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Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness

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  • Robert W. Rich
  • Randal J. Verbrugge
  • Saeed Zaman

Abstract

Median and trimmed-mean inflation rates tend to be useful estimates of trend inflation over long periods, but they can exhibit persistent departures from the underlying trend over shorter horizons. In this Commentary, we document that the extent of this bias is related to the degree of skewness in the distribution of price changes. The shift in the skewness of the cross-sectional price-change distribution during the pandemic means that median PCE and trimmed-mean PCE inflation rates have recently been understating the trend in PCE inflation by about 15 and 35 basis points, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Rich & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(05), pages 1-7, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:93874
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202205
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amy Higgins & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2015. "Tracking Trend Inflation: Nonseasonally Adjusted Variants of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers (Old Series) 1527, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "An evaluation of the decline in goods inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q II), pages 19-51.
    4. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
    5. Randal J. Verbrugge, 2021. "Is It Time to Reassess the Focal Role of Core PCE Inflation?," Working Papers 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    2. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2024. "Improving inflation forecasts using robust measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 735-745.

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