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The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear

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  • Patrick C. Higgins

Abstract

The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick C. Higgins, 2021. "The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2021(11), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:a00068:96622
    DOI: 10.29338/ph2021-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2017. "Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 442-457.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; unemployment; labor markets; Phillips curve; regional data; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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