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Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Tosapol Apaitan

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Pongsak Luangaram

    (Chulalongkorn University)

  • Pym Manopimoke

    (Bank of Thailand)

Abstract

This paper constructs various measures of domestic and global uncertainty and provides a comprehensive study of their impacts on the Thai economy. Based on a small open economy VAR, global uncertainty delivers deeper and more long-lasting effects when compared to within-country ones. In addition, we find that uncertainty shocks first generate sudden and large declines for stock prices and foreign portfolio investment, before gradually affecting the real economy through investment and trade channels. There is also meaningful heterogeneity among different types of domestic uncertainty. While financial uncertainty matters most for the Thai economy overall, consumption demand largely responds to macroeconomic uncertainty, while economic policy and political uncertainty generates the most persistent effects on investment. Furthermore, fiscal policy uncertainty is a key driver of trade flows while monetary policy uncertainty plays an important role for capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:62:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-021-02054-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-021-02054-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic; Financial; Political; Policy; News-based; Uncertainty; Emerging market; Small open economy; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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