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Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures

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  • Christian Glocker

    (WIFO)

  • Werner Hölzl

Abstract

We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct measure of economic uncertainty has a decent contemporaneous correlation with various indirect measures, its informational content is though different. Across all uncertainty measures, shocks to uncertainty trigger effects in GDP of opposite sign, however, the indirect measures tend to significantly underestimate the effects on GDP and other macroeconomic aggregates.

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  • Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2019:i:576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
    3. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
    4. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    5. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Economic Assessments of Austrian Companies in the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 4, February.
    6. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Geschäftstätigkeit durch Arbeitskräftemangel und Lieferengpässe beeinträchtigt. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(11), pages 793-802, November.
    7. Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Agnes Kügler & Andreas Reinstaller, 2021. "Unternehmerische Unsicherheit und wirtschaftspolitische Risikofaktoren in der COVID-19-Krise. Ergebnisse des Updates der WIFO-Industriebefragung vom Sommer 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(6), pages 461-470, June.
    9. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2020. "Konjunktureinschätzung bleibt über Sektoren hinweg uneinheitlich. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Jänner 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(2), pages 89-99, February.
    10. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2019. "Konjunktur schwächt sich weiter ab. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(11), pages 807-819, November.
    11. Wifo, 2021. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 6/2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(6), June.
    12. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Konjunktureinschätzungen verbessern sich weiter, Lieferengpässe und Arbeitskräftemangel hemmen die Produktion. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Juli 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(8), pages 587-595, August.
    13. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "“Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty”," AQR Working Papers 2012003, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2020.
    14. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Zweite COVID-19-Welle bestimmt Konjunkturbeurteilung der Unternehmen. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Jänner 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(2), pages 105-114, February.
    15. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Labour Shortages and Supply Bottlenecks Hamper Business Activity. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 14, November.
    16. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2020. "Konjunktureinschätzung stürzt infolge der COVID-19-Pandemie ab. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(5), pages 337-345, May.
    17. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Economic Sentiment Continues to Brighten, Supply Bottlenecks and Labour Shortages Hamper Production. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of July 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 10, August.
    18. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Konjunktureinschätzungen verbessern sich, Lieferengpässe hemmen die Produktion. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(5), pages 361-370, May.

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