IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/93874.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness

Author

Listed:
  • Robert W. Rich
  • Randal J. Verbrugge
  • Saeed Zaman

Abstract

Median and trimmed-mean inflation rates tend to be useful estimates of trend inflation over long periods, but they can exhibit persistent departures from the underlying trend over shorter horizons. In this Commentary, we document that the extent of this bias is related to the degree of skewness in the distribution of price changes. The shift in the skewness of the cross-sectional price-change distribution during the pandemic means that median PCE and trimmed-mean PCE inflation rates have recently been understating the trend in PCE inflation by about 15 and 35 basis points, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Rich & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(05), pages 1-7, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:93874
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202205
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-ec-202205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "An evaluation of the decline in goods inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q II), pages 19-51.
    2. Amy Higgins & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2015. "Tracking Trend Inflation: Nonseasonally Adjusted Variants of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers (Old Series) 1527, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
    4. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Randal J. Verbrugge, 2021. "Is It Time to Reassess the Focal Role of Core PCE Inflation?," Working Papers 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    2. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2024. "Improving inflation forecasts using robust measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 735-745.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    2. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2024. "Improving inflation forecasts using robust measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 735-745.
    4. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 770-784, October.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 847, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2019-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    8. Giri, Federico, 2022. "The relationship between headline, core, and energy inflation: A wavelet investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    9. Paulo Picchetti & Fabio Kanczuk, 2001. "An Application of Quah And Vaheys Svar Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in Brazil," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 019, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester, 2006. "Core inflation as a predictor of total inflation," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Apr.
    11. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, 2006. "Some Measures of Core Inflation and Their Evaluations in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 18, pages 37-69, April.
    12. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December.
    13. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:n:2:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Byeongdeuk Jang & Young Se Kim, 2017. "Driving Forces of Inflation Expectations," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 33, pages 207-237.
    17. James B. Bullard, 2011. "Measuring inflation: the core is rotten," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(July), pages 223-234.
    18. Mio, Hitoshi, 2002. "Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, January.
    19. Todd E. Clark, 2001. "Comparing measures of core inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q II), pages 5-31.
    20. Scott Roger, 1997. "A robust measure of core inflation in New Zealand, 1949-96," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    21. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:93874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.