorge
  • Febrero, Eladio
  • Ayala, Iván
  • Villanueva, Paloma

Abstract

The idea that Spain should reduce its structural fiscal deficit has been playing a crucial role in determining the orientation of its fiscal policy for the past three decades, in line with the European fiscal rules. Nevertheless, relying on unobservable variables for its estimation might lead to an underestimation of potential GDP and to the application of pro-cyclical measures in times of crisis. Following the Updated Okun Method to estimate an alternative measure of potential GDP, which targets full employment, we simulate alternative fiscal policy scenarios for Spain from 2023 to 2028. Our results point to a better performance, both in terms of public debt sustainability and reduction of the unemployment rate, when focusing on an unemployment rate target rather than on the reduction of the structural fiscal balance. This suggests a departure from this indicator in guiding fiscal policy orientation in the context of the reform of the European fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Uxó, Jorge & Febrero, Eladio & Ayala, Iván & Villanueva, Paloma, 2024. "Debt sustainability and policy targets: Full employment or structural balance? A simulation for the Spanish economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 475-487.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:69:y:2024:i:c:p:475-487
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.03.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X24000419
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2024.03.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Achim Truger, 2015. "The Fiscal Compact, Cyclical Adjustment and the Remaining Leeway for Expansionary Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 157-175, June.
    3. Matteo Deleidi & Claudia Fontanari & Santiago José Gahn, 2023. "Autonomous demand and technical change: exploring the Kaldor–Verdoorn law on a global level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 57-80, April.
    4. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2017. "The performativity of potential output: pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 904-928, September.
    5. Bilbao-Ubillos, Javier, 2023. "Lessons learned from poor governance: A comparison of the EU strategies for exiting the crises of 2008 and 2020," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 372-379.
    6. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2022. "The updated Okun method for estimation of potential output with alternative measures of labor underutilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 158-178.
    7. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    8. Daniele Girardi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2020. "Reverse hysteresis? Persistent effects of autonomous demand expansions," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(4), pages 835-869.
    9. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2018. "Which Fiscal Multipliers Are Regime‐Dependent? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1160-1182, September.
    10. Antonella Palumbo, 2013. "Potential Output and Demand-Led Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Enrico Sergio Levrero & Antonella Palumbo & Antonella Stirati (ed.), Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume Two, chapter 4, pages 92-119, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Jorge Uxó & Ignacio Álvarez & Eladio Febrero, 2018. "Fiscal space on the eurozone periphery and the use of the (partially) balanced-budget multiplier: The case of Spain," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 99-125, January.
    12. Heimberger, Philipp & Kapeller, Jakob & Schütz, Bernhard, 2017. "The NAIRU determinants: What’s structural about unemployment in Europe?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 883-908.
    13. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    14. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    15. Nicolas Carnot & Francisco de Castro, 2015. "The Discretionary Fiscal Effort: An Assessment of Fiscal Policy and Its Output Effect," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 63-94, December.
    16. Philipp Engler & Mathias Klein, 2017. "Austerity Measures Amplified Crisis in Spain, Portugal, and Italy," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 7(8), pages 89-93.
    17. Robert Solow, 2018. "A theory is a sometime thing," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 421-424, October.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Alvaro Leandro & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2021. "Redesigning EU fiscal rules: from rules to standards," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(106), pages 195-236.
    19. David Rosnick & Mark Weisbrot, 2015. "Has Austerity Worked in Spain?," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2015-27, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    20. Atanas Hristov & Rafal Raciborski & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2017. "Assessment of the Plausibility of the Output Gap Estimates," European Economy - Economic Briefs 023, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Stefano di Bucchianico, 2019. "A bit of Keynesian debt-to-GDP arithmetic for deficit-capped countries," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(1), pages 55-83, June.
    22. Anna Cororaton & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2011. "How does slack influence inflation?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(June).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandr Arsenev & Meryem Gökten & Philipp Heimberger & Andreas Lichtenberger, 2024. "Vollbeschäftigung: Theorie, Empirie und Policy-Programme," wiiw Research Reports in German language 28, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    2. Gökten, Meryem & Heimberger, Philipp & Lichtenberger, Andreas, 2024. "How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    4. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2024. "Okun vs. Verdoorn: distinguishing between cyclical and structural effects of output on productivity," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 295-325, July.
    5. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    6. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    7. Servaas Storm, 2021. "Labour's loss: Why macroeconomics matters," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(299), pages 249-285.
    8. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    9. Davide Romaniello, 2022. "Unemployment gap, isteresi e disoccupazione di lunga durata: quale ruolo nella comprensione dell'inflazione? (Unemployment gap, hysteresis and long-term unemployment: which role in explaining inflatio," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 75(299), pages 267-283.
    10. Christian Breuer, 2021. "Structural Indicators and the Fiscal Uncertainty Principle," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(4), pages 182-183, July.
    11. Schuster, Florian & Krahé, Max & Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa, 2021. "Wird die Konjunkturkomponente der Schuldenbremse in ihrer heutigen Ausgestaltung ihrer Aufgabe noch gerecht? Analyse und ein Reformvorschlag," Papers 277885, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    12. Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Here to Stay? The Return of Fiscal Policy and Challenges for the EU Governance," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 13(1-2).
    13. Sebastian Gechert, 2023. "Fiscal policy: post- or New Keynesian?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 338-355, November.
    14. Philipp Heimberger, 2024. "Fiscal consolidation and its growth effects in euro area countries: Past, present and future outlook," FMM Working Paper 109-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Kristóf Lehmann & Olivér Nagy & Zoltán Szalai & Balázs H. Váradi, 2020. "Coordination(?) between Branches of Economic Policy across Euro Area," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(1), pages 37-64.
    16. Davide Romaniello & Antonella Stirati, 2024. "Cost-push and conflict inflation in theory and practice - with a discussion of the Italian case," FMM Working Paper 96-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    17. Davide Romaniello, 2021. "Note bibliografiche: Stirati A. (2020), Lavoro e salari. Un punto di vista alternativo sulla crisi, Roma: Ed. L’asino d’oro, pp. 279, ISBN:9788864435367," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 74(293), pages 87-93.
    18. Carl Mühlbach, 2022. "Ein Update für die europäischen Fiskalregeln [The European Fiscal Rules Need Major Reforms]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(6), pages 456-460, June.
    19. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2022. "Growing differently? Financial cycles, austerity, and competitiveness in growth models since the Global Financial Crisis," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 1314-1341, July.
    20. Koray Yıldırım & Neşe Algan & Harun Bal, 2024. "Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 143-176, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:69:y:2024:i:c:p:475-487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.