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Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?

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  • Clements, Michael P.

Abstract

We consider whether it is possible to determine if macro forecasters are attempting to forecast first estimates of data, or revised estimates. Our approach requires that data revisions are predictable prior to the first estimate being released. There is some evidence that this condition is met for some series, and that some forecasters put some weight on later estimates for consumers’ expenditure and the GDP deflator.

Suggested Citation

  • Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1240-1249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.11.009
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    9. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.

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