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International Evidence on Time-Variation in Trend Labor Productivity Growth

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  • Philipp Wegmueller

Abstract

This paper provides international evidence on time-variation in trend productivity growth, based on the dataset for hours worked constructed by Ohanian & Raffo (2012). Applying both the endogenous break tests of Bai & Perron (1998, 2003) and the Stock & Watson (1996, 1998) TVP-MUB methodology, substantial evidence of time-variation in trend productivity growth is detected for most countries. For either Japan, or countries belonging to the Eurozone, evidence points towards a significant growth decline over the last several decades. Weaker evidence is reported for the United States, for which the 1990 s productivity acceleration is estimated to have been overall mild, and of a temporary nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Wegmueller, 2015. "International Evidence on Time-Variation in Trend Labor Productivity Growth," Diskussionsschriften dp1602, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1602
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      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Friesenbichler, Klaus S. & Glocker, Christian, 2019. "Tradability and productivity growth differentials across EU Member States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker, 2021. "Österreichs Investitionsperformance im internationalen und sektoralen Vergleich. Erste Analysen zur COVID-19-Krise," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67163, March.
    5. Bhattarai, Keshab & Qin, Weiguang, 2022. "Convergence in labor productivity across provinces and production sectors in China," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    6. Thomet, Jacqueline & Wegmueller, Philipp, 2021. "Technology Shocks And Hours Worked: A Cross-Country Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 1020-1052, June.
    7. Glocker, Christian & Sestieri, Giulia & Towbin, Pascal, 2019. "Time-varying government spending multipliers in the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 180-197.
    8. Polbin, Andrey V. (Полбин, Андрей В.), 2020. "Estimating Time-Varying Long-Run Growth Rate of Russian GDP in the ARX Model with Oil Prices [Оценка Траектории Темпов Трендового Роста Ввп России В Arx-Модели С Ценами На Нефть]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 40-63, February.
    9. Alina Szewc-Rogalska & Tomasz Jakiel, 2021. "Zmiany strukturalne a wydajność pracy w krajach Europy Środkowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 63-96.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor productivity; structural break tests; time-varying parameters; median-unbiased estimation; bootstrapping; Monte Carlo integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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