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Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?

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  • Thomas Walther
  • Lanouar Charfeddine
  • Tony Klein

Abstract

This paper contributes to the large debate regarding the impact of oil price changes on U.S. GDP growth. Firstly, it replicates empirical findings of prominent studies and finds that the proposed oil price measures have a dissipating effect with recent data up to 2016Q4. Secondly, it re-examines the issue and provides evidence that oil price decreases affect the GDP growth, when taking into consideration mixed data sampling technique. Finally, it puts particular focus on nonlinearity and a possible instability and shows that combining Markov switching and mixed data sampling models allows to identify different regimes permanently changing with the Great Moderation.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Walther & Lanouar Charfeddine & Tony Klein, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," Working Papers on Finance 1816, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2018:16
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    2. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-40, April.
    3. El Montasser, Ghassen & Malek Belhoula, Mohamed & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2023. "Co-explosivity versus leading effects: Evidence from crude oil and agricultural commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Sang-Uk Jung, 2020. "The Strategy of South Korea in the Global Oil Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-8, May.
    5. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2020. "Reviewing the oil price–GDP growth relationship: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Wang, Yudong & Pan, Zhiyuan & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2019. "Oil price increases and the predictability of equity premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 43-58.
    7. Emrah Ismail Cevik & Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım & Sel Dibooglu, 2021. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the US: A Markov-Switching VAR analysis," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(3), pages 519-541, May.
    8. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben & Mrabet, Zouhair, 2019. "The forward premium anomaly in the energy futures markets: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 600-615.
    9. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2020. "Reviewing the oil price–GDP growth relationship: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; GDP growth; Asymmetry; Nonlinearity; Markov switching models; Mixed Data Sampling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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